TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,155
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,143

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,155 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8a26…937ebacked Yes59c4,258$2,500 inLost-$2,50011558.3%67 W · 48 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+88.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed No40c2,858$1,154 inWon+$1,704.0979650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed No49c1,489$737 inWon+$751.971,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Yes50c1,000$500 inLost-$50084342.9%362 W · 481 L-39.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb046…857cbacked No43c700$301 inWon+$3992157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+29.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No43c673.02$288 inWon+$385.2911145.9%51 W · 60 L+7.7wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2374…a426backed Yes51c343.49$175 inLost-$17514443.8%63 W · 81 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa0fd…a91ebacked Yes54c333.13$180 inLost-$1809353.8%50 W · 43 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed No47c214.98$101 inWon+$113.9478652.4%412 W · 374 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9caf…e8bdbacked No47c211.68$99 inWon+$112.4733049.1%162 W · 168 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked No50c200$100 inWon+$10017758.2%103 W · 74 L+11.0wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+11.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x755a…9748backed Yes54c196.67$106 inLost-$1065259.6%31 W · 21 L+6.3wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+35.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked No49c183.55$90 inWon+$93.6150346.5%234 W · 269 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked No46c171.67$79 inWon+$92.785449.4%422 W · 432 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4078…7d91backed Yes53c56.6$30 inLost-$305540%22 W · 33 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4388…9ce4backed Yes53c50.71$27 inLost-$26.8819952.3%104 W · 95 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x787a…d3abbacked Yes51c49.02$25 inLost-$2540%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdd3a…9993backed Yes48c43.6$21 inLost-$21.085451.9%28 W · 26 L-6.3wins-0.12per pick64cpaid-15.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb9fc…c14abacked Yes51c41.18$21 inLost-$212552%13 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed No49c40$20 inWon+$20.496956.3%546 W · 423 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b4e…cfe6backed Yes51c39.82$20 inLost-$20.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5be1…3371backed Yes51c39.22$20 inLost-$206947.8%33 W · 36 L-5.4wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-14.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe1e6…757abacked Yes51c39.22$20 inLost-$208148.1%39 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe35…6789backed Yes51c39.22$20 inLost-$2015054.7%82 W · 68 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2eb6…d381backed Yes51c39.22$20 inLost-$20728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick54cpaid-51.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd924…aff0backed Yes51c39.22$20 inLost-$20540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e53…922dbacked No52c38.46$20 inWon+$18.464254.8%23 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fa9…a36dbacked Yes52c38.11$20 inLost-$2024038.3%92 W · 148 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+2.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9cd…da0dbacked Yes51c34.9$18 inLost-$17.84647.8%22 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc770…8dbbbacked Yes51c30$15 inLost-$15.36150.8%31 W · 30 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc78b…5c76backed Yes53c28.3$15 inLost-$155736.8%21 W · 36 L-9.1wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-30.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5eb6…9e4dbacked Yes54c27.78$15 inLost-$156259.7%37 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x276b…add4backed Yes54c27.55$15 inLost-$1512451.6%64 W · 60 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed No45c25$11 inWon+$13.6619959.3%118 W · 81 L+22.0wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+27.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Yes51c20.43$10 inLost-$10.4222756.8%129 W · 98 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ff…46efbacked Yes77c19.45$15 inLost-$1560%0 W · 6 L-3.2wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 44 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.