TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-11.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Spursof Thunder, Spurs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$196,913
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$204,560

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $196,913 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfea3…d227backed Spurs76c130,585$99,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,562.1915644.9%70 W · 86 L-9.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe5b7…5ee3backed Thunder24c70,000$16,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,80011333.6%38 W · 75 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Thunder24c35,000$8,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,399.9872648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e1d…0c53backed Thunder25c10,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50011447.4%54 W · 60 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Spurs76c7,943$6,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,879.1764948.2%313 W · 336 L-3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2b3c…8039backed Spurs77c7,423$5,715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,708.491464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+55.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x82ba…0a52backed Thunder25c6,800$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7002832.1%9 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb10b…0b04backed Thunder25c6,666$1,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,666.493116.1%5 W · 26 L-4.5wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-58.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x55b6…09e2backed Spurs76c5,461$4,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,335.795158.8%30 W · 21 L+7.1wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+29.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Thunder24c5,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20056843.8%249 W · 319 L-25.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Thunder24c4,166$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.841,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder24c2,407$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.556,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Thunder5c2,105$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.112,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Thunder17c2,019$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.238,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Thunder24c1,600$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3901,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3c7…d601backed Thunder26c1,347$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3503043.3%13 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-13.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f30…3aeebacked Spurs76c1,168$888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.314450%22 W · 22 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Spurs76c1,145$870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.7490560.8%550 W · 355 L-2.1wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8081…95cabacked Thunder4c1,088$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.341711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-45.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Thunder11c1,044$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.8168838.5%265 W · 423 L-26.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Thunder24c986.03$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.5819959.3%118 W · 81 L+22.0wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+27.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5453…65cebacked Thunder26c974.99$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2503348.5%16 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Thunder23c930.68$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.0652150.9%265 W · 256 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9aa7…e3d9backed Thunder24c817.99$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.463218.8%6 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-46.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Thunder12c814.71$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.791,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe56b…2c03backed Thunder25c800$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2007247.2%34 W · 38 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Thunder13c700$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11a2…db39backed Thunder15c636.6$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.491118.2%2 W · 9 L-3.6wins-0.33per pick51cpaid-67.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf285…ab24backed Thunder23c533.73$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.76450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5ed…9bb9backed Spurs76c486.84$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.841656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46d1…8d0ebacked Thunder25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001010%1 W · 9 L-4.3wins-0.43per pick53cpaid-86.1%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Thunder8c372.2$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0189048.8%434 W · 456 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x871a…7be4backed Spurs77c324.09$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.5417359%102 W · 71 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Thunder24c250.3$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.0760049.8%299 W · 301 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe80f…b81bbacked Spurs76c243.86$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.537562.7%47 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd37…e117backed Thunder17c235.29$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404531.1%14 W · 31 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4596…12d5backed Spurs78c231.4$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.41428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-51.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9aca…61fdbacked Spurs75c200.03$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.013256.3%18 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa06f…cbadbacked Spurs75c200$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503773%27 W · 10 L+4.5wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+22.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc392…595dbacked Thunder30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6040548.4%196 W · 209 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54ab…e652backed Thunder25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504235.7%15 W · 27 L-4.6wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-23.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Thunder7c199.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1441227.4%113 W · 299 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+94.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4523…0be0backed Thunder20c199.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403339.4%13 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x119d…bec3backed Thunder26c194.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+30.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x11c9…1184backed Thunder25c180$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4560%0 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x61cd…541ebacked Spurs80c179.38$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.883164.5%20 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Spurs76c151.05$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.2584443%363 W · 481 L-40.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Thunder25c142.59$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.041,39946.4%649 W · 750 L-13.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc88…87adbacked Spurs76c140.89$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa370…f228backed Spurs76c131.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.581758.8%10 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick70cpaid-20.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9808…3cccbacked Spurs77c129.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.873066.7%20 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x49f0…285fbacked Thunder25c124.42$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.21921.1%4 W · 15 L-5.9wins-0.31per pick52cpaid-61.1%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xc789…7972backed Thunder25c120.4$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3016146.6%75 W · 86 L+8.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc235…99f8backed Thunder24c108.08$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3712146.3%56 W · 65 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4512…5d41backed Thunder25c104$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2621637.5%81 W · 135 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b31…b2a3backed Thunder25c101.14$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.291764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+45.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4b5f…480abacked Thunder25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251915.8%3 W · 16 L-4.5wins-0.24per pick40cpaid-58.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Spurs78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225369.8%37 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick64cpaid+29.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Thunder25c97.23$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.881,27747.2%603 W · 674 L-3.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a48…7bbebacked Thunder26c77.54$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+76.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb76e…36e1backed Thunder26c73.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.640%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x27f9…1d42backed Thunder14c72$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e22…c00dbacked Thunder25c70.8$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-47.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x38dc…cabbbacked Spurs76c65.9$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.82837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-27.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd306…463dbacked Spurs76c65.79$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.799355.9%52 W · 41 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e31…0e6ebacked Spurs76c65.79$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.792669.2%18 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick73cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fd6…81f6backed Spurs76c65.32$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.681782.4%14 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick73cpaid+15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5fb…6b9cbacked Thunder25c60$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151060%6 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+51.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e86…5899backed Spurs77c59.74$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.743256.3%18 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc50b…6cc6backed Thunder24c55.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.442245.5%10 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-16.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9883…1d31backed Thunder26c50.96$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.253641.7%15 W · 21 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-20.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x65af…df77backed Thunder25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1012147.9%58 W · 63 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe14f…8581backed Thunder25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103148.4%15 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd801…1ecfbacked Thunder25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+22.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f53…d5abbacked Thunder25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x64a7…2133backed Thunder25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a1f…313ebacked Spurs76c39.47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.47333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick69cpaid-56.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa68d…eab5backed Spurs77c38.96$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.963050%15 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95f4…b8b0backed Spurs76c26.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.32250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x517a…6491backed Spurs77c25.4$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.912653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9892…fd59backed Spurs77c19.48$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.482763%17 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+26.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e23…94b2backed Spurs77c18.5$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.265246.2%24 W · 28 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8255…cba9backed Spurs75c17.03$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.261145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad77…d9c4backed Spurs78c13.58$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.99450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 44 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.