TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Pistons vs. Celtics: O/U 232.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,509
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,653

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,509 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Over49c1,715$835 inLost-$834.849,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over50c1,584$792 inLost-$791.911,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Under46c1,239$570 inWon+$669.092,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6de…95e8backed Under50c1,000$500 inWon+$50023047%108 W · 122 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6b4…1014backed Over54c925.93$500 inLost-$5004729.8%14 W · 33 L-5.0wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-16.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Over49c745.02$365 inLost-$365.0695049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Under50c500$250 inWon+$25072647.7%346 W · 380 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Over50c500$250 inLost-$2501,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37d1…0c60backed Over54c313.13$169 inLost-$169.0920%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5eb9…fdf2backed Under50c217.74$109 inWon+$108.872100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaaa6…484abacked Under50c204.92$102 inWon+$102.462100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x69dc…336dbacked Over51c195.19$100 inLost-$10012950.4%65 W · 64 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbeab…3fb8backed Under51c152.86$78 inWon+$74.9366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+33.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49ab…f2a9backed Under49c150$74 inWon+$76.515247.4%72 W · 80 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9283…c1e1backed Under51c148.94$76 inWon+$72.98250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd239…9397backed Under51c145.02$74 inWon+$71.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4415…043abacked Under51c141.2$72 inWon+$69.24475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+50.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…e69fbacked Under51c137.18$70 inWon+$67.22450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc381…e24bbacked Under51c133.25$68 inWon+$65.293100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa55c…8083backed Under50c133.16$67 inWon+$66.58366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+36.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7980…dcdebacked Under51c129.33$66 inWon+$63.373100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+98.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x47f5…37bcbacked Under51c125.41$64 inWon+$61.453100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+98.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c86…fea7backed Under51c121.49$62 inWon+$59.533100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+105.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe52e…169cbacked Under51c117.57$60 inWon+$57.613100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+105.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f79…be19backed Under51c113.67$58 inWon+$55.74100%4 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+103.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa52a…3476backed Under51c109.75$56 inWon+$53.78250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0b7…9960backed Under51c105.82$54 inWon+$51.85250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5b1…0fd8backed Under52c99.94$52 inWon+$47.972100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e07…7703backed Under52c96.1$50 inWon+$46.132100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf948…b757backed Under52c92.25$48 inWon+$44.283100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d7e…254ebacked Under52c88.4$46 inWon+$42.433100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e48…76dfbacked Under52c84.56$44 inWon+$40.594100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0e1d…6bebbacked Under52c80.71$42 inWon+$38.74366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+33.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa59b…f801backed Under52c76.87$40 inWon+$36.9366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+33.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddc1…5da4backed Under51c60.71$31 inWon+$29.754100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+93.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7651…3c11backed Under51c54.82$28 inWon+$26.864100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b25…c762backed Under51c54.82$28 inWon+$26.864100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+93.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6b16…a497backed Under50c28$14 inWon+$14450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe947…2cf3backed Under50c20$10 inWon+$1084957.6%489 W · 360 L-52.1wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-9.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.