Movies · resolved market
Avatar 4 greenlit by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36b1d9ba58383fcdbdb8e4f0196ed9419646d99aa9a21622c77cd2a5e1f7bb21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf99e…9fcbbacked Yes | 80c | 5,008$4,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,005.93 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked No | 20c | 4,952$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,961.66 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x052c…5a0ebacked Yes | 58c | 1,934$1,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,116.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 33c | 1,847$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,228.69 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dff…1f35backed Yes | 59c | 821.93$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac89…ba4cbacked Yes | 13c | 684$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…5826backed No | 61c | 599.98$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.99 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ae…8598backed Yes | 17c | 484$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…01a3backed Yes | 17c | 445$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.65 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…b88fbacked No | 52c | 412.95$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.35 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed No | 68c | 329$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.88 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6467…7cadbacked Yes | 77c | 272.74$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.04 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc362…7f4fbacked Yes | 17c | 257$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.69 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7845…417bbacked No | 76c | 252.66$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.51 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 66c | 250.45$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.61 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd56c…e48ebacked Yes | 15c | 232.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6159…7501backed Yes | 17c | 212$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…75b7backed Yes | 17c | 204$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.6 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed No | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed No | 40c | 174.51$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.51 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +3.9wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…fc2bbacked No | 29c | 173.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.1 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed No | 40c | 173.1$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.86 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad23…47c4backed No | 52c | 165$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 27c | 148.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.97 | 131 | 30.5%40 W · 91 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0d…1359backed Yes | 58c | 144.12$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96fd…62f5backed Yes | 37c | 133.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…c557backed Yes | 79c | 126.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325a…a634backed Yes | 11c | 125$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 58c | 123.39$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.09 | 206 | 68.9%142 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6cb…bbf0backed No | 75c | 121.65$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…95c5backed Yes | 36c | 112.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…44a9backed Yes | 11c | 112$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba0d…c462backed Yes | 38c | 105.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -77%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab21…4b87backed Yes | 11c | 104$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d01…1645backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe239…47b7backed No | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 21cpaid | +165.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked No | 55c | 98.23$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.17 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed No | 24c | 94.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.6 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 25c | 92.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.61 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x083f…a55fbacked No | 28c | 70.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd5…ac11backed Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x631c…450fbacked No | 29c | 60.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.48 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e7…89b4backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed No | 58c | 59.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 19c | 59.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 154 | 9.7%15 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4f…e58cbacked Yes | 53c | 56.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x212c…2436backed Yes | 38c | 51.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd883…4fd7backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x548b…8390backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 22c | 48.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed No | 73c | 43.23$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked No | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c2…c482backed Yes | 39c | 38.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6758…d25ebacked Yes | 52c | 38.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed No | 54c | 35.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc098…7ae7backed No | 59c | 34.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 52c | 29.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 67c | 27.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb74…660ebacked No | 76c | 26.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c1…93d2backed Yes | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca4…923dbacked Yes | 70c | 21.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 72c | 20.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…aaf1backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…90e6backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…d5c3backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd045…6521backed No | 79c | 14.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf587…f3e0backed No | 79c | 12.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5428…1c69backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -74%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.