NBA · resolved market
Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f73f6307760a965ec595c354793f593ea39773d3bfb2e929f886c2fe9f9474d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lakersof Lakers, Thunder
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,366
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,366 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd85a…1d03backed Thunder | 78c | 1,921$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 75 | 70.7%53 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Lakers | 28c | 1,596$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,154.09 | 616 | 38.5%237 W · 379 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…df49backed Lakers | 18c | 1,082$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.72 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Lakers | 11c | 948.78$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.35 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e6…f893backed Lakers | 19c | 505.26$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.26 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951f…e430backed Thunder | 63c | 398.59$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 236 | 52.5%124 W · 112 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbad8…8f04backed Lakers | 16c | 345.18$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.63 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Thunder | 34c | 320$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.8 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ad…365abacked Lakers | 18c | 273.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.5 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Thunder | 69c | 262.99$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.66 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e59…1520backed Lakers | 48c | 206.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.97 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Lakers | 21c | 175.37$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.37 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Thunder | 74c | 174.13$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.64 | 326 | 54.6%178 W · 148 L | +22.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Lakers | 17c | 170.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.81 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87c0…244ebacked Lakers | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.67 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Lakers | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.67 | 265 | 45.3%120 W · 145 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Lakers | 64c | 140.29$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.29 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Lakers | 43c | 140$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.3 | 448 | 21.4%96 W · 352 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Lakers | 33c | 139.89$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.56 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Lakers | 22c | 137.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 219 | 50.2%110 W · 109 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…3ccbbacked Lakers | 33c | 125$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.97 | 130 | 36.2%47 W · 83 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Lakers | 33c | 125$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.97 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad43…1a69backed Lakers | 18c | 121$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.22 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Lakers | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.11 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb845…ca23backed Lakers | 14c | 110.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.33 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd334…fcc2backed Lakers | 19c | 102.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.22 | 247 | 25.9%64 W · 183 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Lakers | 49c | 101.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.54 | 107 | 57%61 W · 46 L | +15.3wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Lakers | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 292 | 43.8%128 W · 164 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Thunder | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked Lakers | 41c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 312 | 38.5%120 W · 192 L | +15.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed Lakers | 41c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x941e…c622backed Lakers | 23c | 65.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | +9.5wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Lakers | 28c | 62.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 308 | 42.9%132 W · 176 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e88…9b64backed Lakers | 41c | 57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb829…4f5ebacked Lakers | 41c | 57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddf…5c37backed Lakers | 41c | 57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Lakers | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 404 | 40.1%162 W · 242 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x158e…216bbacked Thunder | 74c | 40.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +4.3wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c8…e340backed Lakers | 41c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 330 | 30.9%102 W · 228 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…56dbbacked Thunder | 49c | 23.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 378 | 48.9%185 W · 193 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Thunder | 80c | 19.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 156 | 63.5%99 W · 57 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Thunder | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Lakers won
- Ajay Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Deandre Ayton: Assists O/U 0.5No won
- Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Lakers vs. ThunderThunder won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 107.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 209.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5Over won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Marcus Smart: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 28.5No won
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)Thunder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.