TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,532,610
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,273,897

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,532,610 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xde7b…5f4bbacked No31c149,855$45,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,786.833026.7%8 W · 22 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-45.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xac34…2c89backed No5c142,953$7,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,778.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed No21c107,117$22,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,709.751936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7462…5134backed No29c69,087$20,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,035.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe899…0899backed No1c63,843$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.862250%11 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-16.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc658…b784backed No24c56,210$13,558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,558.42045%9 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b9…b836backed No2c37,303$879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.297749.4%38 W · 39 L+9.3wins+0.12per pick37cpaid+34.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes69c33,174$22,932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,241.055545.5%25 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No0c31,000$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31551.8%1 W · 54 L-0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid-85.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed No25c30,879$7,582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,581.915328.3%15 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-32.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc03…804cbacked Yes73c26,219$19,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,027.351030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-42.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x872e…5ef3backed Yes71c25,343$17,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,349.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f5a…c5febacked No0c23,690$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-53.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed No2c22,454$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.446132.8%20 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-25.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed Yes76c22,088$16,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,341.882646.2%12 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9645…82efbacked Yes71c21,958$15,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,367.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7243…09a6backed Yes71c21,786$15,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,317.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5d…cc80backed No24c20,635$4,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,929.7440%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09bb…f8b1backed Yes72c20,527$14,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,758.043145.2%14 W · 17 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-37.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe0d…e7a5backed Yes79c18,987$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,987.34450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-36.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed No30c18,657$5,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,575.191464.3%9 W · 5 L+3.7wins+0.27per pick38cpaid+70.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc01f…cd8ebacked Yes66c18,053$12,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,053.316030%18 W · 42 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-39.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Yes79c17,943$14,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,735.751533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-48.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x72a2…7b65backed Yes77c17,532$13,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,084.021566.7%10 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes67c16,650$11,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,416.065841.4%24 W · 34 L+6.1wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+20%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No33c15,938$5,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,260.615150.3%76 W · 75 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73bb…9473backed Yes78c15,000$11,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,320.39425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-67.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd64e…5516backed Yes67c14,000$9,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,6201241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5462…eed6backed Yes75c13,000$9,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,260683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick57cpaid+38.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4f7e…097abacked Yes78c12,845$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,844.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30a7…02fabacked No1c12,196$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.9820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c66…ac7dbacked Yes78c11,471$8,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,512.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc990…6a32backed Yes64c11,373$7,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,044.86540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-37.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15a6…bf5dbacked No9c11,111$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes76c10,511$8,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,500.821060%6 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick48cpaid-13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes76c10,171$7,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,470.624729.8%14 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-37.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf70…5e92backed No32c10,000$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,199.9440%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked No6c9,966$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.687639.5%30 W · 46 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-24.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d65…3781backed No1c9,900$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993138.7%12 W · 19 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick31cpaid-23.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No22c9,752$2,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,119.291020%2 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-37.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bb2…a656backed No12c9,600$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,139.972623.1%6 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick29cpaid+62.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes72c9,514$6,814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,699.575145.1%23 W · 28 L+6.8wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+103%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x357e…2a0cbacked Yes62c9,000$5,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,4301952.6%10 W · 9 L+3.4wins+0.18per pick35cpaid+88.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x15f7…a018backed Yes78c8,518$6,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,902.4944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c65…4f24backed Yes79c8,053$6,361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,692.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7804…7025backed Yes76c7,976$6,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,947.992420.8%5 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-65.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc65b…bbf3backed Yes73c7,941$5,784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,157.08540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-40.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No30c7,174$2,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,153.067731.2%24 W · 53 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-47.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ff4…a15bbacked Yes77c7,155$5,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,657.453100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b64…707bbacked No0c7,060$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49d1…7b96backed Yes73c7,000$5,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,916.583357.6%19 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x41ea…7a3dbacked No35c7,000$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,449.993043.3%13 W · 17 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+39.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc5a1…6877backed Yes80c6,250$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,249.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb6f…25f0backed No4c6,122$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.882147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-22.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fb1…fb84backed Yes71c5,758$4,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,681.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x326e…999ebacked Yes76c5,694$4,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,349.253100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+66.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked No11c5,500$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.332927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92e5…efeebacked No10c5,130$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.992630.8%8 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-35.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a13…4593backed Yes71c5,120$3,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,476.7425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-64.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6640…2202backed Yes72c5,100$3,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4402166.7%14 W · 7 L+3.0wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+26.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdf17…97d1backed Yes73c5,067$3,715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,352.08650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x894e…edfcbacked No11c5,013$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682d…31abbacked Yes80c5,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0001100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbae…13f8backed No10c4,970$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497100%0 W · 10 L-3.5wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes72c4,954$3,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,379.45650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-33%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No28c4,900$1,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,357.0231434.1%107 W · 207 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No19c4,831$928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$927.554245.2%19 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a88…b859backed Yes74c4,731$3,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,243.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a1c…efafbacked No23c4,561$1,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,071.794238.1%16 W · 26 L-6.6wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-43.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x32f1…2a67backed No10c4,420$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cd5…9f12backed No21c4,256$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+38.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No30c4,115$1,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,217.0213317.3%23 W · 110 L-10.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x31b7…f8a3backed Yes77c4,096$3,154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$942.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd662…b0d7backed Yes77c4,060$3,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$933.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x162f…798dbacked Yes80c4,000$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8002100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+47.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4be5…c1b3backed Yes67c4,000$2,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3011283.3%10 W · 2 L+3.2wins+0.27per pick56cpaid+37.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6e5c…4e4cbacked Yes77c3,970$3,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$913.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e96…c158backed Yes77c3,842$2,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$883.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6d7…9db4backed Yes79c3,798$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$797.65683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec8f…94d5backed No16c3,736$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ce5…9ce1backed Yes67c3,717$2,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,219.792100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f07…9d0fbacked Yes75c3,454$2,591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$863.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3458…b5a7backed Yes72c3,387$2,453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$933.63520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-72.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes77c3,333$2,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$758.262638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc497…48cfbacked Yes67c3,331$2,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,100.88425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-62.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes72c3,290$2,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$927.053145.2%14 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed No25c3,197$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791.693951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf9e…a250backed Yes68c3,121$2,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$998.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes68c3,083$2,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$996.7324433.2%81 W · 163 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes72c3,016$2,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$855.182729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes66c3,009$1,988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,020.561457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick48cpaid-17.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01da…ea89backed No26c3,000$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$765742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+13.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb209…2639backed Yes69c3,000$2,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9301100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes68c3,000$2,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9602240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+74.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf67…374ebacked Yes75c2,848$2,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721.18666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+26.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes76c2,833$2,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.8634333.5%115 W · 228 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb14…bd17backed Yes71c2,830$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$829.552245.5%10 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-28%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x944e…8c94backed Yes70c2,822$1,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843.383066.7%20 W · 10 L+5.9wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+40.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked No35c2,712$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b15…e32dbacked Yes76c2,700$2,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6472100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.