MLB · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62df0da0f76504d51c5f9e58b772614475b9963f2e69e9a50b3475fc74869e6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof Atlanta Braves, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,031
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,177
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,031 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa084…bb99backed Atlanta Braves | 45c | 20,269$9,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,021.89 | 107 | 48.6%52 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chicago White Sox | 52c | 10,165$5,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,879.12 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago White Sox | 59c | 8,649$5,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,543.33 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85bc…a12abacked Chicago White Sox | 71c | 704.23$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago White Sox | 68c | 485.87$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.7 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…ecb8backed Chicago White Sox | 71c | 474.98$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.74 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 49cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3451…a6e1backed Chicago White Sox | 48c | 361.53$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.31 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +97.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Chicago White Sox | 70c | 326.67$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba92…2196backed Atlanta Braves | 30c | 326.67$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Chicago White Sox | 69c | 225.81$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…b55dbacked Chicago White Sox | 12c | 169.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.27 | 29 | 86.2%25 W · 4 L | +8.3wins | +0.29per pick | 58cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Chicago White Sox | 66c | 131.03$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.04 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Atlanta Braves | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Chicago White Sox | 65c | 109.08$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.11 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Chicago White Sox | 55c | 99.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.49 | 587 | 46%270 W · 317 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked Atlanta Braves | 15c | 98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Atlanta Braves | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Atlanta Braves | 30c | 73.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5a…9d75backed Atlanta Braves | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 15.2%16 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Atlanta Braves | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Chicago White Sox | 27c | 46.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Atlanta Braves | 30c | 41.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Atlanta Braves | 29c | 34.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Chicago White Sox | 69c | 29.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago White Sox | 70c | 27.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff14…dd5bbacked Chicago White Sox | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Chicago White Sox | 60c | 19.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White SoxAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 4.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White SoxNo won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.