TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf393…9b65

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
658
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: MLB, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category MLB at 58 out of 100; worst NBA at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Lollast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT28836.8%106 W · 182 L-15.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Lol — the 288 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked Top Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$322Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$321.88
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked Top Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$1,039Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,038.86
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked Anyone's Legend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,335Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,334.87
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team WE · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.28
LoL: EDward Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked ThunderTalk Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$691Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$691.3
LoL: LGD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$2,752Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+37.9%+$1,043.85
LoL: LGD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked LGD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$136.52
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$2,316Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$771.32
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Groupbacked Nongshim Red Force · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$49.5
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Groupbacked Dplus KIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$728Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$728.41
LoL: Team WE vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked EDward Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$1,226Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+356.7%+$4,375.51
LoL: Team WE vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team WE · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,220Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,220.28
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Groupbacked DN SOOPers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$523Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$523
LoL: LNG Esports vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvanabacked Weibo Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$872Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+62.1%+$541.79
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winnerbacked Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$2,340Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,340
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Groupbacked KT Rolster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$165.75
LoL: LNG Esports vs Weibo Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked LNG Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$327Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$727.94
LoL: LNG Esports vs Weibo Gaming - Game 1 Winnerbacked Weibo Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$58
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DN SOOPers - Game 3 Winnerbacked Nongshim Red Force · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,215Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,214.56
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DN SOOPers (BO5) - KeSPA Cup Playoffsbacked Nongshim Red Force · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$169.99
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winnerbacked Nongshim Red Force · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$588Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$588.06
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Challenge Groupbacked Dplus KIA Challengers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$138.21
LoL: G2 Esports vs Fnatic - Game 2 Winnerbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,440Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,440
LoL: Top Esports vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked EDward Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$331Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$331.43
LoL: Top Esports vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked Top Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,057Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$315.79
Showing 25 of 288 picks, newest first.
CS2last resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT10946.8%51 W · 58 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
CS2 — the 109 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Astralis - Map 2 Winnerbacked Astralis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$178Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$178.2
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group Dbacked 9z · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.13
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs MOUZ (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffsbacked 3DMAX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$139.36
Counter-Strike: NIP vs paiN (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifierbacked paiN · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$60.76
Counter-Strike: NIP vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Group Dbacked NIP · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$376Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$295.24
Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifierbacked EYEBALLERS · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.45
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifierbacked Team Nemesis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$230.12
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NIP (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifierbacked M80 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$173Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$173.24
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffsbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$2,333Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+44.6%+$1,039.55
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffsbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$280Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+269.8%+$755.1
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffsbacked Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,364Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+81.7%+$1,113.96
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffsbacked Aurora Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+41.9%+$40.9
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.96
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed BetBoom Team · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,473Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+96.2%+$1,417.58
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed 9z · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+137.2%+$144.58
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.78
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed TheMongolz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,527Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+110.3%+$1,684.52
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$419Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$256.86
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$118.04
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$612Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$611.57
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed Aurora Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$927Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+82.6%+$765.99
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$2,080Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+26.1%+$543.3
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$78.63
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed G2 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$482Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+46.1%+$222.26
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,065Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,065.17
Showing 25 of 109 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 18, 2026, EDT10624.5%26 W · 80 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-32.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 106 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
France vs. England: Team to Winbacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,400
Will England vs. Argentina end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$3,691Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,691.24
France vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$3,501Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,501.02
Will Colombia vs. Ghana end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$48
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.16
Will Australia vs. Egypt end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$64
Australia vs. Egypt: Team to Advancebacked Egypt · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$955Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$720.68
Switzerland vs. Algeria: Team to Advancebacked Algeria · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$1,824Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,824.08
Portugal vs. Croatia: Team to Advancebacked Portugal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$2,131Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+37%+$788.13
Will Portugal vs. Croatia end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$665Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$665.4
Will Austria win on 2026-07-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.25
Will Spain vs. Austria end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$503Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$502.5
Will United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$114.18
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.42
Belgium vs. Senegal: Team to Advancebacked Senegal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,055Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,054.96
Will England vs. DR Congo end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$1,184Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,184
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Team to Advancebacked Ecuador · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$446Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$446
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Team to Advancebacked Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$5,483Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+61.1%+$3,349.48
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.93
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+133.8%+$114.46
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advancebacked Netherlands · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$5,043Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,043
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$580Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+351.5%+$2,038.89
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advancebacked Germany · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$3,389Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,388.94
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advancebacked Brazil · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$992Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+78.7%+$780.43
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advancebacked Canada · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$4,703Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+42.7%+$2,007.35
Showing 25 of 106 picks, newest first.
Dota2last resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT7650%38 W · 38 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 76 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Playoffsbacked Team Yandex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$213Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$395.85
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winnerbacked TEAM VISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$246Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+62.5%+$153.47
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Playoffsbacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,696Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+92.1%+$1,561.1
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Playoffsbacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.61
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Playoffsbacked BoomBoys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$464Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$464.12
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Elimination Roundbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,445Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+28.9%+$417.59
Dota 2: Iron Wing vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winnerbacked Iron Wing · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$450Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+36.4%+$163.83
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Resilience · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$139Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$440.04
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$386Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+41.1%+$158.71
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Group Stagebacked TEAM VISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$556Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+62%+$344.93
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International Group Stagebacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$103.67
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffsbacked LGD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$178Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$178.42
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffsbacked Aurora · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.24
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffsbacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.27
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffsbacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stagebacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$62
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - DreamLeague Group Bbacked REKONIX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.16
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winnerbacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.38
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Group Abacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.32
Dota 2: ex-HEROIC vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Group Abacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$11.5
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Group Abacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+34.9%+$21.07
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffsbacked 1win · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.03
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs PlayTime (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffsbacked Nigma Galaxy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$218Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$218.32
Dota 2: MOUZ vs 1win (BO3) - 1win Essence Group Abacked MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.76
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs REKONIX (BO3) - 1win Essence Group Bbacked REKONIX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$262Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+47%+$122.91
Showing 25 of 76 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT1361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick42cpaid+26.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
MLB — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockiesbacked Arizona Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Metsbacked New York Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$27.52
Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati Redsbacked Cincinnati Reds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.66
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giantsbacked San Francisco Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.1
San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationalsbacked San Francisco Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+108.6%+$79.8
Texas Rangers vs. Athleticsbacked Texas Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,320Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+112.5%+$1,484.05
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Piratesbacked Washington Nationals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$866Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+149.5%+$1,294.18
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Marinersbacked Seattle Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$200
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Raysbacked New York Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$145.93
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubsbacked Pittsburgh Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+150%+$24
Athletics vs. New York Yankeesbacked New York Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,601Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,601.14
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Washington Nationalsbacked St. Louis Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$45.42
San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Piratesbacked San Diego Padres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$84.19
All 13 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick24cpaid-88.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
NBA — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pistons vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$430Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$430.04
Knicks vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$141.43
Spurs vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.16
Lakers vs. Thunderbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.62
Rockets vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.1
Suns vs. Thunderbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.16
76ers vs. Celticsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.43
Hawks vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$408Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$192
Grizzlies vs. Nuggetsbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.17
Suns vs. Bullsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.32
Rockets vs. Heatbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$54.88
Raptors vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$97.99
Magic vs. Sunsbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$57.12
All 13 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2026, EDT1258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+32.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$46.08
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$123.13
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,415Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,414.95
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$25.48
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$41
Will Newcastle United FC vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$173.9
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$231Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$147.81
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-02-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$39.9
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-02-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+65.5%+$14.64
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+426.3%+$112.58
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$187Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+49.5%+$92.69
All 12 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 11, 2026, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick36cpaid+99.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Premier League — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$996Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+120.9%+$1,203.96
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-04-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.05
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-04-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.44
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+62.8%+$16.01
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$275Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+36.7%+$100.86
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-03-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+1,017.3%+$878.53
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,379Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$1,378.7
Will Everton FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+60.2%+$92.1
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$14.54
All 9 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$450Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$450
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$176Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$175.87
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-04-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$210Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+84.9%+$178.56
Will Athletic Club vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+31.6%+$22.32
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+69.5%+$40.18
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Getafe CF end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+32%+$14.78
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$79.34
Will Athletic Club vs. Elche CF end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$958Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+44%+$421.26
Will Elche CF win on 2026-02-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$225.5
All 9 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-39.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick18cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 7, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-39.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Golden Knights vs. Ducksbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.87
Wild vs. Starsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.63
Canadiens vs. Lightningbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$173Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$173.23
All 3 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved May 8, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-05-08?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$46
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$21.85
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Jannik Sinnerbacked Felix Auger-Aliassime · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.35
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Men's Final - Canada vs. USAbacked Canada · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$68.76
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.