Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35ebb5ffeae11d5ed14fd27e614dbf12309a41c835be2c1104820d90cd049d5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,011
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,367
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,011 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 50c | 1,227$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.94 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | +11.5wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Under | 49c | 665.39$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.45 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…bb2fbacked Over | 50c | 575.11$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Under | 68c | 473.86$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.26 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…70e3backed Under | 50c | 421.37$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.69 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +8.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked Over | 53c | 373.96$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 50c | 349.72$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.36 | 170 | 40.6%69 W · 101 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 47c | 311.04$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.21 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3743…7bc1backed Over | 50c | 282.96$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.48 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Under | 50c | 270$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Under | 50c | 263.37$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.69 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf07b…def2backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cec…91cdbacked Over | 50c | 177.9$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.95 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a85…4612backed Over | 45c | 176.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.86 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Over | 34c | 147.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 222 | 40.1%89 W · 133 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Under | 50c | 134$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 43c | 116$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Over | 38c | 105.43$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4bc…4347backed Over | 47c | 105$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +6.8wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Over | 36c | 100.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdd…e70ebacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Under | 63c | 92.75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.23 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 18c | 86.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 50c | 82.96$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 84 | 45.2%38 W · 46 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc88…66e3backed Over | 50c | 79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf49…5c3abacked Over | 50c | 78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc1…3f1cbacked Under | 53c | 76.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc3…f923backed Under | 51c | 68.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc800…4117backed Under | 62c | 62.71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 90 | 42.2%38 W · 52 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf25…6f2cbacked Over | 52c | 55.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf20…3b9ebacked Under | 65c | 46.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Over | 28c | 45.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…89babacked Over | 39c | 44.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x821f…4774backed Under | 51c | 42.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb3…ca8bbacked Under | 52c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd3…226ebacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 213 | 28.2%60 W · 153 L | -16.0wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…f04ebacked Under | 74c | 35.15$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Under | 50c | 33.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…54c0backed Under | 55c | 31.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x648b…ca4dbacked Over | 53c | 30.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00e1…489cbacked Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef7a…e99dbacked Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e5…8e79backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e85…9b0bbacked Over | 52c | 29.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab3…862abacked Over | 53c | 28.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 69c | 27.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcffc…8e8abacked Over | 55c | 24.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…362bbacked Under | 61c | 23.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 240 | 34.2%82 W · 158 L | -17.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e59…2a66backed Under | 68c | 23.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3546…1a58backed Over | 45c | 22.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70a0…2dc3backed Over | 45c | 22.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…eb72backed Under | 51c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e55…8ffdbacked Over | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…a89abacked Under | 60c | 20.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc850…092dbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…41f5backed Under | 58c | 17.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Group StageTEAM VISION won
- Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 1 WinnerTEAM VISION won
- Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 2 WinnerTEAM VISION won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game 2: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Team Spirit (+1.5)TEAM VISION won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.