NFL · resolved market
Bears vs. Commanders: O/U 49.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01f670fcc60c1dc8b7e99f304ceb156b5ec7cd3c5c4474b12a28df62ec12e03e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,423
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,603
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,423 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Under | 50c | 19,900$9,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,950.06 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 49c | 10,803$5,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,330.84 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 51c | 8,690$4,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,257.71 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Over | 50c | 8,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 176 | 48.9%86 W · 90 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 6,435$3,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,207.11 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Over | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,350 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under | 53c | 4,528$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,128.3 | 240 | 56.7%136 W · 104 L | +19.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Over | 49c | 4,500$2,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,205 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Under | 51c | 2,812$1,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,377.38 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 48c | 2,745$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320.05 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Under | 52c | 2,657$1,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,275.36 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 48c | 2,656$1,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,274.81 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Over | 53c | 2,576$1,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,358.29 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 52c | 2,377$1,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140.96 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Over | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 53c | 1,720$904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.41 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…6af9backed Over | 53c | 1,521$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 47c | 1,506$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 44c | 1,250$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 111 | 39.6%44 W · 67 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 51c | 996.88$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.02 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Over | 48c | 925$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Over | 49c | 868$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.32 | 143 | 66.4%95 W · 48 L | +13.0wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x71b3…a5d6backed Over | 49c | 825$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.25 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 52c | 770$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.6 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 51c | 489.72$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.96 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 60c | 420$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 130 | 65.4%85 W · 45 L | +17.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9925…e33ebacked Under | 53c | 420$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.4 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 143 | 44.1%63 W · 80 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0431…3934backed Under | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under | 51c | 350$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.5 | 266 | 48.9%130 W · 136 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe611…0ae4backed Under | 50c | 298.04$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.04 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a33…2534backed Under | 51c | 277.94$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.19 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -7.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1498…a10bbacked Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…e411backed Under | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Over | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf863…5bc1backed Under | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff0…2e7fbacked Under | 52c | 128.85$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.85 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f55…535dbacked Under | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.45 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2c…4ae8backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65d3…d153backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked Over | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 50c | 77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Over | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 177 | 41.8%74 W · 103 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f19…b0cabacked Over | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Over | 49c | 55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…958abacked Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56e4…92bbbacked Over | 49c | 42.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2082…c686backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 139 | 59.7%83 W · 56 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ff…f464backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf3…379bbacked Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfca9…cb3dbacked Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Under | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 49c | 21.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f13…3a2dbacked Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bears vs. Commanders: O/U 49.5this page
- Bears vs. CommandersBears won
- Bears vs. Commanders: O/U 50.5Under won
- Spread: Commanders (-4.5)Bears won
- Spread: Commanders (-5.5)Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.