TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xd9e6…f893

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
65
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Tennis, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Tennis at 55 out of 100; worst NHL at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 25, 2026, EDT1637.5%6 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 219.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H Moneylinebacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT+426.3%+$409.26
76ers vs. Knicksbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.99
Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 1.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Lakers vs. Thunderbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.34
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 216.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$49
Heat vs. Cavaliersbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$63.81
Magic vs. Netsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$22.92
Timberwolves vs. Thunderbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$111
Pacers vs. Raptorsbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$117
Pistons vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+132.6%+$66.28
Lakers vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$239Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$238.65
Spurs vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST+117.4%+$117.39
Jazz vs. Rocketsbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$402Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$402.28
Spurs vs. Heatbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2025, EDT+194.1%+$97.06
Bulls vs. Cavaliersbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$470Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2025, EDT+143.9%+$676.8
All 16 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT1346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick34cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Tennis — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bogota: Hernan Casanova vs Ignacio Monzonbacked Ignacio Monzon · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$588Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$587.68
Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Novak Djokovicbacked Felix Auger-Aliassime · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$831Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$830.67
Bogota: Rodrigo Pacheco vs Felipe Meligeni Alvesbacked Felipe Meligeni Alves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$96.84
Trieste: Federico Bondioli vs Joel Schwaerzlerbacked Federico Bondioli · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$295Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+100.2%+$295.44
Cary: Rei Sakamoto vs Jules Lerouxbacked Jules Leroux · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$111.55
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Katerina Siniakova vs Anna Kalinskayabacked Anna Kalinskaya · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT+173.3%+$176.75
Miami Open: Linda Noskova vs Sorana Cirsteabacked Sorana Cirstea · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+122.9%+$30.72
Miami Open: Diana Shnaider vs Tereza Valentovabacked Diana Shnaider · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+72.6%+$36.29
Murcia: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baenabacked Roberto Carballes Baena · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$42.57
Ostrava Open, Qualification: Katherine Sebov vs Mona Barthelbacked Sebov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Transylvania Open, Qualification: Daria Snigur vs Aliona Bolsovabacked Bolsova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open: McCartney Kessler vs Anastasia Pavlyuchenkovabacked Pavlyuchenkova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20.55
Transylvania Open, Qualification: Lucrezia Stefanini vs Tamara Zidansekbacked Zidansek · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$24
All 13 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT1330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$483Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$482.93
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal O/U 3.5 Cornersbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+289%+$271.04
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$303.91
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 11.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$91.81
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 12.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$209Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$208.87
Panama vs. England: Team to Take First Cornerbacked Panama · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 3.5 Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.54
Panama to win the second half?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$69
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$92
Cody Gakpo: 2+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$385Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$384.9
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Cornersbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$159.89
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$127
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$90.2
All 13 picks, newest first.
MLBlast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Oct 13, 2025, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
NHL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Devils vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Blue Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,352Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,352
Jets vs. Islandersbacked Islanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,329Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,328.75
Avalanche vs. Sabresbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$153
Penguins vs. Rangersbacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
All 4 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Oct 11, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rutgers vs. Washingtonbacked Rutgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
South Florida vs. North Texasbacked North Texas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$91
All 2 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Dec 21, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: LGD Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3)backed LGD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$24.43
LoL: Los Heretics vs ROSSMANN Centaurs (BO5)backed ROSSMANN Centaurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$500
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Oct 14, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bears vs. Commandersbacked Commanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$279.87
49ers vs. Buccaneersbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$224.74
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Nov 25, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2025-11-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+257.1%+$164.57
All 1 picks, newest first.
WNBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 26, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+99.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
WNBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Stormbacked Seattle Storm · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+99.2%+$97.26
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TYLOO (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group Abacked TYLOO · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$31.04
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Nov 25, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UNCG Spartans vs. Delaware Fightin' Blue Hensbacked UNCG Spartans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved May 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 7.5 Total Cornersbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Mar 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Prelims)backed Bruno Silva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.47
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 11, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 12.5 Total Cornersbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.61
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.