NBA · resolved market
Pistons vs. Celtics: O/U 230.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9106269bb6d03c360ca713e5cff4f0071cc27d4bf9428d9c78b2f88d97e2f673
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,172
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,129
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,172 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x067f…e041backed Under | 48c | 10,000$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,799.99 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 51c | 9,664$4,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,928.54 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Over | 49c | 9,268$4,541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,726.7 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 4,609$2,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,141.23 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb5…cdb0backed Over | 52c | 3,407$1,772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,635.45 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 53c | 2,754$1,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,306.46 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 52c | 1,738$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.82 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…8352backed Over | 59c | 1,472$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.9 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 54c | 1,382$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.72 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 54c | 927$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.62 | 177 | 58.2%103 W · 74 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccec…1dfcbacked Over | 50c | 890$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 52c | 863.95$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.42 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 47c | 760.12$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.18 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Under | 43c | 568$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.04 | 184 | 38.6%71 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 33c | 526.26$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.56 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 1,048 | 41.1%431 W · 617 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 361$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.54 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 58c | 350$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 21c | 243.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf28…72aabacked Over | 6c | 207.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.3 | 133 | 18.8%25 W · 108 L | -9.4wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…017fbacked Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 235 | 50.2%118 W · 117 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068f…4594backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc213…80f7backed Over | 57c | 175.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.38 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ead…16d3backed Over | 54c | 138.89$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.89 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 56c | 125$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…c0d4backed Over | 57c | 123.58$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.14 | 134 | 56.7%76 W · 58 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 53c | 104$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.47 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Over | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 401 | 33.4%134 W · 267 L | +27.0wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…5210backed Over | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea68…ff92backed Under | 80c | 70$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655d…b758backed Over | 52c | 69.29$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.26 | 244 | 46.7%114 W · 130 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Under | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…8117backed Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 52c | 46.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4e…dc93backed Over | 52c | 44.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…fb4cbacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 102 | 57.8%59 W · 43 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d60…50dbbacked Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2be…963fbacked Under | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 46c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ef…a7a4backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pistons vs. Celtics: O/U 230.5this page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-1.5)Celtics won
- Pistons vs. CelticsCeltics won
- Pistons vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- Pistons vs. Celtics: O/U 227.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Celtics: O/U 228.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Celtics: O/U 229.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Celtics: O/U 231.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Celtics: O/U 232.5Under won
- Spread: Celtics (-1.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Pistons (-3.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.