TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
TEAM VISIONof TEAM VISION, Team Spirit
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$756,602
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$796,154

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $756,602 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 366 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6d20…a165backed Team Spirit40c298,252$118,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118,003.439733%32 W · 65 L-8.9wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-25.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed TEAM VISION60c147,341$88,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58,605.9912259.8%73 W · 49 L+11.6wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed TEAM VISION60c74,498$44,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,799.2912560%75 W · 50 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+5.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1896…a7d6backed Team Spirit40c48,141$19,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,245.643043.3%13 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72f0…6be8backed TEAM VISION61c40,000$24,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,6001957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+32.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked TEAM VISION61c25,000$15,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,7501,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Team Spirit14c21,267$2,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,918.5271143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6304…e570backed Team Spirit38c16,649$6,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,385.9227645.3%125 W · 151 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadea…b96dbacked Team Spirit13c15,000$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,949.99731.4%1 W · 72 L-7.1wins-0.10per pick11cpaid-91.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x30c1…9f91backed TEAM VISION61c12,500$7,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,875966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+50.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8992…ed1fbacked Team Spirit38c12,425$4,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,736.996050%30 W · 30 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52e5…60babacked TEAM VISION64c11,975$7,703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,271.788959.6%53 W · 36 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked TEAM VISION62c10,561$6,548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,013.3113960.4%84 W · 55 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x930e…38cfbacked Team Spirit15c8,518$1,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,258.4637018.9%70 W · 300 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed TEAM VISION60c8,000$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,2002867.9%19 W · 9 L+4.2wins+0.15per pick53cpaid+36.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6111…4742backed TEAM VISION62c7,884$4,888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,995.894957.1%28 W · 21 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2095…873ebacked Team Spirit31c7,857$2,438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,437.74143.9%18 W · 23 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Team Spirit35c7,825$2,757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,75764744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Team Spirit35c7,779$2,723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,722.7319847%93 W · 105 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked Team Spirit16c6,816$1,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,090.5536041.4%149 W · 211 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Team Spirit38c6,755$2,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,566.9411446.5%53 W · 61 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe522…cc1abacked TEAM VISION62c6,450$3,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,450.912560%15 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfaf…d959backed Team Spirit38c6,381$2,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,424.726541.5%27 W · 38 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x898b…6c00backed Team Spirit17c6,100$1,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0374850%24 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Team Spirit38c5,664$2,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,138.398536.5%31 W · 54 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ae…82bdbacked Team Spirit3c5,250$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1808223.2%19 W · 63 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick19cpaid-23.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked Team Spirit40c5,000$1,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.1414515.2%22 W · 123 L-16.5wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x98eb…8c14backed Team Spirit26c4,438$1,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1552661.5%16 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2a5…55d6backed TEAM VISION62c4,268$2,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,634.562045%9 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked TEAM VISION63c4,216$2,656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,559.923336.9%86 W · 147 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-34.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51c7…98aabacked TEAM VISION60c4,167$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,666.6729160.1%175 W · 116 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc56…8f28backed TEAM VISION61c3,783$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,483.488757.5%50 W · 37 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked TEAM VISION71c3,638$2,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.751,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked Team Spirit36c3,585$1,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,272.9110040%40 W · 60 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked Team Spirit14c3,500$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50537811.1%42 W · 336 L+0.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed TEAM VISION62c3,451$2,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,306.9917648.3%85 W · 91 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c7d…83edbacked Team Spirit17c3,025$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.41844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed Team Spirit37c3,000$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1106535.4%23 W · 42 L-6.6wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-27.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5eab…d552backed Team Spirit18c3,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5406725.4%17 W · 50 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick28cpaid+4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df4…0b7abacked Team Spirit20c2,729$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.376851.5%35 W · 33 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x284f…31efbacked Team Spirit13c2,700$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3616328.6%18 W · 45 L-0.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Team Spirit37c2,685$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.246726.9%18 W · 49 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-14.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Team Spirit38c2,561$973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$973.4811649.1%57 W · 59 L+11.5wins+0.10per pick39cpaid+25.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xed44…4f76backed Team Spirit12c2,515$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.1720030.5%61 W · 139 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-44.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0269…fb00backed Team Spirit21c2,353$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Team Spirit37c2,250$832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832.4881029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xede1…7dd1backed Team Spirit11c2,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2202317.4%4 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-46.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed TEAM VISION59c2,000$1,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$820862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Team Spirit28c1,920$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.661,15147.8%550 W · 601 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b60…edbebacked TEAM VISION78c1,719$1,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.174837.5%18 W · 30 L-7.9wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-31.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb9b2…8e7dbacked TEAM VISION63c1,693$1,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.494553.3%24 W · 21 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+17%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xade2…e86dbacked TEAM VISION63c1,587$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.053548.6%17 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-22.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c52…1a59backed TEAM VISION63c1,554$979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.816374.6%47 W · 16 L+9.6wins+0.15per pick59cpaid+26.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8d1f…5757backed Team Spirit19c1,422$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2771723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8268…6146backed Team Spirit38c1,392$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9c1…ad4dbacked Team Spirit16c1,369$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.96728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-18.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57b4…b46bbacked TEAM VISION59c1,273$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.0324246.7%113 W · 129 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb88…0e4cbacked TEAM VISION62c1,159$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.85560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24a5…50f0backed Team Spirit35c1,149$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.94933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+44%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb9f…345cbacked Team Spirit38c1,124$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4271020%2 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-55.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Team Spirit12c1,123$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.1771142.6%303 W · 408 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3aa5…cd80backed Team Spirit36c1,118$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.443256.3%18 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc77…c035backed Team Spirit15c1,113$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.511650%8 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked TEAM VISION61c1,100$671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4296553.8%35 W · 30 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ff…3506backed Team Spirit20c1,063$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.998035%28 W · 52 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x656e…9339backed Team Spirit17c1,053$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17914353.8%77 W · 66 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Team Spirit38c1,053$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40048539.2%190 W · 295 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3452…1ba0backed TEAM VISION63c1,000$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37018351.9%95 W · 88 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1d3…b8debacked Team Spirit2c1,000$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.569552.2%363 W · 332 L+45.3wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbadb…31a7backed TEAM VISION61c999.9$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.963754.1%20 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Team Spirit37c988.38$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.765647.3%310 W · 346 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75c5…5bbabacked Team Spirit14c976.17$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.6621941.1%90 W · 129 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed TEAM VISION66c935.89$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.0437146.4%172 W · 199 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Spirit29c935.8$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.212,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x64f4…b38ebacked Team Spirit38c921.05$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3509340.9%38 W · 55 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf393…9b65backed TEAM VISION62c901.18$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.937650%38 W · 38 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2d0…1a68backed Team Spirit8c900$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75238.7%2 W · 21 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-66.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0f09…fc31backed TEAM VISION80c856.08$683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.6520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd36…6674backed TEAM VISION60c840.37$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.15650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Team Spirit37c816.21$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3022250%11 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+20.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x00a9…36bbbacked TEAM VISION62c809.26$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.264542.2%19 W · 26 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x363c…9b0ebacked TEAM VISION63c790.05$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.0512048.3%58 W · 62 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked Team Spirit38c789.47$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020727.5%57 W · 150 L-11.8wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-20%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8002…8b6cbacked Team Spirit27c778.06$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.633250%16 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-23.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x789f…20ecbacked TEAM VISION62c774.32$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.782352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Team Spirit20c757.99$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.635637.1%132 W · 224 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x697f…e44ebacked Team Spirit9c725.4$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6211159.5%66 W · 45 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Team Spirit38c690.68$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.461353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff44…9e86backed TEAM VISION61c658.73$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.733243.8%14 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-29.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3c2b…825ebacked Team Spirit38c642$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.9610437.5%39 W · 65 L-9.3wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7f88…c6e8backed TEAM VISION60c633.96$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.5812335.8%44 W · 79 L-13.7wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-32.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x41f4…ee16backed TEAM VISION63c564$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.6838547.5%183 W · 202 L-0.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae30…107bbacked TEAM VISION60c550$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.35per pick53cpaid+66.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd25f…eab3backed Team Spirit7c547.16$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8310840.7%44 W · 64 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbf3…70e3backed TEAM VISION60c539.92$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.65666.1%37 W · 19 L+8.0wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+31.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9bd2…b613backed TEAM VISION62c537.1$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.14577.8%35 W · 10 L+4.1wins+0.09per pick69cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1bac…d241backed Team Spirit38c504.21$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.69838.8%38 W · 60 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Team Spirit15c500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751,24744.4%554 W · 693 L+17.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a53…dfefbacked Team Spirit38c500$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1906149.2%30 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacc9…7881backed Team Spirit38c497.37$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1892445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.