TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$52,073
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$52,137

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,073 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x70b2…5805backed Yes0c50,041$70 inLost-$704647.8%22 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Yes47c999.99$470 inLost-$469.9984342.9%362 W · 481 L-39.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x556c…93cebacked No53c400$212 inWon+$18824949%122 W · 127 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ad8…b8dbbacked No53c358$190 inWon+$168.262272.7%16 W · 6 L+4.3wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+42.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x05e0…e2cbbacked No53c245.28$130 inWon+$115.287153.5%38 W · 33 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes48c227.42$110 inLost-$109.5284443%363 W · 481 L-40.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9caf…e8bdbacked No50c183.8$91 inWon+$92.433049.1%162 W · 168 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15a6…bf5dbacked No51c174.39$89 inWon+$85.459348.4%45 W · 48 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd424…bf7bbacked Yes51c127.45$65 inLost-$655750.9%29 W · 28 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed No52c114.29$59 inWon+$55.4153842%226 W · 312 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29db…19c3backed Yes49c101.02$49 inLost-$49.51540%6 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe768…b331backed Yes47c99.99$47 inLost-$46.9939864.3%256 W · 142 L+33.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+12.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2baf…8023backed No50c66$33 inWon+$3343752.6%230 W · 207 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85ee…79a9backed Yes50c60$30 inLost-$303351.5%17 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed No52c55$29 inWon+$26.419959.3%118 W · 81 L+22.0wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+27.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked No52c41.5$22 inWon+$19.9285449.4%422 W · 432 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed No52c40$21 inWon+$19.296956.3%546 W · 423 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88d2…5517backed No52c38.21$20 inWon+$18.212240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed No53c37.74$20 inWon+$17.7466046.8%309 W · 351 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc770…8dbbbacked Yes48c30.21$15 inLost-$14.546150.8%31 W · 30 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb57b…6783backed Yes48c25$12 inLost-$121764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6659…792bbacked Yes50c20$10 inLost-$102445.8%11 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-17.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9785…2c5abacked No52c20$10 inWon+$9.64949%24 W · 25 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+26.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x93c9…3676backed No52c19.98$10 inWon+$9.631172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.23per pick49cpaid+49%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No73c17.67$13 inWon+$4.851,20051.6%619 W · 581 L+66.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 44 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.