MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa585409edfa2633de93083c6315d5c855988112f24e3f6dbac3bc91834a9776a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $122,503
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $124,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,503 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 44c | 104,963$45,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58,996.37 | 444 | 46.8%208 W · 236 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 56c | 40,000$22,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,400 | 884 | 46.3%409 W · 475 L | +26.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 55c | 22,581$12,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,518.55 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 56c | 20,000$11,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,275 | 1,153 | 49.2%567 W · 586 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 47c | 5,812$2,703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,702.82 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 56c | 5,000$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Over | 57c | 4,375$2,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,493.81 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 56c | 4,000$2,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,260 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 56c | 2,448$1,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,372.93 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 45c | 1,747$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$957.91 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed Under | 58c | 1,525$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.99 | 248 | 52.4%130 W · 118 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 56c | 1,447$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.06 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 56c | 1,432$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.98 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x773c…cf18backed Under | 41c | 680.49$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.49 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 48c | 596$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.08 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…a316backed Over | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 226 | 38.5%87 W · 139 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 56c | 454.97$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.78 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e6…f893backed Under | 56c | 327.52$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 57c | 216$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.12 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e0…e2cbbacked Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 58c | 187.44$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.13 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 54c | 154.03$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.13 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 44c | 137$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.54 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 62c | 117.9$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.1 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 42c | 116.83$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.1 | 999 | 47.5%475 W · 524 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 963 | 49%472 W · 491 L | -39.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Over | 58c | 97$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.26 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 57c | 90$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79b5…df9bbacked Under | 50c | 74.23$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 92 | 46.7%43 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 45c | 56.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 40c | 53.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Under | 41c | 48.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Over | 57c | 46.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 33c | 46.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 58c | 43.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe997…f92ebacked Over | 57c | 42.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 392 | 53.6%210 W · 182 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 41c | 30.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Over | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43a8…d77fbacked Over | 60c | 29.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 142 | 59.2%84 W · 58 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 64c | 27.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 57c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…49c1backed Over | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf824…651fbacked Under | 47c | 23.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 110 | 52.7%58 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…8f47backed Under | 44c | 23.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Over | 50c | 20.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a9…6f76backed Over | 54c | 20.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 61c | 19.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 62c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…6471backed Over | 60c | 18.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc93d…23d5backed Under | 61c | 17.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 7.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado RockiesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.