TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,606,548
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,626,163

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,606,548 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,445 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9648…6825backed No53c406,892$214,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214,410.3214821.6%32 W · 116 L-24.5wins-0.17per pick38cpaid-61.3%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xac4f…0a27backed No4c212,815$8,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,415.78425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-45.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No51c121,347$62,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62,304.9537740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes43c113,653$49,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64,349.347032.9%23 W · 47 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+26.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b02…4991backed No5c107,933$5,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,862.942917.2%5 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c80…02c3backed No53c88,837$46,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,934.231546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes58c82,617$47,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,863.3564339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No32c73,689$23,719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,719.1951138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1521…f23ebacked Yes50c73,554$36,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,833.513764.9%24 W · 13 L+7.6wins+0.21per pick44cpaid+98.4%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xf0d9…e4eebacked No41c71,000$28,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,869.843053.3%16 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3541…462ebacked No52c66,630$34,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,474.467732.5%25 W · 52 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d3d…1e29backed Yes60c65,008$39,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,984.43250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes48c62,655$29,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,696.561546.7%7 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.23per pick24cpaid+744.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x33e0…7d46backed Yes49c59,181$29,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,144.312642.3%11 W · 15 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-19.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x832f…a3d8backed Yes60c57,678$34,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,790.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+65.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed No1c52,587$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.0510139.6%40 W · 61 L+10.2wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+32.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes49c46,469$22,546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,922.66366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+20.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No6c42,339$2,738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,738.0235819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes59c40,012$23,583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,428.8515232.9%50 W · 102 L+15.8wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+19.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc5ad…b0cfbacked No58c37,055$21,424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,423.661526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.4wins-0.23per pick50cpaid-29.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbd8f…20abbacked Yes42c34,165$14,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,770.13650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa48b…92c1backed Yes57c33,941$19,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,754.22450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes77c31,415$24,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,275.38450%42 W · 42 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf580…7fadbacked No1c29,700$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.62532%8 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0bf…2032backed Yes46c29,554$13,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,954.53475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+60%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd628…43c1backed Yes67c29,511$19,761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,749.622955.2%16 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd08…5ee9backed No56c28,785$16,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,059.371681.3%13 W · 3 L+4.5wins+0.28per pick53cpaid+64.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd576…d5e3backed Yes52c27,793$14,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,468.84337.2%16 W · 27 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-28.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f0a…f7aabacked No52c24,758$12,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,958.054032.5%13 W · 27 L-5.3wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-52%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xff70…2475backed Yes59c23,072$13,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,372.31580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+46.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b76…edefbacked Yes44c21,768$9,579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,189.576336.5%23 W · 40 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x74bf…2a6ebacked No44c21,138$9,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,368.972045%9 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick59cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked No44c21,060$9,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,371.2210444.2%46 W · 58 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b30…54f9backed Yes52c20,532$10,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,936.26850%4 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+56.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf32a…06fdbacked Yes78c20,492$15,993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,499.152272.7%16 W · 6 L+6.2wins+0.28per pick45cpaid+50.1%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xdd5c…0c2abacked No40c20,000$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,0003327.3%9 W · 24 L-4.0wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-59.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc731…669cbacked No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-43.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed No0c19,995$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2019930.7%61 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6c3…eb07backed No46c19,585$8,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,928.1520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid+5.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb9e9…e211backed Yes53c19,283$10,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,060.381376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.19per pick58cpaid+32.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d77…b72cbacked Yes57c19,236$10,978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,257.041747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick36cpaid-3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x706c…a94bbacked Yes60c17,715$10,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,038.062250%11 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e7…40b4backed No1c17,360$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.376726.9%18 W · 49 L+0.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6195…4570backed Yes69c16,940$11,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,331.445246.2%24 W · 28 L+8.3wins+0.16per pick30cpaid+8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x78c6…4710backed Yes61c16,436$10,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,424.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa579…aad0backed No0c16,421$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.458610.5%9 W · 77 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3de8…371ebacked No43c16,390$7,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,033.2540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…2b32backed No3c15,143$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick5cpaid+43.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x41ea…7a3dbacked No11c15,000$1,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,605944.4%4 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.28per pick16cpaid+284.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9b69…38d3backed Yes41c14,665$6,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,652.275100%5 W · 0 L+2.8wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+206.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7525…cde1backed No30c14,555$4,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,353.734537.8%17 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed No44c14,396$6,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,390.26253.2%33 W · 29 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes53c14,297$7,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,790.9412634.9%44 W · 82 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x54e4…70b0backed No24c14,068$3,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,372.73935.9%14 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb52f…3c2dbacked No46c13,827$6,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,419.834936.7%18 W · 31 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No55c13,810$7,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,545.2326423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfee…64bbbacked No29c13,615$3,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,9601526.7%4 W · 11 L-4.2wins-0.28per pick55cpaid-58.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x60f7…050bbacked Yes63c13,549$8,535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,013.462166.7%14 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+18.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked No27c13,447$3,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,678.92458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+14.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No0c13,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132742.9%8 W · 266 L+0.5wins0.00per pick3cpaid-58.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d09…1e1dbacked No1c12,940$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes72c12,495$8,961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,533.634940.8%20 W · 29 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+34.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes52c12,488$6,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,981.2319829.3%58 W · 140 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7395…ae3bbacked Yes55c12,000$6,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,400250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c4c…cb39backed No5c11,921$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.514223.8%10 W · 32 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-34.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe61d…5672backed Yes41c11,774$4,851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,922.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+142.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe838…92fbbacked Yes52c11,574$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,573.881827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed No40c11,362$4,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,542.1648923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked No41c11,344$4,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,689.883844.7%17 W · 21 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed No18c11,339$2,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,027.3912650.8%64 W · 62 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+22.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8d19…be54backed Yes49c10,997$5,348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,648.743063.3%19 W · 11 L+7.0wins+0.23per pick40cpaid+78.6%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No28c10,736$3,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,047.3389617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xab4f…552fbacked No56c10,651$5,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,958.276127.9%17 W · 44 L-10.6wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-42.4%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x4b74…e8d7backed Yes71c10,594$7,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,090.367252.8%38 W · 34 L-5.4wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-10.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x44aa…d1d5backed No53c10,462$5,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,519.572123.8%5 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-33.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa7e9…4f6cbacked Yes61c10,407$6,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,104.855040%20 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+34.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf2e2…2093backed Yes62c10,346$6,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,956.742213.6%3 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick8cpaid+109.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x328f…cb31backed Yes47c10,275$4,857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,418.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+111.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8026…2f99backed Yes45c10,262$4,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,626.861442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfe3…73c4backed Yes48c10,000$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,2004553.3%24 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x663b…2308backed No57c10,000$5,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,699.93250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-19.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed No26c9,873$2,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,612.3110634%36 W · 70 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-17.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6989…b412backed No48c9,423$4,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,528.77714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.7wins-0.38per pick52cpaid-81.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa2f1…1c6cbacked No27c9,374$2,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,491.531637.5%6 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4489…2452backed Yes61c9,360$5,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,660.2475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f15…c363backed Yes50c9,198$4,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,558.241662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+61.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6cfe…30b6backed Yes56c8,949$5,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,916.893100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+82.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ecc…6931backed No45c8,833$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21d0…ce91backed Yes48c8,714$4,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,525.462560%15 W · 10 L+4.7wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+70.1%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No36c8,610$3,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,111.3740828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8b71…8044backed No58c8,600$4,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,955.793915.4%6 W · 33 L-5.0wins-0.13per pick28cpaid-37.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd4fc…1ab9backed Yes52c8,593$4,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,148.07580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e26…336cbacked No53c8,542$4,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,536.08333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-22.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe17…98e9backed No2c8,303$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.61425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3ae…440ebacked Yes50c8,300$4,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,190862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick56cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6cb…bbf0backed No50c8,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0001637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-40.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x54a5…ee3dbacked Yes54c7,620$4,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,505.311442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed No39c7,539$2,937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,936.624156.1%23 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0072…3d75backed No35c7,500$2,614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,614.4630%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Yes56c7,379$4,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,223.9712038.3%46 W · 74 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-26.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.