Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Team Spirit (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85d1ff309daab0874612d7523d2de046dca42b010fd2bda02288005558ec3bae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- TEAM VISIONof TEAM VISION, Team Spirit
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,467
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,845
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,467 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x94cb…64e3backed TEAM VISION | 33c | 2,000$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,340 | 188 | 30.9%58 W · 130 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8992…ed1fbacked Team Spirit | 67c | 1,839$1,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,232.13 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…89cfbacked TEAM VISION | 33c | 896.99$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.98 | 360 | 41.4%149 W · 211 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3657…6cd3backed Team Spirit | 67c | 769.99$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.89 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fc…b1b4backed Team Spirit | 68c | 593.7$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.02 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…3988backed Team Spirit | 66c | 388.25$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.64 | 194 | 60.3%117 W · 77 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked TEAM VISION | 34c | 376.85$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.77 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked TEAM VISION | 32c | 365.12$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.28 | 268 | 46.6%125 W · 143 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f88…c6e8backed Team Spirit | 66c | 300$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.72 | 123 | 35.8%44 W · 79 L | -13.7wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…1ce7backed Team Spirit | 66c | 232.65$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.55 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd331…733cbacked Team Spirit | 68c | 232$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.02 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed TEAM VISION | 32c | 197.18$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.9 | 108 | 53.7%58 W · 50 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Team Spirit | 42c | 150$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.15 | 222 | 40.1%89 W · 133 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed TEAM VISION | 66c | 143.56$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.42 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed TEAM VISION | 36c | 139.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.39 | 595 | 56.6%337 W · 258 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Team Spirit | 46c | 136.4$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.33 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8966…363fbacked Team Spirit | 77c | 130.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Team Spirit | 38c | 129.06$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…5ac0backed TEAM VISION | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.65 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f90…4c92backed TEAM VISION | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.65 | 141 | 36.9%52 W · 89 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed TEAM VISION | 23c | 116.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.36 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x821f…4774backed Team Spirit | 67c | 105$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.35 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aff…b136backed TEAM VISION | 32c | 104.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.15 | 324 | 45.1%146 W · 178 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked Team Spirit | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed TEAM VISION | 35c | 96.03$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.63 | 84 | 45.2%38 W · 46 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59e2…1c55backed TEAM VISION | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 475 | 48%228 W · 247 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a91…3eb7backed Team Spirit | 53c | 75.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…57bbbacked TEAM VISION | 57c | 75$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 418 | 64.1%268 W · 150 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0718…a164backed TEAM VISION | 36c | 69.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +180.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed TEAM VISION | 33c | 66.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked TEAM VISION | 53c | 65.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Team Spirit | 51c | 58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Team Spirit | 67c | 54.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed TEAM VISION | 33c | 50.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.46 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…33dabacked TEAM VISION | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb3…ca8bbacked TEAM VISION | 36c | 41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4c…f414backed Team Spirit | 67c | 36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -5.1wins | -0.18per pick | 66cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x70a0…2dc3backed Team Spirit | 29c | 34.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…f04ebacked TEAM VISION | 71c | 33.93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f96…9ecebacked Team Spirit | 67c | 30.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe666…6aa4backed Team Spirit | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc90f…4d0abacked TEAM VISION | 55c | 27.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Team Spirit (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Group StageTEAM VISION won
- Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 1 WinnerTEAM VISION won
- Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 2 WinnerTEAM VISION won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game 2: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.