NFL · resolved market
Spread: Commanders (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a4744b6031551fc1c5b162335f3c5c8256277d84b82ac6a40e5f6981d708345
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bearsof Commanders, Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $946,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $953,978
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $946,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe73e…74febacked Commanders | 53c | 433,491$229,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229,269 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3b…c46bbacked Commanders | 51c | 323,469$164,969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164,969.31 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Bears | 47c | 250,000$117,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132,500 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Bears | 49c | 210,740$103,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107,477.29 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Bears | 49c | 118,702$58,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60,420.17 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Bears | 48c | 60,380$28,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,694.85 | 207 | 55.1%114 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…141dbacked Bears | 49c | 39,200$19,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,992 | 100 | 61%61 W · 39 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3745…cf3bbacked Commanders | 51c | 28,000$14,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,280 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bears | 48c | 26,203$12,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,622.93 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bears | 47c | 20,375$9,584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,791 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…efebbacked Commanders | 50c | 19,794$9,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,896.83 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Bears | 48c | 18,300$8,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,516.16 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…fa7bbacked Bears | 50c | 15,983$7,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,993.04 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9af…6371backed Commanders | 50c | 15,832$7,916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,915.81 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -8.5wins | -0.29per pick | 50cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc350…3669backed Bears | 47c | 13,995$6,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,417.4 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +4.2wins | +0.27per pick | 55cpaid | +147.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Bears | 47c | 12,640$5,941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,699.2 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Commanders | 50c | 12,405$6,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,202.57 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Commanders | 49c | 11,998$5,919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,919.22 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Bears | 48c | 10,477$5,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,475.5 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Bears | 48c | 10,124$4,894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,229.99 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Bears | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Bears | 47c | 9,968$4,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,279.8 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Bears | 50c | 8,253$4,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,138.43 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Bears | 50c | 8,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,000 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a38…8fb5backed Bears | 51c | 6,098$3,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,009.57 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf209…97e1backed Bears | 51c | 4,306$2,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,109.88 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed Bears | 50c | 4,020$2,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,010 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Bears | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 184 | 35.9%66 W · 118 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Bears | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b11…8cdbbacked Commanders | 51c | 3,786$1,931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,931.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Commanders | 51c | 3,732$1,893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,892.79 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Bears | 48c | 3,150$1,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,638 | 106 | 50.9%54 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Bears | 47c | 2,279$1,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,199.71 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Bears | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Commanders | 50c | 1,613$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.49 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0944…6771backed Bears | 48c | 1,312$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.24 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b3…49f8backed Bears | 50c | 1,210$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.22 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bears | 47c | 1,073$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.81 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Bears | 49c | 950$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.5 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked Bears | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Commanders | 51c | 588.22$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bears | 47c | 575$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.75 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…6825backed Bears | 50c | 568$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | -12.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2567…2371backed Bears | 49c | 552$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.24 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae5…b896backed Bears | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fb…dcb0backed Commanders | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…c2eabacked Bears | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.6wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…35e1backed Bears | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 164 | 51.2%84 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Commanders | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…68b9backed Bears | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Commanders | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x279b…04f5backed Commanders | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Bears | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe478…28eabacked Bears | 50c | 135.24$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.62 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…ce17backed Bears | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff0…2e7fbacked Bears | 52c | 110.21$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.9 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Commanders | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Bears | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 180 | 44.4%80 W · 100 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Bears | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 180 | 51.7%93 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e52…6577backed Bears | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65d3…d153backed Bears | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa920…4c9bbacked Bears | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf863…5bc1backed Bears | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…f1b3backed Bears | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Commanders | 51c | 80.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked Bears | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Bears | 50c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Bears | 47c | 63.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 114 | 50%57 W · 57 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…d9f6backed Bears | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…2dd1backed Bears | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68f6…7742backed Commanders | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x089d…c7c9backed Bears | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Bears | 50c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Bears | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…357fbacked Bears | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65d2…e676backed Bears | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Bears | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Bears | 50c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d01…bf99backed Commanders | 51c | 30.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c3…08a9backed Commanders | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…4f11backed Bears | 50c | 20.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Bears | 51c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x892e…0f65backed Bears | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Commanders (-5.5)this page
- Bears vs. CommandersBears won
- Bears vs. Commanders: O/U 49.5Under won
- Bears vs. Commanders: O/U 50.5Under won
- Spread: Commanders (-4.5)Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.