NFL · resolved market
Bears vs. Commanders: O/U 50.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x519555058103f43a41912cf2e8998f4814057a4b0e37b92b004a8df6555fe3d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,215
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,712
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,215 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 56c | 43,392$24,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,307.86 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 46c | 20,383$9,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,462.07 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 44c | 12,000$5,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,280 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Over | 44c | 6,791$2,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,988.07 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 6,404$2,882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,881.84 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 44c | 3,515$1,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,548.04 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68df…4815backed Under | 55c | 3,318$1,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,493.1 | 181 | 56.9%103 W · 78 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 54c | 2,460$1,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,135.2 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 45c | 2,179$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.81 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Over | 45c | 1,727$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.8 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Under | 52c | 1,665$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.25 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 3c | 1,107$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 46c | 940$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.6 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 45c | 628.67$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.9 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Over | 45c | 400$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +11.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e52…6577backed Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under | 55c | 193.49$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.07 | 266 | 48.9%130 W · 136 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 55c | 150$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Over | 44c | 148.15$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.19 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 56c | 91.91$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.44 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc757…f18cbacked Under | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Under | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 26c | 59.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 276 | 44.2%122 W · 154 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf3…2b57backed Under | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85a5…6721backed Over | 57c | 40.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 48c | 37.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 46c | 22.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…958abacked Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bears vs. Commanders: O/U 50.5this page
- Bears vs. CommandersBears won
- Bears vs. Commanders: O/U 49.5Under won
- Spread: Commanders (-4.5)Bears won
- Spread: Commanders (-5.5)Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.