NBA · resolved market
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac068c7d835e16621ad81748ba43a989e2e01ac676f77f244bb452c4f6d8a66e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,443
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,489
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,443 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes | 58c | 7,000$4,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,939.97 | 201 | 55.7%112 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked Yes | 53c | 2,583$1,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,213.94 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked No | 42c | 2,381$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked No | 42c | 1,745$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.69 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f5…c161backed No | 47c | 1,069$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 114 | 40.4%46 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23b1…8e10backed No | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa21a…c0c6backed No | 47c | 680.55$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.86 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed No | 42c | 521$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.82 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9caf…e8bdbacked Yes | 54c | 514.48$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.69 | 330 | 49.1%162 W · 168 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 40c | 429.72$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.98 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c06…aa42backed No | 47c | 425.73$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4031…92c8backed No | 47c | 401.42$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.67 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Yes | 53c | 370$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.7 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83b…44a2backed No | 46c | 296.81$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.5 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked No | 42c | 273.76$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.98 | 714 | 49.3%352 W · 362 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 45c | 250$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 854 | 49.4%422 W · 432 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 43c | 229.96$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.88 | 560 | 50.4%282 W · 278 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd68f…6fdfbacked No | 18c | 218.72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Yes | 58c | 216.15$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.77 | 199 | 59.3%118 W · 81 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…3824backed Yes | 61c | 213.62$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.62 | 151 | 49.7%75 W · 76 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a94…9e94backed Yes | 60c | 203.69$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a12…cba0backed Yes | 57c | 175.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.61 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05e0…e2cbbacked No | 42c | 166.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48b5…9167backed No | 45c | 146.93$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed No | 42c | 127$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.34 | 361 | 53.5%193 W · 168 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed No | 42c | 117$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 261 | 47.1%123 W · 138 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a1…0827backed No | 41c | 109.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43c0…51ffbacked No | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2055…4542backed No | 47c | 101.66$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…b331backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 398 | 64.3%256 W · 142 L | +33.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x424c…82b5backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0c…14cebacked Yes | 57c | 98$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.14 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8dd…5672backed No | 46c | 93.48$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…90c7backed Yes | 57c | 78.95$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…9ce4backed No | 42c | 71.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 199 | 52.3%104 W · 95 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed No | 42c | 66.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 525 | 52%273 W · 252 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a4…28bbbacked No | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked No | 43c | 61.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…c14abacked Yes | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6b…902bbacked No | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed No | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3834…d360backed Yes | 59c | 45.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65af…df77backed No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa9…a36dbacked No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 240 | 38.3%92 W · 148 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88d2…5517backed No | 45c | 44.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…479ebacked No | 47c | 42.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefd9…14d6backed No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd69e…3393backed No | 47c | 42.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Yes | 53c | 40.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 600 | 49.8%299 W · 301 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdecb…e058backed No | 46c | 39.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x294e…4982backed Yes | 61c | 39.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc78b…5c76backed No | 41c | 36.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -9.1wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c7…736bbacked Yes | 60c | 35.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f7…0140backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x284a…8759backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5aeb…42d4backed Yes | 58c | 31.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 275 | 39.6%109 W · 166 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed No | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7385…0199backed Yes | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked No | 46c | 24.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 157 | 53.5%84 W · 73 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…200ebacked Yes | 60c | 23.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Yes | 56c | 22.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…c986backed Yes | 57c | 17.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 44 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-1.5)Spurs won
- Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Points O/U 7.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Points O/U 8.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Luguentz Dort: Rebounds O/U 0.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 30.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-9.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-2.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. ThunderSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 107.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 204.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 207.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: Odd/Even ScoreEven won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: Team to Score FirstSpurs won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.