TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xd6f1…d942

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
89
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: Middle East, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 56 out of 100; worst Commodities at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+38.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$320Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+60.6%+$193.98
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$382Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+54.5%+$208.08
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$141.75
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.07
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$159Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+104.8%+$166.31
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$562Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+218%+$1,225.03
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+53.8%+$76.65
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$283Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+69.5%+$196.39
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$127.02
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$225Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+115.7%+$260.71
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$283Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$282.59
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$268Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$268.41
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$422Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$421.5
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$197Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+284.6%+$559.44
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$2,629Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+152.9%+$4,019.12
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$926Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+96.1%+$889.35
All 16 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT1145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-24.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$973Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+43.1%+$419.01
76ers vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$760Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$240
Jazz vs. Thunder: O/U 239.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$480Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$480
Hornets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$380Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$380
Spurs vs. Nuggetsbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$92.5
Timberwolves vs. 76ersbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$27
Spurs vs. Clippersbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$40
Suns vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$26
Timberwolves vs. Pistonsbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
Celtics vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.5
Cavaliers vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$22.5
All 11 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick47cpaid+45.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 11, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-34.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick49cpaid-62.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Commodities — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-23.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-68.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Movies — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 11, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hurricanes vs. Utahbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$470Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$530
Predators vs. Utahbacked Predators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$380Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$380
Blackhawks vs. Sharksbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
All 3 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 11, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Apr 11, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-50.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Serie A — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Tweets — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid+38.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$65.28
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$280
All 2 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Cricket — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Royal Challengers Bangalorebacked Royal Challengers Bangalore · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$510Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$510
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Punjab Kingsbacked Punjab Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$15.5
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$201Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+59.2%+$118.93
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.