TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the Christian Democratic People’s Party (KDNP) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,623,627
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$96,915

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,623,627 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 214 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xff34…bf20backed Yes0c93,508$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fd9…a60fbacked Yes0c84,677$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c37…e646backed Yes0c83,890$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc141…2c71backed Yes0c83,760$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.7620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c3a…0322backed Yes0c81,850$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.8520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d46…09f3backed Yes0c80,030$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9f3…7ccbbacked Yes0c66,260$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ca…2fd9backed Yes0c55,000$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f2f…af8abacked Yes0c52,870$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c64…fa63backed Yes0c50,300$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1f9…432abacked Yes0c44,640$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfafb…6de6backed Yes0c38,000$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64c4…9799backed Yes0c32,769$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.5460%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4ec…2836backed Yes0c32,722$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.4460%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49d2…3838backed Yes0c32,673$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.3560%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5d4…7862backed Yes0c32,624$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.2560%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x689a…ffcfbacked Yes0c32,575$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.5760%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c29,254$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.254440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7ca…6d10backed Yes0c27,660$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85e2…7e37backed Yes0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc75f…a3cfbacked Yes0c19,500$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3960%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2f1…0483backed Yes0c19,323$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6560%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9bb…ac8ebacked Yes0c19,000$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3860%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebbf…01b1backed Yes0c18,843$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad27…bde4backed Yes0c18,843$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb611…be25backed Yes0c18,843$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaea7…2057backed Yes0c18,843$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x594c…43e9backed Yes0c18,843$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc24b…c1e4backed Yes0c18,843$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x080d…d6afbacked Yes0c18,843$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce41…163cbacked Yes0c18,843$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c14…314abacked Yes0c18,843$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x213b…aae1backed Yes0c18,843$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc8e…682ebacked Yes0c18,843$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f88…6f2ebacked Yes0c18,843$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x190c…3f33backed Yes0c18,832$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6650%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x257f…a582backed Yes0c18,825$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6550%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa233…b85dbacked Yes0c18,825$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6550%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf40…16c1backed Yes0c18,812$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8150%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa173…b296backed Yes0c18,810$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8150%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3001…ac6bbacked Yes0c18,804$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6150%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedad…6c25backed Yes0c18,788$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fb8…180bbacked Yes0c18,788$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb836…9387backed Yes0c18,788$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fdd…9589backed Yes0c18,788$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bff…8d05backed Yes0c18,788$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a1d…dac1backed Yes0c18,788$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2327…aedcbacked Yes0c18,788$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x253e…907fbacked Yes0c18,788$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8349…58acbacked Yes0c18,788$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24e5…ae22backed Yes0c18,788$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4985…0413backed Yes0c18,788$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab7…c9b5backed Yes0c18,788$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x909c…680cbacked Yes0c18,788$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba0c…c5c1backed Yes0c18,788$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf201…c5babacked Yes0c18,788$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76bd…d1e9backed Yes0c18,788$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a66…5410backed Yes0c18,788$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ea2…1893backed Yes0c18,757$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5150%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f8b…1d7dbacked Yes0c18,467$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3960%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22c5…1852backed Yes0c18,467$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9360%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0168…9a67backed Yes0c18,270$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5460%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1525…9e59backed Yes0c18,237$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f6b…5102backed Yes0c18,237$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6250%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1afc…a669backed Yes0c18,236$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8061…c27cbacked Yes0c18,236$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x880c…6007backed Yes0c18,236$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c02…5904backed Yes0c18,236$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd9b…9cfdbacked Yes0c18,236$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76d2…b77abacked Yes0c18,236$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe593…3280backed Yes0c18,236$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x495b…6981backed Yes0c18,236$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdadc…f755backed Yes0c18,236$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e8e…48cabacked Yes0c18,236$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08ca…ea14backed Yes0c18,236$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45e0…adefbacked Yes0c18,236$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d88…c1d1backed Yes0c18,236$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4760%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa05b…6276backed Yes0c18,236$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4760%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0be…9062backed Yes0c18,236$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4760%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6802…81d6backed Yes0c18,236$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4760%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6980…2e61backed Yes0c18,236$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4760%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0387…7a41backed Yes0c18,236$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4760%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde4f…59c0backed Yes0c18,236$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4760%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee8b…75f5backed Yes0c18,236$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4760%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2b7…3c8abacked Yes0c18,236$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4760%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e54…d43abacked Yes0c18,236$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6261…5713backed Yes0c18,236$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40a1…f3f2backed Yes0c18,236$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda46…cfefbacked Yes0c18,236$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef2c…a5a5backed Yes0c18,236$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48e4…6999backed Yes0c18,236$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7ec…59c4backed Yes0c18,236$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4775…7383backed Yes0c18,236$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f3e…9732backed Yes0c18,236$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf94…d0aebacked Yes0c18,236$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a38…b2e7backed Yes0c18,236$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb92d…8933backed Yes0c18,236$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43f0…cda4backed Yes0c18,236$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71e1…8092backed Yes0c18,236$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bed…cd6bbacked Yes0c18,236$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.