TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,704
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,625

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,704 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9c76…c926backed No44c598.87$266 inWon+$333.112,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No44c398.21$176 inWon+$22290863.9%580 W · 328 L+80.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb502…9d8bbacked Yes56c398.21$222 inLost-$22230055.7%167 W · 133 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3d2…fe85backed No48c372.75$179 inWon+$193.831464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4b09…13d3backed Yes56c357.14$200 inLost-$2002334.8%8 W · 15 L-4.3wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-33.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3652…2c8bbacked Yes52c288.46$150 inLost-$1501154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Yes52c219.99$114 inLost-$114.456050.4%282 W · 278 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd04…a64abacked No48c208.33$100 inWon+$108.3318748.1%90 W · 97 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x804f…13abbacked Yes55c181.7$100 inLost-$1004942.9%21 W · 28 L-5.3wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-21.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3c32…7156backed No46c102.98$47 inWon+$55.6136153.5%193 W · 168 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1de9…9499backed Yes55c90.91$50 inLost-$5010636.8%39 W · 67 L-14.9wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-30.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x9736…43c7backed Yes55c90.27$50 inLost-$503754.1%20 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa415…6fb9backed No46c78.99$36 inWon+$42.6626147.1%123 W · 138 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cc5…838abacked Yes54c63.74$34 inLost-$34.421330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-3.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2baf…8023backed No44c61.69$27 inWon+$34.5543752.6%230 W · 207 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2055…4542backed No49c59.5$29 inWon+$30.3523130.3%70 W · 161 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85ee…79a9backed Yes54c55.07$30 inLost-$303351.5%17 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d53…e7aabacked Yes57c52.33$30 inLost-$307546.7%35 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes40c50$20 inLost-$19.759853.1%52 W · 46 L+9.3wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+8.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2045…c77cbacked Yes55c50$27 inLost-$27.512850.8%65 W · 63 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9caf…e8bdbacked No43c49.11$21 inWon+$28.0633049.1%162 W · 168 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed No48c41.67$20 inWon+$21.6766046.8%309 W · 351 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa3f…2508backed Yes60c41.48$25 inLost-$25250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7a1…7c9dbacked Yes51c39.99$20 inLost-$20.3913764.2%88 W · 49 L+15.2wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+22.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No60c39.7$24 inWon+$16.071,20051.6%619 W · 581 L+66.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa6a7…e5d4backed No47c35.93$17 inWon+$18.9118853.7%101 W · 87 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6659…792bbacked Yes56c35.71$20 inLost-$202445.8%11 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-17.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked No45c33.12$15 inWon+$18.1985449.4%422 W · 432 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed No40c30$12 inWon+$1833556.7%190 W · 145 L+26.4wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xca2b…3489backed No47c30$14 inWon+$15.911555.7%64 W · 51 L+10.1wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+15.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9287…3aa1backed Yes56c28$16 inLost-$15.68633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-24.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4078…7d91backed Yes54c27.78$15 inLost-$155540%22 W · 33 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed No46c25.66$12 inWon+$13.896956.3%546 W · 423 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd604…b3bfbacked Yes58c20$12 inLost-$11.6520%1 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.36per pick56cpaid-71.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 44 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.