MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd53ef17a5b7f8274900d4f1f31d3b1580cfdd00c30998133aefd81facf6f0e60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,760
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,760 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 42c | 3,076$1,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,284.49 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 33c | 2,619$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.11 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 58c | 2,587$1,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,094.13 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 2,469$1,341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,128.2 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e6…d471backed Under | 69c | 2,113$1,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.15 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 33c | 1,648$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.94 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c10…b6a4backed Under | 73c | 685.55$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.55 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 68c | 661.76$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…ed99backed Under | 51c | 550$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 38c | 329.58$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.09 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…d5ddbacked Under | 52c | 300.04$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +110.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 52c | 273.19$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.04 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 58c | 217.88$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.48 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c47…e1cbbacked Over | 76c | 200$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 32c | 199.8$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.8 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 73c | 173$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.82 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda48…5926backed Under | 66c | 158.51$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.46 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…a316backed Under | 24c | 157.17$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.45 | 226 | 38.5%87 W · 139 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 11c | 130$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xce8b…738abacked Over | 73c | 80$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 71c | 71.6$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.05 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88aa…2f5ebacked Over | 32c | 70.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 52c | 63.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Under | 27c | 53.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.23 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 31c | 44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ac…0e0bbacked Over | 47c | 37.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43a8…d77fbacked Over | 63c | 35.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 142 | 59.2%84 W · 58 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…8b33backed Over | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 40c | 32.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 66c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x118a…457ebacked Over | 77c | 26.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…49c1backed Over | 66c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4cbabacked Over | 76c | 19.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 74c | 16.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Over | 76c | 13.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 7.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado RockiesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.