TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spurs vs. Thunder: Team to Score First

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Spursof Spurs, Thunder
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,261
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,556

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,261 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x49c8…3c52backed Thunder54c6,000$3,230 inLost-$3,2301361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd60…396cbacked Thunder53c5,787$3,067 inLost-$3,066.915657.1%32 W · 24 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+22.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb6b3…9441backed Thunder48c4,960$2,390 inLost-$2,390.310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd88d…ac20backed Spurs49c3,043$1,494 inWon+$1,549.29875%6 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+89.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc54d…05f6backed Thunder50c1,472$734 inLost-$734.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc8f…d0e4backed Thunder14c455.02$63 inLost-$63.452532%8 W · 17 L+3.6wins+0.15per pick17cpaid+95.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x90d4…2deebacked Thunder15c303.28$46 inLost-$45.611643.8%7 W · 9 L+4.2wins+0.26per pick18cpaid+168.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Spurs50c300$150 inWon+$1501,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc235…99f8backed Thunder53c220$117 inLost-$116.612146.3%56 W · 65 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f76…dcc9backed Thunder29c213.77$61 inLost-$61.54136.6%15 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Thunder51c180$92 inLost-$91.810747.7%51 W · 56 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Thunder47c165.39$78 inLost-$77.7484443%363 W · 481 L-40.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc392…595dbacked Spurs52c122.91$64 inWon+$59.0940548.4%196 W · 209 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed Spurs60c92.27$55 inWon+$37.2119555.4%108 W · 87 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5690…7a58backed Thunder14c76.27$11 inLost-$10.7130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5345…666abacked Thunder48c72.92$35 inLost-$356942%29 W · 40 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid+30.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96c1…2c59backed Thunder40c50$20 inLost-$2027945.9%128 W · 151 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Thunder40c40.09$16 inLost-$16.0460049.8%299 W · 301 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30f6…004fbacked Thunder46c35.44$16 inLost-$16.413551.4%18 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x39db…d2dbbacked Thunder48c30.9$15 inLost-$14.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91ac…5ff3backed Spurs52c23.68$12 inWon+$11.375129.4%15 W · 36 L-7.8wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-30.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x66ab…a6e3backed Spurs76c17$13 inWon+$4.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 44 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.