TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Pistons vs. Celtics

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Celticsof Pistons, Celtics
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,477,066
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,587,465

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,477,066 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,682 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2f09…4632backed Pistons57c252,948$142,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142,956.3920253.5%108 W · 94 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed72…b8b0backed Celtics45c173,921$78,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95,895.962245.5%10 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Pistons60c166,893$99,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99,520.192,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0140…9028backed Celtics43c135,000$57,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77,149.744544.4%20 W · 25 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Pistons36c115,833$42,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,013.231,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Pistons59c114,510$68,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68,037.782,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Celtics42c68,294$28,967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,326.762,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdaa…8420backed Celtics47c66,408$31,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,123.71435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Celtics43c56,154$24,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,007.8247848.1%230 W · 248 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Celtics47c54,758$25,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,147.955,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd538…cc31backed Pistons58c54,620$31,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,679.621450%107 W · 107 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-12.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d56…7486backed Celtics43c54,620$23,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,133.417861.2%109 W · 69 L+11.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x19fd…5838backed Pistons57c52,279$30,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,014.085925.4%15 W · 44 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-32.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Celtics40c44,762$17,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,034.7796447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Celtics45c40,064$18,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,034.9837557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Celtics42c40,048$16,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,227.6414052.1%73 W · 67 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Celtics42c40,000$16,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,399.7451350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Pistons55c38,566$21,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,211.395433.3%18 W · 36 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-35.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Celtics43c38,339$16,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,795.149,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Celtics40c36,678$14,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,861.7374748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Pistons38c33,314$12,629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,629.14,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06c0…e618backed Celtics41c32,584$13,307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,277.0913455.2%74 W · 60 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Celtics44c30,229$13,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,81315443.5%67 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Celtics42c30,000$12,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,399.9838248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Celtics45c29,904$13,457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,447.4316547.3%78 W · 87 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+56.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c82…1f13backed Celtics42c29,697$12,526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,170.947957%45 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Celtics43c29,089$12,642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,447.134,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad34…4386backed Celtics47c28,228$13,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,994.081258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88a1…ad45backed Pistons57c28,000$15,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,9605350.9%27 W · 26 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Celtics42c26,226$11,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,124.023,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Pistons57c25,909$14,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,739.9285742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Celtics46c25,761$11,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,860.968,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94d7…bef5backed Pistons33c25,636$8,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,50025925.9%67 W · 192 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Celtics44c23,140$10,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,856.862,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c74…bd4ebacked Pistons55c22,000$12,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,099.997640.8%31 W · 45 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3fd4…6ebcbacked Pistons56c21,665$12,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,138.053850%19 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5922…3388backed Pistons57c21,577$12,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,367.354456.8%25 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Celtics63c20,770$13,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,746.481529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Pistons60c20,021$12,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,101.787869.2%54 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Celtics42c18,722$7,937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,784.5872450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c38…e372backed Pistons60c18,000$10,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,800366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x059e…4a2ebacked Celtics41c17,941$7,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,585.461637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-23.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Celtics48c17,912$8,673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,238.226038.1%99 W · 161 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Pistons46c16,505$7,593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,593.171,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x194f…3d95backed Pistons57c16,000$9,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,059.7813345.9%61 W · 72 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8aec…1158backed Pistons69c13,301$9,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,239.78333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick60cpaid-40.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ae0…753ebacked Celtics43c13,100$5,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,467580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+46.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x685e…6f30backed Pistons58c13,000$7,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,54010757.9%62 W · 45 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd6ce…0772backed Pistons59c12,799$7,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,551.4111741.9%49 W · 68 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ca8…1a39backed Pistons54c12,299$6,641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,641.28343.4%36 W · 47 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x937e…1de6backed Celtics43c12,200$5,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,954366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+56.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c51…ee64backed Pistons55c11,656$6,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,410.610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd52…0001backed Pistons49c11,395$5,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,610.451662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a61…b560backed Pistons41c11,008$4,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,470.729640.6%39 W · 57 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5016…ccd6backed Pistons57c11,000$6,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,27050%0 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Celtics40c10,634$4,254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,380.571,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f16…0246backed Pistons59c10,503$6,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,20038649.5%191 W · 195 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Pistons58c10,476$6,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,126.1231044.8%139 W · 171 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36de…e7c7backed Pistons58c10,400$6,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,032366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Celtics44c10,390$4,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,793.2169852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f5b…d411backed Celtics70c10,000$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0005959.3%35 W · 24 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick66cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Pistons56c10,000$5,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,5508840.9%36 W · 52 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-27.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0d3…593ebacked Pistons58c9,800$5,725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,725616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.38per pick55cpaid-78.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Celtics50c9,666$4,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,830.481,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Celtics77c9,537$7,374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,162.21,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be6…2006backed Celtics63c9,512$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,511.662580%20 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Celtics39c9,319$3,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,684.562650%13 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd44c…c845backed Pistons58c9,200$5,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,33650%0 W · 5 L-2.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8ddd…39eebacked Pistons53c8,865$4,709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,709.2322542.2%95 W · 130 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5224…0de8backed Pistons59c8,859$5,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,191.525658.9%33 W · 23 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+20.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Pistons57c8,772$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00048448.8%236 W · 248 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Celtics50c8,658$4,306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,352.1785344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Pistons55c8,500$4,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,6751,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42cb…8412backed Celtics46c8,399$3,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,543.557259.7%43 W · 29 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x40ac…8cb3backed Celtics41c8,395$3,442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,953.12560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+24.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Pistons55c8,000$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,40014434%49 W · 95 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Pistons1c8,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8029810.4%31 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.08per pick3cpaid+230.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf6eb…dcf1backed Celtics41c8,000$3,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,719.934100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+71.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x28e8…6080backed Celtics44c7,632$3,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,294.993847.4%18 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd71a…9498backed Celtics41c7,524$3,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,439.1614549%71 W · 74 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Pistons56c7,500$4,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,229.9778445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa613…d494backed Pistons56c7,438$4,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,1502142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-27.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Pistons58c7,417$4,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,293.6448944.2%216 W · 273 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8178…775cbacked Pistons57c7,295$4,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,158.1530%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Pistons33c7,121$2,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,35359646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbaad…e230backed Celtics43c7,095$3,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,044.15450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5ad…be8cbacked Celtics42c7,027$2,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,075.892142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7bf4…8860backed Pistons56c7,000$3,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,909.993357.6%19 W · 14 L+4.7wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+46.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1252…dec2backed Pistons56c6,900$3,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,858.54052.5%21 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Celtics44c6,814$3,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,788.321,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Celtics45c6,800$3,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,7405556.4%31 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb67…92cbbacked Pistons59c6,784$4,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,002.28366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe931…0acabacked Celtics42c6,782$2,849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,933.7540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2ab…f2c3backed Pistons56c6,598$3,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,695333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-47.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb6b…943abacked Pistons60c6,517$3,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,91015461.7%95 W · 59 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x47bd…bc9dbacked Pistons55c6,510$3,576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,575.655347.2%25 W · 28 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Pistons53c6,335$3,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,363.9644337.9%168 W · 275 L-0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Celtics49c6,176$3,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,152.8134062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb44…e977backed Pistons56c6,072$3,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,400425%1 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.44per pick69cpaid-66.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Celtics63c6,068$3,841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,226.851,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.