TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc6cb…bbf0

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
68
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Fed Rates, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Fed Rates at 55 out of 100; worst Venezuela at 38.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-40.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$22.91
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$425Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$825
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$11,026Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+27.9%+$3,071.4
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$7,076Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$7,075.55
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$4,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$4,000
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$254Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$253.81
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,866Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$1,866.08
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$6,713Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$6,713.34
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$4,960Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+37.3%+$1,850.65
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$5,835Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+39.3%+$2,290.82
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+28.2%+$6.6
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$35.94
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$16
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$547Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$547.39
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$19.25
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$50.3
All 16 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Avatar 4 greenlit by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+33.4%+$30.45
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$23
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 400m and 440m by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$765Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$765.02
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,660Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+87.7%+$1,456.17
Will No Other Choice be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$328Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+26.5%+$86.86
Will F1 be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$518Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$517.82
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$178Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$178
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18
Will Steve Harrington die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$14.08
Will Murray die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$15.48
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$826Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+64.2%+$530.48
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 101m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$398Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$398.1
All 12 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$546Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+25%+$136.4
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$179Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$179.12
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$542Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$542.01
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$355Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+229.3%+$814.65
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$412Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$412.28
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,568Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+92.3%+$1,446.41
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$490Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$490
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+92.3%+$24
All 8 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 4, 2026, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick60cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST50%0 W · 5 L-3.2wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-53.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+53.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Nov 22, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Nuggets vs. Rocketsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+69.5%+$8.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+35.7%+$14.82
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$871Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+26%+$226
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Nov 24, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Buccaneers vs. Ramsbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST+25%+$28
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$51
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.