NFL · resolved market
Spread: Commanders (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x256076bcdac125a7fdb74e70cddad876e8eb4056f258bb6bbdfc58c68596923b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bearsof Commanders, Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $294,623
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $296,829
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $294,623 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Commanders | 54c | 237,353$128,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128,164.98 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Bears | 46c | 200,145$92,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108,075.65 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Bears | 46c | 15,769$7,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,457.33 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Bears | 46c | 12,933$5,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,981.19 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…01aabacked Commanders | 52c | 11,076$5,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,759.71 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Bears | 47c | 8,511$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,510.64 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bears | 50c | 7,712$3,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,856 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…c9b4backed Commanders | 53c | 5,670$3,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,005.1 | 181 | 40.9%74 W · 107 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Bears | 46c | 5,000$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,700 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Bears | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Commanders | 53c | 3,998$2,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,119.01 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…dd3cbacked Bears | 48c | 3,000$1,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,549.99 | 141 | 48.2%68 W · 73 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a38…8fb5backed Bears | 47c | 2,736$1,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,450.17 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Commanders | 53c | 2,513$1,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,332.93 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bd17backed Bears | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bears | 48c | 1,536$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.82 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…6137backed Bears | 47c | 1,500$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +194.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b3…49f8backed Bears | 47c | 1,262$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.84 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Commanders | 51c | 1,175$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.25 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Commanders | 55c | 1,100$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605 | 293 | 56%164 W · 129 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Bears | 47c | 1,066$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.04 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b95…6141backed Bears | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked Commanders | 54c | 927$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bc…73b7backed Commanders | 53c | 868$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.04 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ef…f8c1backed Commanders | 53c | 785.19$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9925…e33ebacked Commanders | 54c | 700$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6870…ebc4backed Commanders | 53c | 450$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b3…a5d6backed Commanders | 52c | 449.99$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17bd…7afcbacked Commanders | 53c | 373.86$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…35e1backed Bears | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.12 | 164 | 51.2%84 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0a…291cbacked Commanders | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Bears | 48c | 258.83$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.92 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Bears | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…657fbacked Bears | 48c | 208$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.16 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Commanders | 51c | 203.92$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa492…a079backed Commanders | 52c | 200.78$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0891…508abacked Bears | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d79…9c76backed Commanders | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Commanders | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…6bd3backed Commanders | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9123…9dd3backed Commanders | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75b5…a1f2backed Commanders | 55c | 153.84$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.61 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2c…4ae8backed Bears | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…fa4ebacked Bears | 50c | 132$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Commanders | 25c | 130$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf35…b327backed Commanders | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Commanders | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe611…0ae4backed Bears | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Bears | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1918…9568backed Commanders | 53c | 89.43$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa41…bb20backed Commanders | 51c | 88.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb36…1c00backed Bears | 47c | 70$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Commanders | 54c | 67.74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Bears | 46c | 67.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 114 | 50%57 W · 57 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7259…a6c4backed Bears | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x089d…c7c9backed Bears | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Bears | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Bears | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d65…3a17backed Bears | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…efd5backed Bears | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked Commanders | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 170 | 60.6%103 W · 67 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…ec0dbacked Bears | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 183 | 50.3%92 W · 91 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…b767backed Commanders | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecf5…6a01backed Commanders | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Commanders | 53c | 34.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fc…5d5bbacked Bears | 49c | 32.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf3…2b57backed Bears | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x378f…a862backed Bears | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1fa0backed Commanders | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9abd…c0edbacked Bears | 52c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…2a91backed Commanders | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…0faabacked Bears | 49c | 22.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…958abacked Commanders | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…c613backed Commanders | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Commanders (-4.5)this page
- Bears vs. CommandersBears won
- Bears vs. Commanders: O/U 49.5Under won
- Bears vs. Commanders: O/U 50.5Under won
- Spread: Commanders (-5.5)Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.