NBA · resolved market
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 107.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41c24f50669df1d5eec28ea439957521a4424f7baf50bd25d438512fec28de26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,204
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,336
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,204 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 48c | 2,440$1,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170.97 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 52c | 1,800$936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864 | 329 | 57.4%189 W · 140 L | +18.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2e…5b64backed Under | 50c | 1,111$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.42 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72d3…cbf2backed Over | 50c | 1,103$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.5 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 123 | 6.5%8 W · 115 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Under | 19c | 673.37$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.15 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Under | 19c | 558$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.2 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Under | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 539 | 45.3%244 W · 295 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 57cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Under | 8c | 438.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 80 | 2.5%2 W · 78 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -88.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Over | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 96 | 28.1%27 W · 69 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc57…4148backed Over | 50c | 386.41$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.21 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Over | 78c | 378.77$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.27 | 21 | 95.2%20 W · 1 L | +6.8wins | +0.32per pick | 63cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 48c | 259.99$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 568 | 43.8%249 W · 319 L | -25.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…b652backed Under | 12c | 249.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 266 | 39.8%106 W · 160 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Under | 42c | 210.45$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.43 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Under | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Under | 12c | 199.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 404 | 40.1%162 W · 242 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Under | 12c | 199.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 212 | 42%89 W · 123 L | +12.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…b331backed Under | 48c | 195.32$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.13 | 398 | 64.3%256 W · 142 L | +33.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Over | 52c | 193.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.85 | 228 | 44.7%102 W · 126 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbf…900ebacked Under | 56c | 178.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8f…fd07backed Over | 56c | 178.12$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.18 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 48c | 176.88$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.67 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Under | 43c | 167.58$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.87 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +21.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +32%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Over | 76c | 166.96$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.73 | 250 | 45.6%114 W · 136 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc0…af1abacked Over | 50c | 153.62$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.63 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -7.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 48c | 132.43$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.44 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Over | 47c | 101.19$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.59 | 376 | 65.4%246 W · 130 L | +62.0wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0e…a1fabacked Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -11.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6de6…d900backed Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +5.2wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 49c | 97.43$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.74 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 51c | 94.44$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.27 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 49c | 85.88$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.41 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…f4c5backed Over | 60c | 65.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…44bcbacked Over | 21c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…c77cbacked Over | 51c | 49.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 128 | 50.8%65 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed Under | 79c | 43.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa24d…38b2backed Over | 50c | 41.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5218…7fc9backed Under | 49c | 40.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x970f…f167backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf59e…f0bfbacked Over | 63c | 34.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 50c | 24.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 407 | 50.6%206 W · 201 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Over | 45c | 23.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 156 | 63.5%99 W · 57 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…c629backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd013…5de5backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c30…34f5backed Under | 68c | 17.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 44 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 107.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-1.5)Spurs won
- Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Points O/U 7.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Points O/U 8.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Luguentz Dort: Rebounds O/U 0.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 30.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-9.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-2.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. ThunderSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 204.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 207.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: Odd/Even ScoreEven won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: Team to Score FirstSpurs won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.