TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,467,770
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,305,358

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,467,770 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,716 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xca76…28b3backed Yes33c611,185$201,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,786.65933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed No68c152,142$103,789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,352.688640.7%35 W · 51 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5c2…2ab0backed No72c99,907$71,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,912.043100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x868b…86a9backed Yes20c93,222$18,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,787.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea45…284cbacked No70c79,300$55,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,813.543100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1220…3490backed Yes33c75,411$24,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,910.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf4c…57b9backed Yes26c74,924$19,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,26920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93bf…451cbacked Yes32c70,785$22,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,93060%0 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xddae…33ccbacked Yes36c63,502$22,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,860.72250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7664…2e50backed No64c61,086$38,838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,248.463234.4%11 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5658…8640backed Yes19c60,961$11,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,366.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e7d…815bbacked Yes36c56,619$20,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,389.910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x34a7…17febacked Yes32c56,333$17,756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,756.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked No66c56,271$37,211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,060.2143243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes20c53,946$10,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,747.9618530.3%56 W · 129 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-50.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda7f…2425backed Yes30c53,142$15,756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,756.221816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-59.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56e9…b34cbacked Yes32c51,115$16,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,533.32250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+39.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce1d…1b9bbacked Yes26c51,000$13,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,195.11450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa156…014cbacked Yes35c50,201$17,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,570.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94c4…43cabacked No80c46,042$36,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,377.311266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x85e9…3cb1backed Yes22c44,373$9,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,55280%0 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90b5…01b6backed Yes23c44,365$10,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,398.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3006…e9f4backed No72c39,142$28,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,111.573100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd39…109dbacked No80c37,210$29,641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,568.896100%6 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+55.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5462…eed6backed No68c35,864$24,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,471.221947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed No68c35,138$23,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,344.222060%12 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e78…ea77backed Yes30c34,746$10,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,369.964839.6%19 W · 29 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa97…029dbacked No64c32,657$20,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,756.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f88…4184backed Yes20c31,578$6,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,194.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0295…b460backed Yes23c31,365$7,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,114.32333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-56.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf90c…e5a3backed No64c30,882$19,764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,117.52250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfe3…73c4backed No69c30,100$20,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,430.992552%13 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-16.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21b8…6df2backed Yes16c29,620$4,854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,85410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7572…ab0fbacked Yes22c28,825$6,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,324.5850%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b25…c471backed Yes25c28,252$7,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,08520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06be…8615backed Yes31c28,000$8,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,679.9970%0 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0349…66fcbacked No65c27,480$17,862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,6181100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d5a…a105backed Yes19c27,467$5,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,221.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa093…a53bbacked Yes31c27,128$8,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,507.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36da…8218backed Yes6c27,000$1,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,549.991323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ec9…75c7backed Yes34c23,914$8,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,130.71616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-75.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9d7…2e49backed Yes38c22,620$8,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,603.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7408…db0dbacked Yes13c22,555$2,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,993.99520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick11cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b28…b31fbacked No65c22,550$14,658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,892.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e73…c4ecbacked No78c22,234$17,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,909.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd368…d311backed Yes1c22,009$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.0440%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f6c…6909backed No73c21,834$15,987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,847.56580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+16%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb479…d049backed Yes21c21,530$4,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,576.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked No74c21,337$15,865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,472.217761%47 W · 30 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ca4…2f1bbacked Yes4c21,133$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8454…331abacked No75c20,344$15,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,051.521650%8 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d40…ec52backed Yes29c20,000$5,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,8002433.3%8 W · 16 L-3.5wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-44.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked No66c20,000$13,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,699.992356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0075…850ebacked Yes33c19,920$6,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,585.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d0a…07c7backed No70c19,842$13,861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,981.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes0c19,200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60892.2%2 W · 87 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-80.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe81…9e12backed Yes36c17,795$6,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,463.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b4b…2e3dbacked Yes19c16,861$3,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,192.130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…2202backed No71c16,753$11,835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,918.698456%47 W · 37 L+9.4wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+24.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xac33…f3dbbacked Yes26c16,666$4,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,25110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36ed…3bc2backed Yes34c16,614$5,707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,707.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x922f…a1a8backed Yes29c16,405$4,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,746.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f27…a5a2backed No67c16,400$10,988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,4121100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d2e…79c6backed Yes33c16,102$5,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,384.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes25c15,999$4,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,079.7111853.4%63 W · 55 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53d6…b6e8backed No67c15,500$10,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,147.871353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd026…16b3backed Yes26c15,466$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5063…773dbacked No75c15,371$11,567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,804.182100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe51c…7829backed Yes0c15,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc583…bd46backed No71c14,326$10,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,191.482100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x095d…52cfbacked No77c14,199$10,898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,301.59837.5%3 W · 5 L-2.5wins-0.32per pick69cpaid-48.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2e83…ea14backed Yes28c13,789$3,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,835.4330%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4985…28bdbacked Yes24c13,685$3,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,284.391127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-22.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51ba…3ca5backed No67c13,677$9,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,445.38785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick65cpaid+23.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x39fd…136cbacked Yes15c13,646$2,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,052.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e93…f5bebacked Yes12c13,548$1,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,643.140%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bdb…73d7backed No70c13,443$9,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,032.865100%5 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xde19…34f6backed Yes20c13,379$2,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,72810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes26c13,000$3,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,335250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-29.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed No72c12,973$9,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,670.823630.6%11 W · 25 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f7f…76f0backed Yes27c12,971$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,50020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ff9…aa24backed Yes1c12,907$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f83…6cd9backed No73c12,889$9,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,473.192871.4%20 W · 8 L+5.0wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+18.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x868d…d089backed Yes26c12,864$3,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,309.9430%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa010…9e2dbacked Yes15c12,830$1,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,91010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes23c12,000$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,800250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-33.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes30c11,838$3,598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,598.054117.1%7 W · 34 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-62.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x06ac…79ecbacked No68c11,800$8,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,751.991136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-46.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7a0…72e1backed Yes26c11,726$3,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,046.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x264c…bacabacked No77c11,457$8,841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,616.161315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-79.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d02…9489backed Yes36c11,008$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00060%0 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x000d…758ebacked No78c11,005$8,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,421.032133.3%7 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick44cpaid+28.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa665…d7d9backed Yes31c10,916$3,438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,437.6470%0 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x6db5…4e19backed Yes22c10,763$2,358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,357.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe410…3dd5backed Yes28c10,651$3,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,010.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6db…aca3backed Yes37c10,614$3,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,93340%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x81e0…aff6backed No76c10,541$8,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,529.763100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No67c10,357$6,888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,468.915650%78 W · 78 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4621…efccbacked Yes21c10,342$2,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,144.133622.2%8 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-35.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbb5…266bbacked Yes1c10,279$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.