TailMyPicks
Market

MLB · resolved market

Athletics vs. New York Yankees

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Athleticsof Athletics, New York Yankees
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,028,835
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,043,919

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,028,835 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 513 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x63a5…8e33backed Athletics38c281,742$105,865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175,877.686445.3%29 W · 35 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+0.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Athletics36c165,890$59,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106,339.1523948.5%116 W · 123 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b3f…3446backed New York Yankees64c156,249$99,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99,999.42742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick60cpaid-36.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed New York Yankees62c119,601$73,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73,650.7331039%121 W · 189 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed New York Yankees63c83,207$52,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52,288.282748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked New York Yankees63c48,228$30,383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,383.296357.1%36 W · 27 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc807…c12bbacked Athletics36c29,999$10,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,199.2650553.5%270 W · 235 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Athletics35c25,616$8,876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,740.081,04150.1%522 W · 519 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1a2…14b8backed New York Yankees64c21,950$14,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,047.8818241.2%75 W · 107 L-9.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-16.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Athletics40c17,918$7,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,738.641,68150.1%842 W · 839 L-22.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Athletics35c17,058$6,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,005.631,52751.1%780 W · 747 L+7.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed New York Yankees47c16,585$7,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,805.3310,97951.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L+139.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked New York Yankees58c13,203$7,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,690.3421656.5%122 W · 94 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4219…7855backed New York Yankees67c13,196$8,821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,820.96650%3 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed New York Yankees60c12,537$7,527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,526.752,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3625…1187backed New York Yankees67c11,746$7,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,840.437953.6%203 W · 176 L+18.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Athletics37c10,619$3,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,674.7754152.1%282 W · 259 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked New York Yankees66c10,000$6,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,55055053.6%295 W · 255 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Athletics36c9,634$3,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,191.0431149.2%153 W · 158 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked New York Yankees48c9,432$4,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,501.438,19246.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L+38.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa4f5…1079backed New York Yankees39c9,398$3,705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,705.031050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c25…c3bebacked New York Yankees65c9,000$5,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,8507349.3%36 W · 37 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed New York Yankees46c8,212$3,793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,793.29,81946.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed New York Yankees64c7,800$4,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,9923145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked New York Yankees58c7,372$4,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,266.8118156.4%102 W · 79 L+11.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfc03…1548backed Athletics36c7,260$2,614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,646.673324.2%8 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick24cpaid-28.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked New York Yankees68c7,227$4,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,903.564047.5%19 W · 21 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-17%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe262…ac17backed New York Yankees64c6,884$4,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,405.56757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91ad…a5cabacked New York Yankees64c6,645$4,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,252.675139.2%20 W · 31 L-5.1wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8f2e…caf6backed Athletics33c6,364$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,263.595350.9%27 W · 26 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd41a…fd60backed New York Yankees64c6,115$3,914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,913.6580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+34.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed New York Yankees56c6,000$3,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,39021842.7%93 W · 125 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6498…8910backed New York Yankees64c5,822$3,726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,725.8451756.5%292 W · 225 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7f1…d867backed Athletics34c5,764$1,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,804.22860.7%17 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+11.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed New York Yankees63c5,214$3,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,2853,50951%1,789 W · 1,720 L+53.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked New York Yankees46c5,043$2,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,322.621,35549.8%675 W · 680 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Athletics35c5,000$1,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,2601,29347.3%611 W · 682 L-18.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked New York Yankees63c4,878$3,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,088.1365050.3%327 W · 323 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed New York Yankees64c4,848$3,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,119.021,26951.1%648 W · 621 L+23.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c8c…dc9ebacked Athletics62c4,421$2,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,684.51250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47bc…9504backed Athletics34c4,415$1,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,913.866653%35 W · 31 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+16.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked New York Yankees36c4,177$1,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,488.151,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e3…f4a0backed New York Yankees67c4,000$2,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,669.98366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+22.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Athletics34c3,595$1,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,366.2867849.3%334 W · 344 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed New York Yankees63c3,281$2,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,058.871,58648.5%770 W · 816 L-2.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed New York Yankees65c3,249$2,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,095.7127751.6%143 W · 134 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed New York Yankees53c3,224$1,699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,698.7612,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Athletics69c3,005$2,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921.42250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed New York Yankees61c2,930$1,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,787.1819053.7%102 W · 88 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4285…cfb5backed New York Yankees64c2,721$1,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,741.5516547.3%78 W · 87 L-10.3wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Athletics36c2,650$954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,695.9932451.9%168 W · 156 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed New York Yankees44c2,607$1,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,159.041,52059.1%899 W · 621 L+78.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd154…9c74backed New York Yankees30c2,589$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.3215740.1%63 W · 94 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf393…9b65backed New York Yankees65c2,463$1,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,601.141361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick42cpaid+26.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa2e9…a86ebacked New York Yankees68c2,462$1,674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,674.262450%12 W · 12 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-16.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked New York Yankees62c2,371$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,470.021,53848.6%747 W · 791 L-5.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39eb…0e4cbacked Athletics37c2,211$818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,392.857350.7%37 W · 36 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5954…7d41backed Athletics37c2,149$789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,360.231250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc50f…3ad3backed Athletics34c2,090$711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,379.2913254.5%72 W · 60 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc199…a956backed New York Yankees65c2,061$1,339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,339.341323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.2wins-0.24per pick48cpaid-49.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x116c…e162backed New York Yankees64c2,045$1,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,314.2136649.2%180 W · 186 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4595…df87backed New York Yankees63c2,000$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2501040%4 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-25.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed Athletics33c2,000$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,339.998552.9%45 W · 40 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked New York Yankees65c1,963$1,278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,277.651,87452%975 W · 899 L+51.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa27e…1732backed New York Yankees68c1,856$1,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,261.92450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4849…763bbacked Athletics53c1,811$955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$856.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+89.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1f0…3d5fbacked New York Yankees1c1,802$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf402…df7cbacked Athletics61c1,787$1,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$696.87850%4 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f8d…6790backed New York Yankees63c1,764$1,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,119.192365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+16%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a88…41ccbacked Athletics38c1,732$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,067.4738148.6%185 W · 196 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed New York Yankees58c1,592$922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9222,14950.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L+28.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e16…b78abacked New York Yankees66c1,557$1,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,027.511457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f2e…9d0bbacked Athletics37c1,553$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$978.096662.1%41 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7372…6ce4backed Athletics37c1,542$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$971.722100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+127.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9348…8cfbbacked New York Yankees64c1,515$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$969.696243.5%27 W · 35 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-20.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed New York Yankees64c1,478$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.7270735.1%248 W · 459 L-31.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a94…822cbacked New York Yankees67c1,478$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9905752.6%30 W · 27 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d87…8dbbbacked New York Yankees41c1,341$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.5512745.7%58 W · 69 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed New York Yankees33c1,271$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.991,11349%545 W · 568 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked New York Yankees64c1,251$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.7226056.5%147 W · 113 L+13.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed New York Yankees66c1,191$781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780.961,10648.7%539 W · 567 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacbe…85d4backed New York Yankees41c1,158$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.5822849.1%112 W · 116 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe235…aba2backed New York Yankees33c1,150$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.622466.7%16 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c9d…8715backed New York Yankees48c1,139$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.122544%11 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed New York Yankees66c1,125$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739.9239351.9%204 W · 189 L+1.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60fe…f286backed Athletics35c1,113$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$727.6316453%87 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd961…35debacked New York Yankees58c1,100$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6431258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+17.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x70db…f73fbacked Athletics35c1,084$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.2810842.6%46 W · 62 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6b0…fdbcbacked New York Yankees66c1,069$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.66520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.35per pick55cpaid-62.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb75…c9b5backed Athletics37c1,049$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.821850%9 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7106…1caabacked Athletics33c1,018$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.043959%23 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x448d…3adebacked Athletics34c1,010$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.61675%12 W · 4 L+4.2wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+59%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed New York Yankees62c1,000$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6201,30150.2%653 W · 648 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf003…0a0cbacked New York Yankees63c1,000$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-21.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f1…d942backed New York Yankees63c1,000$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-34.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d45…97f4backed Athletics36c1,000$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+66.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b58…8692backed Athletics35c1,000$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Athletics78c999.99$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2206440.6%26 W · 38 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-20.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5f6…a659backed Athletics35c990$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.514261.3%87 W · 55 L+18.0wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+24.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed New York Yankees66c988.92$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.851,04349%511 W · 532 L+3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.