NBA · resolved market
Spread: Celtics (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8bc660646252c08bbc66499e56a02054c6937e4c2c8e02f999491dc8550b4b23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celticsof Celtics, Pistons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,709
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,578
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,709 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pistons | 58c | 1,322$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.05 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Pistons | 53c | 1,170$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.21 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0d…e220backed Celtics | 47c | 1,170$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.21 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Celtics | 47c | 1,161$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.41 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Celtics | 43c | 983.75$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.94 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Celtics | 41c | 613.71$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.34 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Celtics | 41c | 472$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.12 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Celtics | 46c | 365.22$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.22 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…0831backed Pistons | 60c | 165$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 185 | 58.4%108 W · 77 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Pistons | 58c | 140.8$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.01 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Pistons | 36c | 130.42$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.47 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Pistons | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 710 | 44.6%317 W · 393 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Pistons | 62c | 62.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 241 | 51.9%125 W · 116 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Pistons | 57c | 57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc65…19a0backed Celtics | 22c | 50.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 260 | 44.6%116 W · 144 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…4dd7backed Pistons | 69c | 44.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e3…1803backed Pistons | 69c | 43.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65fd…7cdebacked Celtics | 47c | 42.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.40per pick | 43cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc39c…416dbacked Pistons | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Pistons | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6777…f78abacked Pistons | 61c | 25.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1e…327abacked Pistons | 62c | 22.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Celtics (-1.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-1.5)Celtics won
- Pistons vs. CelticsCeltics won
- Pistons vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- Pistons vs. Celtics: O/U 227.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Celtics: O/U 228.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Celtics: O/U 229.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Celtics: O/U 230.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Celtics: O/U 231.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Celtics: O/U 232.5Under won
- Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Pistons (-3.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.