TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-15.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Lakers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,840,690
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,858,014

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,840,690 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 569 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6211…b89ebacked Thunder50c501,371$250,686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250,685.568148.1%39 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Lakers50c500,000$250,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250,00072648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4bff…fc26backed Lakers51c499,999$255,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254,999.743240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc807…c12bbacked Thunder49c420,000$205,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214,20020545.9%94 W · 111 L-12.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Lakers50c300,000$150,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150,00016841.1%69 W · 99 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Thunder50c238,039$118,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119,040.9587451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Lakers51c80,000$40,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,799.9743148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16bb…8492backed Thunder49c60,000$29,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,6002045%9 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Lakers49c37,803$18,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,523.5666248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c0a…a9bebacked Thunder51c25,400$12,954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,4462437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick44cpaid+4.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder49c23,630$11,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,103.186,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x966c…9b1abacked Thunder49c20,648$10,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,591.912951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf689…9d83backed Thunder49c20,408$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,408.161747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Thunder51c20,000$10,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,799.9714538.6%56 W · 89 L-12.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-22.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x0979…8d9bbacked Thunder51c19,644$10,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,625.7620352.7%107 W · 96 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Thunder50c19,060$9,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,530.111,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ba1…1ce4backed Lakers52c17,257$8,954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,953.716045%27 W · 33 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Thunder49c17,000$8,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,67016547.3%78 W · 87 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+56.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Thunder50c16,528$8,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,264.1858953.7%316 W · 273 L+15.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Lakers47c16,369$7,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,664.682,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Thunder50c15,000$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,50032351.1%165 W · 158 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Thunder49c15,000$7,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,65034456.7%195 W · 149 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c55…97d4backed Thunder47c14,053$6,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,387.617452.7%39 W · 35 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Thunder61c12,564$7,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,899.051,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Thunder50c10,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,00090650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Thunder50c10,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,00063746.6%297 W · 340 L-16.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Lakers49c9,407$4,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,653.5355251.3%283 W · 269 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09f1…8332backed Thunder60c8,392$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,392.164269%29 W · 13 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+18.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x021c…232fbacked Lakers52c8,300$4,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,31612056.7%68 W · 52 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b1e…82c9backed Lakers50c8,156$4,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0786243.5%27 W · 35 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Thunder45c8,095$3,637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,458.171,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Lakers49c8,005$3,922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,922.4139842.5%169 W · 229 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bae…885abacked Thunder44c8,000$3,559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,441.262842.9%12 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Thunder46c7,595$3,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,100.3561638.5%237 W · 379 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Thunder48c7,000$3,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,64024252.5%127 W · 115 L+18.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Thunder48c6,944$3,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,610.8764948.2%313 W · 336 L-3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Thunder48c6,578$3,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,420.354,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2061…8ec9backed Thunder34c6,394$2,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,200.156028.3%17 W · 43 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x96a3…d944backed Thunder48c6,263$2,977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,285.757950.6%40 W · 39 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+9.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Lakers50c6,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00079549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1509…ca95backed Lakers52c5,800$3,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,015.953951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Lakers62c5,773$3,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,594.768,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e56…7627backed Lakers52c5,769$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe21e…f216backed Thunder54c5,574$3,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,569.6212058.3%70 W · 50 L+11.9wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+21.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa1e4…4f8abacked Lakers64c5,440$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5006240.3%25 W · 37 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+21%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4667…cab0backed Lakers50c5,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50013355.6%74 W · 59 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Lakers51c5,000$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,55037539.5%148 W · 227 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked Thunder49c5,000$2,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,57544252.3%231 W · 211 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Lakers50c5,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50038143%164 W · 217 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Thunder50c4,608$2,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,303.761,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Thunder63c4,414$2,762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,652.5834255.6%190 W · 152 L+28.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+36%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5fea…78b1backed Thunder67c4,094$2,734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,360.5526337.3%98 W · 165 L-1.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8516…93a0backed Thunder49c4,082$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,081.638035%28 W · 52 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58aa…a481backed Lakers50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0003847.4%18 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1dfb…0b3dbacked Lakers50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0005940.7%24 W · 35 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd6ce…0772backed Thunder49c4,000$1,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,039.9911741.9%49 W · 68 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Thunder48c4,000$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,079.9757950.1%290 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7702…9791backed Thunder51c3,922$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,921.5724151.9%125 W · 116 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc0c…cfc9backed Thunder53c3,670$1,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,740.542646.2%12 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+19.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Thunder47c3,545$1,674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,870.469848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Thunder49c3,500$1,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,776.184,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fc3…5827backed Thunder49c3,423$1,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,745.96850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6550…8451backed Thunder46c3,166$1,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,696.946437.5%24 W · 40 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x791e…9bdabacked Lakers50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50017247.7%82 W · 90 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Thunder50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50021653.7%116 W · 100 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd23c…07cebacked Lakers52c2,937$1,527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,527.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78f8…b501backed Lakers78c2,700$2,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,105.992548%12 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Lakers57c2,670$1,534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,533.641,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Lakers52c2,651$1,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,376.71,04851.7%542 W · 506 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Thunder48c2,604$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,354.081,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Lakers57c2,500$1,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,42556453.9%304 W · 260 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ac…8de4backed Thunder50c2,500$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,25014854.1%80 W · 68 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00ff…f7adbacked Lakers51c2,500$1,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2753554.3%19 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Lakers50c2,457$1,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,228.671,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe22a…cb75backed Thunder22c2,420$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,887.673948.7%19 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Lakers53c2,277$1,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2071,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7cd…0888backed Lakers49c2,253$1,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,103.9717744.1%78 W · 99 L-7.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Lakers23c2,250$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.5568838.5%265 W · 423 L-26.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9cc…0b39backed Thunder49c2,200$1,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1223953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Thunder47c2,126$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,126.611,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c8c…c7b4backed Thunder49c2,041$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.8235650%178 W · 178 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd2f…37ddbacked Lakers52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04014039.3%55 W · 85 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Lakers52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04069149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8180…f4dabacked Thunder49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,019.9843352.2%226 W · 207 L+19.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Thunder50c1,885$942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$942.4759250.2%297 W · 295 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1b…7768backed Lakers51c1,832$934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933.7327645.3%125 W · 151 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb097…0e61backed Thunder49c1,815$889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$925.5912240.2%49 W · 73 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x72f8…8ea0backed Thunder51c1,742$888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$853.441258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Lakers50c1,740$862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861.5466352.6%349 W · 314 L+30.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Thunder46c1,661$767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$893.882,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Thunder64c1,646$1,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598.2327463.5%174 W · 100 L+34.8wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+19.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Thunder49c1,529$743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$786.5862051.1%317 W · 303 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fce…c02abacked Lakers43c1,505$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.35540%22 W · 33 L+5.3wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+54.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8590…07adbacked Lakers50c1,500$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7505945.8%27 W · 32 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c0…24eebacked Thunder49c1,442$706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735.338451.2%43 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd551…ef4cbacked Lakers50c1,402$701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.13425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+700.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf032…895dbacked Thunder56c1,400$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6202466.7%16 W · 8 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+20.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Lakers51c1,370$701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.631,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Thunder50c1,236$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622.617753.2%41 W · 36 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26dd…0249backed Thunder50c1,217$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.5941449.3%204 W · 210 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.