NBA · resolved market
Pistons vs. Celtics: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9772f1ef84314b63e552b888450b80e51cf59b784acfa5a651549c2e704fd7c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,993
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,717
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,993 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 48c | 24,032$11,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,496.47 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5e…83f8backed Under | 52c | 20,000$10,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,400 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +10.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Under | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,200 | 193 | 51.3%99 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Under | 1c | 8,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 298 | 10.4%31 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.08per pick | 3cpaid | +230.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd547…f7a8backed Under | 53c | 6,626$3,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,544.69 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…c38cbacked Over | 50c | 5,500$2,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,730 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Over | 48c | 4,891$2,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,543.48 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 53c | 2,273$1,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,058.31 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 45c | 1,502$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.1 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 35c | 1,300$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.99 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 1,198$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.47 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 49c | 937.66$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.47 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e22…88a5backed Under | 51c | 800$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf341…b5f6backed Over | 47c | 551.69$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.58 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4862…1a17backed Over | 53c | 376.47$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.24 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 47c | 375$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…f4f4backed Under | 46c | 263.71$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.31 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 47c | 155.53$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.93 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…39fdbacked Under | 47c | 138.3$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 59c | 134$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.94 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b2…b602backed Over | 56c | 124$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.04 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Under | 26c | 121.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 113.21$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.21 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Over | 64c | 106.3$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 36c | 105.26$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 47c | 105$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeecc…6930backed Over | 43c | 92.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…51d4backed Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 36c | 83.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 48c | 80.81$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.02 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Over | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 52c | 75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Over | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 137 | 49.6%68 W · 69 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 46c | 66.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Over | 43c | 65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…0cbebacked Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd207…c366backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…2cf3backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 849 | 57.6%489 W · 360 L | -52.1wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87b4…23c0backed Over | 55c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 59c | 28.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pistons vs. Celtics: O/U 228.5this page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-1.5)Celtics won
- Pistons vs. CelticsCeltics won
- Pistons vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- Pistons vs. Celtics: O/U 227.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Celtics: O/U 229.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Celtics: O/U 230.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Celtics: O/U 231.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Celtics: O/U 232.5Under won
- Spread: Celtics (-1.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Pistons (-3.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.