TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,535,739
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,784,420

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,535,739 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,908 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2c33…0563backed No64c632,041$403,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403,998.3474752.2%390 W · 357 L+2.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed No74c264,174$195,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195,863.422,40737.7%908 W · 1,499 L-48.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf031…c80cbacked Yes24c257,429$61,709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195,720.2633538.2%128 W · 207 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked No75c237,338$177,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177,541.6138734.4%133 W · 254 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes53c228,420$120,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108,173.184,59540.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L-91.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed No75c184,847$138,927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138,927.0529952.5%157 W · 142 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes43c123,234$52,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70,834.298,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Yes27c101,397$27,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74,310.8242345.6%193 W · 230 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes24c95,313$22,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72,372.941,26247.5%600 W · 662 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10a6…4d8bbacked Yes27c85,897$23,589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62,307.4564446.4%299 W · 345 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Yes32c66,548$21,537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,010.981,22443.4%531 W · 693 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed No32c61,342$19,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,9301,14439.2%448 W · 696 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99c4…18e7backed No37c51,855$19,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,145.1313037.7%49 W · 81 L-10.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-41.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Yes27c51,176$14,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,120.414232.4%46 W · 96 L-12.8wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-28%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8806…2e83backed No74c38,883$28,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,787.5728229.4%83 W · 199 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-38%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8325…19ccbacked Yes74c31,308$23,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,129.2266846.7%312 W · 356 L+45.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Yes49c28,761$14,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,541.9824441.8%102 W · 142 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6880…cf03backed Yes24c25,000$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,0006048.3%29 W · 31 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+30.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked No46c24,962$11,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,562.9722959.4%136 W · 93 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa700…102bbacked No1c22,930$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.7751514.2%73 W · 442 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick13cpaid+9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6550…8451backed No53c22,067$11,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,771.8521738.7%84 W · 133 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed No26c21,584$5,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,598.912,30737.6%867 W · 1,440 L-16.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cf6…0e3bbacked Yes34c18,757$6,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,445.1926534%90 W · 175 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0520…e4e0backed Yes55c17,371$9,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,870.8525336.8%93 W · 160 L+0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a7b…0d1cbacked Yes25c15,840$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,840.29616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-34%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd744…526fbacked Yes24c15,000$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,399.993844.7%17 W · 21 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+32.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe183…62e6backed Yes51c15,000$7,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,349.981752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Yes24c14,893$3,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,311.072,43929%707 W · 1,732 L-65.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked No41c14,236$5,877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,876.5575335.6%268 W · 485 L+0.3wins0.00per pick36cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Yes24c14,027$3,366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,660.1470244.6%313 W · 389 L+13.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed No32c13,436$4,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,331.681,60147.8%765 W · 836 L+51.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf15f…4497backed Yes25c13,333$3,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,999.9912754.3%69 W · 58 L+0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No42c13,106$5,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,502.073,69636.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L-44.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe337…4ad6backed Yes61c12,775$7,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,040.0830054%162 W · 138 L+17.1wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+32.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc08…a137backed No35c12,453$4,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,358.667045.7%32 W · 38 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+39.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe301…8654backed Yes61c12,317$7,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,818.2144130.8%136 W · 305 L-11.6wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-29.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1685…6de4backed Yes31c12,185$3,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,385.227239%106 W · 166 L-12.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-28.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e0a…b9ccbacked Yes27c11,479$3,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,395.1719850.5%100 W · 98 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4f1a…bc89backed Yes53c11,415$6,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,325.4410959.6%65 W · 44 L+9.7wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked No21c11,370$2,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,413.9714132.6%46 W · 95 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-35.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Yes24c10,949$2,583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,366.314,45737.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L+31.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes24c10,926$2,624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,301.811,56043.8%684 W · 876 L-4.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76aa…eff9backed No32c10,031$3,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,249.4825753.3%137 W · 120 L+23.5wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+17.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdb15…8393backed Yes25c10,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,50014829.7%44 W · 104 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d7f…a878backed Yes24c10,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,6006737.3%25 W · 42 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+18.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb87b…3626backed Yes24c10,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,599.9824526.5%65 W · 180 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7c2…73bfbacked Yes41c9,893$4,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,836.6856151%286 W · 275 L+15.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No74c9,484$7,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,022.581,25239.2%491 W · 761 L+6.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-20.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa2fc…b1b4backed Yes72c9,468$6,847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,620.7136634.4%126 W · 240 L-24.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-38.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed No58c8,717$5,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,068.5142043.1%181 W · 239 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-32.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes37c8,230$3,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,220.9679231.1%246 W · 546 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-34.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Yes62c8,010$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,010.0731945.5%145 W · 174 L-0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fae…4079backed Yes25c8,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,0006833.8%23 W · 45 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f34…7684backed Yes26c7,829$2,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,774.165835%230 W · 428 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8028…6117backed Yes24c7,500$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,700540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid+10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03b8…b4aebacked Yes49c7,340$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,739.5923353.2%124 W · 109 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x927c…6633backed No48c7,060$3,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,389.3910251%52 W · 50 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+16.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9602…4d02backed No72c7,033$5,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,055.2431945.1%144 W · 175 L+1.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x896e…53f2backed Yes39c6,471$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,970.6617443.1%75 W · 99 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed No41c6,408$2,655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,654.9171939.1%281 W · 438 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-33%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa5f…6bfebacked Yes24c5,933$1,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,509.2220844.7%93 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbb…9a17backed No77c5,594$4,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,307.0617452.3%91 W · 83 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16a8…e652backed Yes25c5,442$1,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,081.234261.9%26 W · 16 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3d3…bb8ebacked Yes24c5,417$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,116.6722448.2%108 W · 116 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x999a…9a25backed No45c5,340$2,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,411.2724443%105 W · 139 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-29.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfea8…47aabacked Yes25c5,288$1,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,9664548.9%22 W · 23 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick37cpaid+21.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd760…f7f5backed Yes25c5,200$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,90010234.3%35 W · 67 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ac9…92d3backed Yes29c5,129$1,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,62822622.1%50 W · 176 L-1.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid+48.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae94…6b17backed Yes24c5,000$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,80010956%61 W · 48 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ea…2f71backed Yes49c4,982$2,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,527.7910753.3%57 W · 50 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Yes25c4,890$1,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,667.881,98532.5%645 W · 1,340 L-47.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked No19c4,774$926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$926.4558926.8%158 W · 431 L-30.5wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-44.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x52c8…9b69backed Yes24c4,600$1,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,49647321.6%102 W · 371 L-2.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No51c4,596$2,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,346.0331232.4%101 W · 211 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed Yes64c4,590$2,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,669.996241.9%26 W · 36 L-5.1wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc88f…d893backed Yes62c4,316$2,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,627.5210932.1%35 W · 74 L-9.5wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-26.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x007f…58dabacked Yes29c4,191$1,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,961.417243.1%31 W · 41 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Yes24c4,167$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,166.6667447.6%321 W · 353 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88f9…5c03backed Yes46c4,130$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,229.9111559.1%68 W · 47 L+11.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+21.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe6a9…e35abacked Yes25c3,992$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,9945339.6%21 W · 32 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x870f…6da1backed Yes26c3,989$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,948.4922338.1%85 W · 138 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c73…6ee3backed Yes25c3,952$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,9644250%21 W · 21 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2217…1660backed Yes66c3,921$2,595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,325.4763544.4%282 W · 353 L-18.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked No73c3,862$2,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,823.382,60337.8%984 W · 1,619 L-40.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf393…9b65backed Yes27c3,851$1,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,817.0110624.5%26 W · 80 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-32.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fe8…72bcbacked Yes32c3,731$1,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,532.2317852.2%93 W · 85 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c95…bf21backed Yes27c3,704$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,703.74454.5%24 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc468…3f67backed Yes27c3,704$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,703.711616.4%19 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick16cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebc0…5806backed Yes79c3,648$2,865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783.4910166.3%67 W · 34 L+8.6wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbc48…24c3backed No72c3,640$2,621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,620.83842.1%16 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeff8…68ebbacked Yes24c3,600$864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,73613237.1%49 W · 83 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x68e1…b2fabacked Yes25c3,600$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,70014757.8%85 W · 62 L+16.7wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+24.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc89f…695bbacked Yes28c3,581$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,582.254845.8%22 W · 26 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+4.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd2bf…f980backed Yes55c3,512$1,926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,585.911538.3%44 W · 71 L-9.2wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-37.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x54f0…7725backed Yes23c3,478$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,678.269636.5%35 W · 61 L-5.5wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-23%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd9af…359cbacked Yes29c3,402$997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,404.5913352.6%70 W · 63 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+4.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x613a…2185backed No9c3,384$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.3546230.1%139 W · 323 L-13.8wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3980…2d8bbacked Yes55c3,275$1,801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,473.881952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed No65c3,270$2,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,111.942,81944.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L-36.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95f7…5541backed Yes41c3,125$1,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,840.510544.8%47 W · 58 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.