TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,144,739
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,003,727

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,144,739 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 819 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4db9…8339backed Yes7c124,927$8,807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,807.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56c9…afe7backed Yes16c94,799$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,0001233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x000d…758ebacked Yes32c75,777$23,898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,898.382152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac34…2c89backed Yes21c69,232$14,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,644.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes30c52,191$15,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,854.993026.7%8 W · 22 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-45.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8b9…b836backed Yes21c45,366$9,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,519.237749.4%38 W · 39 L+9.3wins+0.12per pick37cpaid+34.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes20c37,565$7,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,545.081936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0009…1d43backed Yes30c30,310$9,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,092.91560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d33…1272backed Yes0c28,706$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5462…eed6backed No72c28,262$20,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,958.53683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick57cpaid+38.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5009…ca47backed Yes3c27,614$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes22c26,754$5,838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,837.625328.3%15 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-32.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes22c23,013$5,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,044.245545.5%25 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes31c21,330$6,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,714.455234.6%18 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f5a…c5febacked Yes1c19,460$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-53.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2568…3816backed Yes0c16,839$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed No75c16,476$12,309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,167.055145.1%23 W · 28 L+6.8wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+103%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd64e…5516backed No68c15,770$10,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,023.131241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed No67c15,600$10,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,1545841.4%24 W · 34 L+6.1wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+20%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ec3…f757backed Yes12c15,000$1,782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,782.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x31b6…2d92backed Yes32c15,000$4,868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,867.65714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick29cpaid-72%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc03…804cbacked No73c14,472$10,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,878.071030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-42.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc658…b784backed Yes26c13,883$3,576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,576.342045%9 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Yes3c13,243$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.2450%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc554…00adbacked Yes36c12,699$4,589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,588.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7b5…fa78backed Yes12c12,055$1,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,425.4728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-52.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc65b…bbf3backed Yes35c11,371$3,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,927.63540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-40.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0a…8c6cbacked Yes33c11,000$3,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,63010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74aa…2870backed No80c11,000$8,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2001100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49dd…2a32backed Yes17c10,680$1,782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,781.99742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-23.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae8c…93cdbacked Yes2c10,662$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf70…5e92backed Yes32c10,000$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,20040%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd9a6…c80fbacked Yes0c10,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Yes29c10,000$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,899.99850%4 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-34.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d65…3781backed Yes5c9,990$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.453138.7%12 W · 19 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick31cpaid-23.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes31c9,899$3,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,036.733020%6 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-41.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Yes8c9,656$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b24…2605backed Yes21c9,524$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes32c9,092$2,916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,915.8915150.3%76 W · 75 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes19c8,945$1,705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,704.521020%2 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-37.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15f7…a018backed Yes21c8,518$1,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,808.88944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf17…97d1backed Yes31c8,362$2,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,624.07650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41ea…7a3dbacked Yes32c8,229$2,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,602.473043.3%13 W · 17 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+39.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe899…0899backed No69c7,868$5,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,444.62250%11 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-16.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes32c7,500$2,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,369.99742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-41.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25a4…2694backed Yes33c7,248$2,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,412.63250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-37.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked Yes3c7,172$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.627639.5%30 W · 46 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-24.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes27c7,000$1,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,904.984425%11 W · 33 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-48.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7804…7025backed Yes17c6,516$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,089.752420.8%5 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-65.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed No76c6,345$4,843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,501.693951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed11…10bebacked Yes32c6,319$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-73.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb8e…b243backed Yes25c6,307$1,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,560.78366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+22.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes31c6,158$1,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,917.77731.2%24 W · 53 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-47.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes29c5,900$1,719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,718.9731434.1%107 W · 207 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbae…13f8backed Yes28c5,738$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,599.56100%0 W · 10 L-3.5wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x79ed…0de6backed Yes23c5,648$1,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,307.5560%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc978…aa84backed Yes34c5,616$1,909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,909.3320%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc0bf…2032backed No72c5,441$3,943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,497.8540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f9…fd79backed No68c5,419$3,658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,760.74366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x108b…ecdabacked Yes18c5,385$957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$956.5920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0591…fb4abacked Yes1c5,322$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-37.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e38…a1dbbacked Yes29c5,208$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-19.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee28…8266backed Yes3c5,100$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd71…215dbacked Yes36c5,067$1,801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,800.7520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Yes40c5,014$2,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0301936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-28.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Yes9c5,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fec…c965backed Yes30c5,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001250%6 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+61.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes14c5,000$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7102729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8f6…1905backed Yes12c4,831$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.77540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-41.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bd8…12dfbacked Yes32c4,688$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-33%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd3c…0035backed Yes15c4,663$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked No78c4,290$3,339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$950.444729.8%14 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-37.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc624…ee24backed Yes35c4,108$1,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,437.436355.6%35 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes26c4,056$1,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,056.372114.3%3 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-69.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes32c4,017$1,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,285.561250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x90a0…7e0abacked No68c4,000$2,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,289.751546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe67b…3ec6backed Yes7c3,845$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb51…359dbacked Yes31c3,787$1,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,181.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid+36.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked No79c3,755$2,966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$788.462638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x57c5…07aabacked Yes8c3,729$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.354242.9%18 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6497…4b86backed Yes29c3,715$1,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,091333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30a7…02fabacked Yes1c3,711$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bbe…1559backed Yes20c3,689$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.7370%0 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes32c3,570$1,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,147.5616833.3%56 W · 112 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed Yes33c3,497$1,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,138.8810740.2%43 W · 64 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+52.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5553…6d2ebacked Yes31c3,400$1,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,055.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b36…acebbacked Yes1c3,385$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.02616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-66.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ed6…6a8dbacked Yes31c3,350$1,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,028.15128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick23cpaid-76.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes19c3,146$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.696322.2%14 W · 49 L+0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid-38.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed No71c3,064$2,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$888.616152.5%32 W · 29 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+11.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes25c3,064$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.62040%8 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe59f…2c73backed Yes15c3,015$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…aecebacked Yes31c3,000$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$930650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+103%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes27c2,990$812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812.4534333.5%115 W · 228 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cf8…042fbacked Yes31c2,944$909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909.253138.7%12 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+54%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x44c2…7a21backed Yes32c2,944$956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x194a…0f76backed Yes4c2,823$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.47per pick20cpaid+554%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes37c2,815$1,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,035.7121161.1%129 W · 82 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd640…01f3backed Yes31c2,667$831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$830.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.