Us Midterms · resolved market
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x301357b52de467d3f71833deb600bc43346aeafe09b7c473a82f436699b459da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,532,610
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,273,897
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,532,610 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked No | 31c | 149,855$45,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45,786.83 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac34…2c89backed No | 5c | 142,953$7,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,778.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed No | 21c | 107,117$22,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,709.75 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…5134backed No | 29c | 69,087$20,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,035.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe899…0899backed No | 1c | 63,843$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.86 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed No | 24c | 56,210$13,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,558.4 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed No | 2c | 37,303$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.29 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 69c | 33,174$22,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,241.05 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 0c | 31,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 55 | 1.8%1 W · 54 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 25c | 30,879$7,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,581.91 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc03…804cbacked Yes | 73c | 26,219$19,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,027.35 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x872e…5ef3backed Yes | 71c | 25,343$17,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,349.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5a…c5febacked No | 0c | 23,690$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 2c | 22,454$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.44 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 76c | 22,088$16,746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,341.88 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9645…82efbacked Yes | 71c | 21,958$15,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,367.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7243…09a6backed Yes | 71c | 21,786$15,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,317.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5d…cc80backed No | 24c | 20,635$4,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,929.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09bb…f8b1backed Yes | 72c | 20,527$14,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,758.04 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0d…e7a5backed Yes | 79c | 18,987$15,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,987.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed No | 30c | 18,657$5,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,575.19 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.27per pick | 38cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc01f…cd8ebacked Yes | 66c | 18,053$12,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,053.31 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 79c | 17,943$14,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,735.75 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…7b65backed Yes | 77c | 17,532$13,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,084.02 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 67c | 16,650$11,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,416.06 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 33c | 15,938$5,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,260.6 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73bb…9473backed Yes | 78c | 15,000$11,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,320.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd64e…5516backed Yes | 67c | 14,000$9,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,620 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5462…eed6backed Yes | 75c | 13,000$9,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,260 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7e…097abacked Yes | 78c | 12,845$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,844.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked No | 1c | 12,196$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…ac7dbacked Yes | 78c | 11,471$8,958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,512.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc990…6a32backed Yes | 64c | 11,373$7,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,044.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked No | 9c | 11,111$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 76c | 10,511$8,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500.82 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 76c | 10,171$7,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,470.62 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf70…5e92backed No | 32c | 10,000$3,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,199.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 6c | 9,966$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.68 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d65…3781backed No | 1c | 9,900$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 22c | 9,752$2,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,119.29 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed No | 12c | 9,600$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,139.97 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 72c | 9,514$6,814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,699.57 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +103%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked Yes | 62c | 9,000$5,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,430 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15f7…a018backed Yes | 78c | 8,518$6,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,902.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c65…4f24backed Yes | 79c | 8,053$6,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,692.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7804…7025backed Yes | 76c | 7,976$6,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,947.99 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc65b…bbf3backed Yes | 73c | 7,941$5,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,157.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 30c | 7,174$2,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,153.06 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff4…a15bbacked Yes | 77c | 7,155$5,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,657.45 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b64…707bbacked No | 0c | 7,060$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed Yes | 73c | 7,000$5,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,916.58 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41ea…7a3dbacked No | 35c | 7,000$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,449.99 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a1…6877backed Yes | 80c | 6,250$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,249.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed No | 4c | 6,122$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.88 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb1…fb84backed Yes | 71c | 5,758$4,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,681.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x326e…999ebacked Yes | 76c | 5,694$4,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,349.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 11c | 5,500$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.33 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92e5…efeebacked No | 10c | 5,130$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.99 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a13…4593backed Yes | 71c | 5,120$3,644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,476.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2202backed Yes | 72c | 5,100$3,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Yes | 73c | 5,067$3,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,352.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x894e…edfcbacked No | 11c | 5,013$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…31abbacked Yes | 80c | 5,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbae…13f8backed No | 10c | 4,970$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 72c | 4,954$3,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,379.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 28c | 4,900$1,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,357.02 | 314 | 34.1%107 W · 207 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 19c | 4,831$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.55 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a88…b859backed Yes | 74c | 4,731$3,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,243.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1c…efafbacked No | 23c | 4,561$1,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071.79 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -6.6wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x32f1…2a67backed No | 10c | 4,420$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd5…9f12backed No | 21c | 4,256$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 30c | 4,115$1,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,217.02 | 133 | 17.3%23 W · 110 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31b7…f8a3backed Yes | 77c | 4,096$3,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd662…b0d7backed Yes | 77c | 4,060$3,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$933.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 80c | 4,000$3,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be5…c1b3backed Yes | 67c | 4,000$2,699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,301 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…4e4cbacked Yes | 77c | 3,970$3,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e96…c158backed Yes | 77c | 3,842$2,958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d7…9db4backed Yes | 79c | 3,798$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.65 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec8f…94d5backed No | 16c | 3,736$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce5…9ce1backed Yes | 67c | 3,717$2,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,219.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f07…9d0fbacked Yes | 75c | 3,454$2,591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3458…b5a7backed Yes | 72c | 3,387$2,453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$933.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 77c | 3,333$2,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.26 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc497…48cfbacked Yes | 67c | 3,331$2,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 72c | 3,290$2,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.05 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed No | 25c | 3,197$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.69 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9e…a250backed Yes | 68c | 3,121$2,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 68c | 3,083$2,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996.73 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 72c | 3,016$2,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.18 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes | 66c | 3,009$1,988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020.56 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01da…ea89backed No | 26c | 3,000$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb209…2639backed Yes | 69c | 3,000$2,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 68c | 3,000$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf67…374ebacked Yes | 75c | 2,848$2,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 76c | 2,833$2,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.86 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bd17backed Yes | 71c | 2,830$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.55 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed Yes | 70c | 2,822$1,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.38 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +5.9wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked No | 35c | 2,712$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b15…e32dbacked Yes | 76c | 2,700$2,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?this page
- Will Beto O'Rourke be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?No won
- Will Colin Allred be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?No won
- Will Emily Morgul be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?No won
- Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?No won
- Will Michael Swanson be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.