MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf456b7435cacd931e32b62e2f7b11b1d5238fd9903af3412b3a6906f247bfd4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,255
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,101
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,255 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2dd7…89aabacked Yes | 50c | 1,886$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$942.81 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 51c | 1,368$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.85 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe13f…c817backed No | 50c | 903.44$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.72 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3451…a6e1backed No | 15c | 369.63$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.19 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +97.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x094d…5a65backed No | 53c | 284.91$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.91 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x452f…f59bbacked No | 31c | 252.28$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.74 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.36per pick | 30cpaid | +120.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 48c | 235.35$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.97 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 47c | 205.24$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.28 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…7348backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed No | 53c | 188.67$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.79 | 346 | 50.9%176 W · 170 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e6…f893backed No | 55c | 178.61$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f6…b051backed Yes | 51c | 160$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 173 | 46.2%80 W · 93 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Yes | 51c | 130$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 46c | 96.08$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 14c | 86.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.67 | 547 | 15.9%87 W · 460 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x945b…178bbacked No | 62c | 67.74$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ad…5a42backed No | 50c | 64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd25…a624backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed No | 50c | 56.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x540e…263dbacked No | 49c | 53.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 48c | 49.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 48c | 40.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed No | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed No | 51c | 39.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 257 | 48.2%124 W · 133 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20f8…f1a7backed No | 69c | 35.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…5fa9backed No | 60c | 33.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 47c | 24.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…1fafbacked No | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 124 | 48.4%60 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a5…3da0backed Yes | 51c | 20.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 263 | 15.6%41 W · 222 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Soxthis page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White SoxAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 4.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.