TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
G2of FUT Esports, G2
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,445,103
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,731,963

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,445,103 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,621 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1136…0c2ebacked FUT Esports53c200,027$106,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106,237.4914050.7%71 W · 69 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked G258c101,827$58,844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,983.0283652.5%439 W · 397 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed FUT Esports50c95,000$47,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,099.9450054.4%272 W · 228 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9c4…7433backed G247c84,026$39,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,574.513244.7%59 W · 73 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked G257c61,674$34,901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,773.0421655.1%119 W · 97 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked FUT Esports54c60,000$32,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,399.9475758.3%441 W · 316 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked G249c53,980$26,658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,322.325555.3%141 W · 114 L+1.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe40e…9770backed FUT Esports53c50,000$26,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,499.9417951.4%92 W · 87 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4f8…4de0backed G248c47,698$22,811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,887.831650%8 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6adc…bebabacked FUT Esports32c46,299$14,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,815.7813633.1%45 W · 91 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1610…ae49backed FUT Esports43c40,043$17,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,127.3813548.9%66 W · 69 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+5.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed G246c40,000$18,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,599.9533043.3%143 W · 187 L+1.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked G248c35,000$16,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,20075452.7%397 W · 357 L+27.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e5e…7315backed G259c35,000$20,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,449.9922843.9%100 W · 128 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-0.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfa6…6c6cbacked FUT Esports44c33,870$14,951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,951.12356.5%13 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+20.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb85…152fbacked G248c31,250$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,25016344.2%72 W · 91 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed G246c30,000$13,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,199.941649.8%207 W · 209 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4229…2e67backed FUT Esports54c28,854$15,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,581.0420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked FUT Esports53c27,601$14,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,713.7238358.7%225 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed FUT Esports52c26,923$14,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,00023839.9%95 W · 143 L-11.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cd1…285dbacked G250c24,000$12,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,0009248.9%45 W · 47 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0111…1071backed FUT Esports53c23,982$12,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,799.992564%16 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+31.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed G246c21,113$9,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,414.2825255.6%140 W · 112 L+18.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+14.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc56b…8012backed G247c19,288$9,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,168.33650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9368…80a3backed FUT Esports53c18,047$9,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,564.94744.7%21 W · 26 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a4c…1f30backed G247c17,500$8,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,2753351.5%17 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8488…588cbacked G248c16,712$7,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,761.724250%21 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed FUT Esports50c14,583$7,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,282.526744.8%30 W · 37 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked G256c14,120$7,946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,174.0441040%164 W · 246 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked G254c14,000$7,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,449.9329127.5%80 W · 211 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed G269c13,994$9,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,406.5964552.9%341 W · 304 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x89dd…f662backed G244c13,947$6,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,810.426940.6%28 W · 41 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfdf6…00a1backed G260c13,204$7,869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,335.35666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick62cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9db8…2effbacked FUT Esports33c12,497$4,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,099.5213043.1%56 W · 74 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55a1…db28backed FUT Esports42c12,000$5,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,039.991963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+31.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked G247c12,000$5,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,359.9536152.6%190 W · 171 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked G247c11,819$5,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,264.1547047.4%223 W · 247 L+11.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed FUT Esports52c11,317$5,885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,884.8417643.2%76 W · 100 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked G246c10,870$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,869.5722354.7%122 W · 101 L-9.5wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked G251c10,724$5,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,219.5615053.3%80 W · 70 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed FUT Esports44c10,575$4,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,611.545,26231.3%1,647 W · 3,615 L-381.6wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5faf…1183backed FUT Esports53c10,545$5,629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,629.0910935.8%39 W · 70 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed FUT Esports50c10,377$5,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,198.2317737.3%66 W · 111 L-16.0wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed FUT Esports53c10,127$5,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,413.5875350.5%380 W · 373 L+16.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf886…2620backed G250c10,090$5,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,019.8510359.2%61 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b1e…65c1backed FUT Esports49c10,000$4,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,887.058938.2%34 W · 55 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c1c…7980backed G247c10,000$4,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,3006841.2%28 W · 40 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0562…18a4backed FUT Esports33c10,000$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,30020448.5%99 W · 105 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67a4…32a8backed FUT Esports30c10,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0001136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47b3…039cbacked FUT Esports38c10,000$3,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,8505742.1%24 W · 33 L-0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed G270c10,000$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,999.9923852.9%126 W · 112 L-0.8wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e23…e933backed FUT Esports52c10,000$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,199.9812660.3%76 W · 50 L-0.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31b0…8bf3backed FUT Esports56c9,650$5,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,403.994136.6%15 W · 26 L-5.5wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-30.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5f45…a77abacked G259c9,456$5,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,867.9421251.4%109 W · 103 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed G243c9,431$4,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,375.772227.3%6 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-37.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed FUT Esports31c9,339$2,895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,895.2223355.4%129 W · 104 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84d1…2c48backed FUT Esports54c9,259$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0001136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick55cpaid-43.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6978…9897backed FUT Esports55c9,158$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00012449.2%61 W · 63 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-9.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed FUT Esports37c9,100$3,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,377.1430340.3%122 W · 181 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3da8…80c3backed FUT Esports54c9,000$4,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,86033359.8%199 W · 134 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed G247c9,000$4,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,799.9814950.3%75 W · 74 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed FUT Esports53c9,000$4,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,769.9446749.7%232 W · 235 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c05…9e9fbacked FUT Esports22c8,721$1,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,930.342920.7%6 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-48.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6f5…f3b5backed G270c8,529$5,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,558.719443.6%41 W · 53 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-23.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1ff8…5e5dbacked G251c8,275$4,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,031.899549.5%47 W · 48 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc6e…fa6fbacked FUT Esports37c8,017$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00016248.1%78 W · 84 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa69d…509bbacked G247c8,000$3,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,24019757.4%113 W · 84 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed G254c7,933$4,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,649.772,61051.7%1,349 W · 1,261 L+16.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10e0…c736backed G258c7,779$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,279.3714362.9%90 W · 53 L+11.2wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked FUT Esports44c7,604$3,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,3261,62144.8%726 W · 895 L+3.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce80…08edbacked FUT Esports53c7,602$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00011947.1%56 W · 63 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf1a…ba1ebacked G247c7,600$3,572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,027.994445.5%20 W · 24 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd27c…c081backed FUT Esports60c7,555$4,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,532.997766.2%51 W · 26 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb86…4441backed G267c7,375$4,947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,428.51633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick60cpaid-45.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1edc…77bfbacked FUT Esports54c7,307$3,946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,945.5320%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x97fd…3313backed G246c7,258$3,339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,919.3611439.5%45 W · 69 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb417…d931backed FUT Esports40c7,240$2,914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,914.496446.9%30 W · 34 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf2a…5ae1backed FUT Esports42c7,147$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00012955%71 W · 58 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed G246c7,005$3,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,782.9184658.4%494 W · 352 L+60.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed G248c7,000$3,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,64023848.3%115 W · 123 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked FUT Esports42c6,810$2,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,892.372,33042.5%991 W · 1,339 L-71.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe916…7e93backed FUT Esports44c6,748$2,949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,948.773636.1%13 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed G257c6,716$3,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,876.21,39638.9%543 W · 853 L-41.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked G265c6,694$4,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,329.132,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed G257c6,550$3,719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,831.1966551.9%345 W · 320 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9a6…0009backed G246c6,500$2,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,510977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.30per pick48cpaid+63.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed G243c6,500$2,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,70546149.9%230 W · 231 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03f8…d85abacked G261c6,399$3,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,519.046464.1%41 W · 23 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7553…65cabacked G260c6,250$3,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5003844.7%17 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x525b…c7c7backed G247c6,190$2,909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,280.79425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-46.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed G246c5,873$2,702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,171.6567041.8%280 W · 390 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked G264c5,792$3,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,056.721,76859.2%1,047 W · 721 L+105.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd09f…a425backed FUT Esports53c5,660$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe6…7027backed FUT Esports53c5,555$2,924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,924.452152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked G247c5,409$2,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,848.675,02855%2,763 W · 2,265 L+112.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f63…9551backed G250c5,398$2,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,678.044252.4%22 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked G248c5,224$2,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,731.0912956.6%73 W · 56 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b89…1069backed G245c5,183$2,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,850.98752.9%46 W · 41 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07e2…4b9cbacked FUT Esports38c5,003$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,900.188032.5%26 W · 54 L-7.0wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-45.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed G247c5,000$2,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,65019543.6%85 W · 110 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.