TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf67d…c986

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
560
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: NBA, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 55 out of 100; worst CS2 at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Dota2last resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT39042.1%164 W · 226 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 390 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 4 Winnerbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.35
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 3 Winnerbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT+100%+$20.83
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Playoffsbacked Team Yandex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$43
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winnerbacked Nigma Galaxy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.07
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winnerbacked Nigma Galaxy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+147%+$17.61
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Playoffsbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$23
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Playoffsbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.78
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$17.54
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$173Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$172.87
Dota 2: Iron Wing vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Playoffsbacked BoomBoys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$80.53
Dota 2: Iron Wing vs BoomBoys - Game 2 Winnerbacked BoomBoys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$14.86
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Playoffsbacked Nigma Galaxy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$96.67
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winnerbacked Nigma Galaxy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$51.08
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winnerbacked LGD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.18
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Yandex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Elimination Roundbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$31.62
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Resilience · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+277.4%+$29.13
Dota 2: Aurora vs BoomBoys - Game 2 Winnerbacked BoomBoys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$11.83
Dota 2: Aurora vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Elimination Roundbacked BoomBoys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$27.62
Dota 2: BoomBoys vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Group Stagebacked BoomBoys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.29
Dota 2: BoomBoys vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winnerbacked BoomBoys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Group Stagebacked Team Resilience · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winnerbacked TEAM VISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT+63.2%+$8.21
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winnerbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.2
Showing 25 of 390 picks, newest first.
CS2last resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT11133.3%37 W · 74 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-25.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
CS2 — the 111 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Spirit - Map 1 Winnerbacked Legacy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Counter-Strike: BIG vs G2 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group Abacked BIG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Astralis - Map 2 Winnerbacked paiN · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.63
Counter-Strike: PCIFIC vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament Playoffsbacked PCIFIC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+150%+$25.23
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite - Map 2 Winnerbacked Infinite · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$42
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Abacked Acend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$48
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks - Map 2 Winnerbacked Sharks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$93.06
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Bbacked ECHO · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+100%+$47
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS - Map 2 Winnerbacked FOKUS · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,189Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,188.65
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG - Map 2 Winnerbacked OG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.37
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winnerbacked 9INE · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+207.7%+$26.73
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$3,223Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$1,975.39
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffsbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$1,350Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+150%+$2,025.3
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winnerbacked Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$910Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$468.8
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winnerbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$435Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$490.53
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winnerbacked Aurora Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$122.64
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winnerbacked Aurora Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffsbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+112.9%+$112.87
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winnerbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+108.5%+$108.47
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffsbacked Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$128Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+125.5%+$160.63
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winnerbacked G2 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$78.21
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffsbacked 9z · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winnerbacked 9z · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winnerbacked 9z · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$68.11
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winnerbacked BetBoom Team · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$93
Showing 25 of 111 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT4843.8%21 W · 27 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 48 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+76.3%+$7.68
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$55.67
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$13.33
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$63
Cavaliers vs. Knicksbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$153
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+203%+$152.27
Cavaliers vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$774Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$774
Spread: Thunder (-15.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.9
Spread: Knicks (-7.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$23
Lakers vs. Thunderbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
76ers vs. Knicksbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.41
Raptors vs. Cavaliersbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$118.49
Magic vs. Pistonsbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$2,934Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,934.46
76ers vs. Celticsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$2,333.33
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$395Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$617.82
Pistons vs. Magicbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$312Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+76.3%+$238
Celtics vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$106.25
Rockets vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$137.92
Magic vs. Pistonsbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.44
Hawks vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$21.16
Pistons vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$27.76
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$156.46
Spread: Spurs (-6.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+80.1%+$33.03
Showing 25 of 48 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
France vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score in First Halfbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$46.39
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.75
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$615Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$591.09
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+25.3%+$126.57
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$199Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$285.78
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$376Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$375.74
All 9 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$158
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.