NFL · resolved market
Bears vs. Commanders
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4bba8acb4a85c9f4ccd0eec6393e746c0176d271c2d0e52792968a05dd64b0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bearsof Bears, Commanders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,291,519
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,416,044
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,291,519 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 608 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Bears | 38c | 364,523$136,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227,526.45 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Commanders | 70c | 125,698$87,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87,988.72 | 195 | 53.8%105 W · 90 L | +16.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Bears | 31c | 108,436$33,542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74,894.11 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Bears | 31c | 106,000$32,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73,140 | 103 | 33%34 W · 69 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3b…c46bbacked Commanders | 70c | 102,995$71,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71,719.56 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Commanders | 66c | 96,804$64,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64,079.21 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3672…edbdbacked Commanders | 65c | 85,000$55,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55,449.98 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -5.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Bears | 43c | 64,727$28,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,588.19 | 300 | 43.7%131 W · 169 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c2…d3a7backed Commanders | 69c | 56,590$39,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,047.01 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Commanders | 48c | 50,000$24,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,195.03 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…fa7bbacked Commanders | 48c | 46,724$22,588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,587.96 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Commanders | 69c | 46,488$32,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,019.41 | 168 | 36.9%62 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Bears | 41c | 41,201$17,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,123.84 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe653…c4a7backed Bears | 47c | 40,100$18,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,200 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…0ccbbacked Bears | 31c | 40,054$12,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,590.64 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…936fbacked Bears | 41c | 39,007$15,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,018.25 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Commanders | 27c | 37,131$10,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,081.96 | 195 | 51.3%100 W · 95 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Bears | 35c | 34,253$11,876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,376.69 | 318 | 48.1%153 W · 165 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcc…441bbacked Commanders | 70c | 33,750$23,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,624.87 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x759b…2ab3backed Bears | 30c | 33,333$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,333.33 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +4.4wins | +0.20per pick | 39cpaid | +246.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Bears | 29c | 32,792$9,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,314.86 | 100 | 26%26 W · 74 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb45d…a406backed Commanders | 62c | 30,509$18,808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,807.54 | 121 | 38.8%47 W · 74 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b41…e0d3backed Commanders | 66c | 30,000$19,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,670 | 198 | 64.6%128 W · 70 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Commanders | 40c | 28,985$11,692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,692.5 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Commanders | 69c | 22,821$15,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,709.86 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e1…50aabacked Commanders | 56c | 20,143$11,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,276.02 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Bears | 74c | 19,809$14,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,214.26 | 192 | 35.4%68 W · 124 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bears | 30c | 18,967$5,745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,221.96 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Commanders | 69c | 17,739$12,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,240.22 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Commanders | 65c | 17,468$11,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,281 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Commanders | 63c | 17,069$10,711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,711.39 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Commanders | 70c | 16,981$11,823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,822.64 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Commanders | 69c | 16,082$11,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,169.06 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Bears | 31c | 16,000$4,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,039.86 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Commanders | 69c | 15,000$10,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,350 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Bears | 30c | 15,000$4,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,450 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Commanders | 56c | 15,000$8,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,399.99 | 251 | 37.5%94 W · 157 L | -18.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Commanders | 69c | 15,000$10,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,349.96 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Bears | 31c | 14,800$4,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,212 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d6…aa44backed Bears | 30c | 13,798$4,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,658.6 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca3f…8078backed Bears | 31c | 13,611$4,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,445.94 | 149 | 51%76 W · 73 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Commanders | 69c | 12,000$8,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,280 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Bears | 55c | 11,430$6,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,090.48 | 207 | 55.1%114 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2639…9a67backed Commanders | 45c | 11,124$4,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,983.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a3…c3a6backed Commanders | 69c | 11,000$7,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,610 | 39 | 79.5%31 W · 8 L | +7.2wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfa21…1438backed Commanders | 79c | 10,890$8,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,650 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5646…3819backed Bears | 32c | 10,000$3,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,800 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88a2…d974backed Bears | 30c | 10,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,000 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Commanders | 70c | 10,000$7,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,000 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x220c…43c8backed Bears | 30c | 10,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,000 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…4173backed Bears | 31c | 10,000$3,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,900 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…381bbacked Commanders | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Bears | 20c | 10,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,000 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x576d…767dbacked Commanders | 70c | 10,000$7,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,000 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed Commanders | 70c | 10,000$7,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,000 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29bf…25b0backed Commanders | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,100 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfecb…19babacked Commanders | 63c | 8,832$5,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,534.1 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Commanders | 70c | 8,578$6,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,004.83 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Bears | 39c | 8,476$3,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,175.69 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Commanders | 67c | 8,026$5,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,346.95 | 206 | 34.5%71 W · 135 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed Bears | 52c | 7,954$4,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,810.77 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Bears | 31c | 7,886$2,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,441.34 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +134.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Bears | 30c | 7,500$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,250 | 144 | 50%72 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b6…5a9ebacked Commanders | 70c | 6,786$4,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,750 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…a5afbacked Bears | 31c | 6,785$2,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,681.54 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +121.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b1…a75ebacked Bears | 32c | 6,613$2,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,500.31 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Commanders | 46c | 6,516$2,977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,977.42 | 276 | 44.2%122 W · 154 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Bears | 30c | 6,500$1,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,550 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…0772backed Commanders | 68c | 6,294$4,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,279.91 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1334…3c35backed Commanders | 67c | 5,956$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Commanders | 74c | 5,797$4,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,289.78 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x132a…abe8backed Bears | 40c | 5,786$2,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,471.63 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…edf1backed Commanders | 48c | 5,640$2,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,714.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Commanders | 68c | 5,636$3,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,855.22 | 318 | 54.7%174 W · 144 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c36…9719backed Commanders | 31c | 5,556$1,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,735.44 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed Commanders | 68c | 5,500$3,753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,752.99 | 147 | 57.1%84 W · 63 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae0f…f647backed Bears | 45c | 5,435$2,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,007.93 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…f306backed Commanders | 70c | 5,000$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7784…5b6dbacked Bears | 26c | 5,000$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,700 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Commanders | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 2cpaid | +931.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf515…0805backed Commanders | 70c | 5,000$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…c3bebacked Commanders | 70c | 5,000$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164f…deb3backed Bears | 30c | 5,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,499.89 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Commanders | 41c | 4,880$2,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000.52 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…f4dabacked Commanders | 58c | 4,753$2,749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,748.56 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Bears | 31c | 4,600$1,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,177.92 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e0…4983backed Bears | 36c | 4,256$1,547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,709.53 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Commanders | 65c | 4,000$2,593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,593.33 | 362 | 46.7%169 W · 193 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471b…b18fbacked Bears | 40c | 4,000$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,419.99 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Commanders | 63c | 3,713$2,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,327.15 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5916…8d4fbacked Commanders | 61c | 3,707$2,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,246.86 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Bears | 30c | 3,705$1,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,593.5 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fec…c965backed Commanders | 50c | 3,656$1,838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,838.36 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Bears | 48c | 3,583$1,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,877.06 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1e…88d5backed Commanders | 60c | 3,561$2,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,152.43 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Bears | 30c | 3,500$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,450 | 184 | 35.9%66 W · 118 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57fb…fb6ebacked Bears | 32c | 3,500$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,380 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f0…1ebebacked Commanders | 70c | 3,476$2,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,433.13 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14cf…0856backed Bears | 32c | 3,430$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,329.52 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Commanders | 1c | 3,333$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | +13.9wins | +0.13per pick | 10cpaid | +428.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bears vs. Commandersthis page
- Bears vs. Commanders: O/U 49.5Under won
- Bears vs. Commanders: O/U 50.5Under won
- Spread: Commanders (-4.5)Bears won
- Spread: Commanders (-5.5)Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.