Middle East · resolved market
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6b7d4d8b4d2ff7dc8c9e5d6dd70b6eece210b8cf9e34fb45f9b9516cc4c76ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,606,548
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,626,163
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,606,548 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,445 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 53c | 406,892$214,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214,410.32 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xac4f…0a27backed No | 4c | 212,815$8,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,415.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 51c | 121,347$62,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62,304.95 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 43c | 113,653$49,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64,349.34 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b02…4991backed No | 5c | 107,933$5,863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,862.94 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c80…02c3backed No | 53c | 88,837$46,934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46,934.23 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 58c | 82,617$47,754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,863.35 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 32c | 73,689$23,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,719.19 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1521…f23ebacked Yes | 50c | 73,554$36,721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,833.51 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +7.6wins | +0.21per pick | 44cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…e4eebacked No | 41c | 71,000$28,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,869.84 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked No | 52c | 66,630$34,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,474.46 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3d…1e29backed Yes | 60c | 65,008$39,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,984.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 48c | 62,655$29,958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,696.56 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.23per pick | 24cpaid | +744.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x33e0…7d46backed Yes | 49c | 59,181$29,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,144.31 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x832f…a3d8backed Yes | 60c | 57,678$34,887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,790.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed No | 1c | 52,587$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.05 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | +10.2wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes | 49c | 46,469$22,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,922.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 6c | 42,339$2,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,738.02 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 59c | 40,012$23,583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,428.85 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ad…b0cfbacked No | 58c | 37,055$21,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,423.66 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd8f…20abbacked Yes | 42c | 34,165$14,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,770.13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa48b…92c1backed Yes | 57c | 33,941$19,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,754.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 77c | 31,415$24,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,275.3 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf580…7fadbacked No | 1c | 29,700$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.6 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0bf…2032backed Yes | 46c | 29,554$13,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,954.53 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +60%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…43c1backed Yes | 67c | 29,511$19,761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,749.62 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd08…5ee9backed No | 56c | 28,785$16,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,059.37 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +4.5wins | +0.28per pick | 53cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd576…d5e3backed Yes | 52c | 27,793$14,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,468.8 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked No | 52c | 24,758$12,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,958.05 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -52%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff70…2475backed Yes | 59c | 23,072$13,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,372.31 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b76…edefbacked Yes | 44c | 21,768$9,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,189.57 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74bf…2a6ebacked No | 44c | 21,138$9,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,368.97 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked No | 44c | 21,060$9,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,371.22 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b30…54f9backed Yes | 52c | 20,532$10,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,936.26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf32a…06fdbacked Yes | 78c | 20,492$15,993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,499.15 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +6.2wins | +0.28per pick | 45cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…0c2abacked No | 40c | 20,000$8,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,000 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc731…669cbacked No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 0c | 19,995$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c3…eb07backed No | 46c | 19,585$8,928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,928.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…e211backed Yes | 53c | 19,283$10,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,060.38 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…b72cbacked Yes | 57c | 19,236$10,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,257.04 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…a94bbacked Yes | 60c | 17,715$10,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,038.06 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e7…40b4backed No | 1c | 17,360$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.37 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…4570backed Yes | 69c | 16,940$11,609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,331.44 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +8.3wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x78c6…4710backed Yes | 61c | 16,436$10,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,424.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa579…aad0backed No | 0c | 16,421$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.45 | 86 | 10.5%9 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3de8…371ebacked No | 43c | 16,390$7,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,033.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…2b32backed No | 3c | 15,143$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ea…7a3dbacked No | 11c | 15,000$1,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,605 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 16cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b69…38d3backed Yes | 41c | 14,665$6,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,652.27 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +206.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7525…cde1backed No | 30c | 14,555$4,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,353.73 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 44c | 14,396$6,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,390.2 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 53c | 14,297$7,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,790.94 | 126 | 34.9%44 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54e4…70b0backed No | 24c | 14,068$3,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,372.7 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb52f…3c2dbacked No | 46c | 13,827$6,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,419.83 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 55c | 13,810$7,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,545.23 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfee…64bbbacked No | 29c | 13,615$3,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,960 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.28per pick | 55cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x60f7…050bbacked Yes | 63c | 13,549$8,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,013.46 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 27c | 13,447$3,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,678.9 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 0c | 13,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…1e1dbacked No | 1c | 12,940$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes | 72c | 12,495$8,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,533.63 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 52c | 12,488$6,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,981.23 | 198 | 29.3%58 W · 140 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7395…ae3bbacked Yes | 55c | 12,000$6,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,400 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4c…cb39backed No | 5c | 11,921$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.51 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe61d…5672backed Yes | 41c | 11,774$4,851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,922.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +142.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe838…92fbbacked Yes | 52c | 11,574$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,573.88 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 40c | 11,362$4,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,542.16 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked No | 41c | 11,344$4,690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,689.88 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 18c | 11,339$2,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,027.39 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…be54backed Yes | 49c | 10,997$5,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,648.74 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +7.0wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 28c | 10,736$3,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,047.33 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 56c | 10,651$5,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,958.27 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -10.6wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4b74…e8d7backed Yes | 71c | 10,594$7,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,090.36 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…d1d5backed No | 53c | 10,462$5,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,519.57 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e9…4f6cbacked Yes | 61c | 10,407$6,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,104.85 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e2…2093backed Yes | 62c | 10,346$6,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,956.74 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +109.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x328f…cb31backed Yes | 47c | 10,275$4,857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,418.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +111.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8026…2f99backed Yes | 45c | 10,262$4,635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,626.86 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed Yes | 48c | 10,000$4,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,200 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x663b…2308backed No | 57c | 10,000$5,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,699.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 26c | 9,873$2,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,612.31 | 106 | 34%36 W · 70 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6989…b412backed No | 48c | 9,423$4,529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,528.77 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.38per pick | 52cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…1c6cbacked No | 27c | 9,374$2,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,491.53 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4489…2452backed Yes | 61c | 9,360$5,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,660.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f15…c363backed Yes | 50c | 9,198$4,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,558.24 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6cfe…30b6backed Yes | 56c | 8,949$5,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,916.89 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ecc…6931backed No | 45c | 8,833$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 48c | 8,714$4,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,525.46 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 36c | 8,610$3,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,111.37 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b71…8044backed No | 58c | 8,600$4,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,955.79 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…1ab9backed Yes | 52c | 8,593$4,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,148.07 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e26…336cbacked No | 53c | 8,542$4,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,536.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed No | 2c | 8,303$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…440ebacked Yes | 50c | 8,300$4,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,190 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6cb…bbf0backed No | 50c | 8,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54a5…ee3dbacked Yes | 54c | 7,620$4,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,505.31 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 39c | 7,539$2,937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,936.62 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0072…3d75backed No | 35c | 7,500$2,614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,614.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 56c | 7,379$4,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,223.97 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.