TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x3734…01a3

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
169
Categories scored
25
Categories below 50
14

Best Category: AI, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category AI at 59 out of 100; worst Middle East at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2026, EDT2441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lady Gaga attend the Met Gala?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$334Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$334.26
Avatar 4 greenlit by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.65
Will One Battle After Another win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$164Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$164.41
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$78.08
Will "Sinners" win Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture at the 32nd Actor Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$406Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+92.3%+$374.88
Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the top global Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$215Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+78.6%+$168.96
Will Sorry, Baby win Best Screenplay at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$103.68
Will Liz Patrick - SNL50: The Anniversary Special win Best Director of Variety at the 78th DGA Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$77.69
Will Adam Sandler be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$214Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+35.8%+$76.64
Will Guillermo del Toro be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$75.64
Will 2000 Meters to Andriivka be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$121.5
Will Michael B. Jordan be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+61.3%+$58.52
Will Come See Me in the Good Light be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$66.75
Will Apocalypse in the Tropics be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$66.08
Will It Was Just an Accident be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+163.2%+$120.9
Will Wicked: For Good be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$59.84
Will Frankenstein be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+29.9%+$2.99
Will Amy Madigan be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$11.02
Will Delroy Lindo be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+400%+$50.4
Will "Priscilla" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (January 13, 2026)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$61.6
Will "The Grinch" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$103.48
Will "Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$10.08
Will Douglas Aibel & Nina Gold (Jay Kelly) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$168Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST+33.3%+$56
Will Orwell: 2+2=5 be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$187Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST+33.3%+$62.25
All 24 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT2123.8%5 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-45.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$233Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$232.57
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$252Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$251.58
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.08
Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$197.86
Will USD fall to 1.4M Iranian rials by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$205.2
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.65
Will Iran strike Oman again in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$302Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$302.4
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+222.6%+$266.34
Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$68.64
Houthi strike on Israel by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$143.55
Will the US next strike Iran on March 9, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$10.4
Will the US next strike Iran on March 13, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$11.27
Will Israel or the US target Tehran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$342Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+108.3%+$370.76
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$314Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+117.4%+$368.82
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$180.45
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+127.3%+$152.32
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$148Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+75.4%+$111.8
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$230.1
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$154.06
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$29.58
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$62.73
All 21 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1957.9%11 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+52.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
AI — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$223Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$62.92
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.56
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$165Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$292.48
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.08
Will Craig Federighi be the next CEO of Apple?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.26
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$390Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$294.55
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$328Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$290.46
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$635Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$211.5
Will "M5" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+431.9%+$181.89
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.20 (LOW) by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$269Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$268.62
Will Artemis II launch by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+400%+$613.6
Will "Greenland" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$181Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+212.5%+$384.2
Google Gemini Parlaybacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$56.07
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$52.47
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$208Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+270.4%+$562.83
Nothing Ever Happens: AI Editionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+47.1%+$32.64
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$15.75
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$16.05
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+35.9%+$7.92
All 19 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT1942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$518Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+25%+$129.6
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$562Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$539.98
Named storm forms before hurricane season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$163Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$122.98
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$632Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$632.27
Will more than 350 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$137.41
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$126.92
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$436Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$436.02
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$52.03
Will Seattle have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$141.33
Will Seattle have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$74.1
Will January 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+66.7%+$35.6
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$141Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+92.3%+$130.08
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in December 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$181Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+244.8%+$443.04
Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in December?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$188Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$188.1
Will 1550 to 1599 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$83.2
Will NYC have less than 3 inches of precipitation in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$55.48
Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in December?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$443Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+32.7%+$144.85
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$10.15
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$248Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$248.2
All 19 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT1838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-33%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$273Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$81.42
Will the Phoenix Suns make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.06
Will the Miami Heat make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$117.65
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.16
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.1
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in blocks during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$168Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+63%+$105.94
Will Trae Young lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.47
Will Dyson Daniels lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+64.3%+$68.86
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.55
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$78.4
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win more than 43.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.5
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.5
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.17
Will the Chicago Bulls make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$174Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$111.15
Will the Toronto Raptors win more than 39.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+32.5%+$24.99
Will the Orlando Magic win more than 51.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.3
Will the San Antonio Spurs win more than 44.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$114.62
Will the Utah Jazz win more than 18.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$72.96
All 18 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT1442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$335Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$334.62
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$91.65
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$258Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+184.9%+$477.66
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by 10-15%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.2
Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 CAQ leadership elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$709Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$199.98
Will Tatiana Auguste win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$342Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$342.38
Will Tisza win 120-129 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$184.23
Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$189.38
Will 'Deadline' - BlackPink debut week album sales be less than 300k?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$163Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$162.64
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+55.2%+$48.73
Will Keir Starmer say "Iran" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$200.42
Will any of the stolen Louvre jewels be returned by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+33.3%+$10
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+135.8%+$131.33
Will Keir Starmer say "Northern Ireland" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$36
All 14 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST1154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick43cpaid-6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Music — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Felicia win Melodifestivalen 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$85.8
Will 'Prizefighter' - Mumford and Sons debut week album sales be less than 200k?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$462Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+44.9%+$207.39
Will SZA perform at the 2026 Grammy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$74.36
Will Chappell Roan perform at the 2026 Grammy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$36.96
Will GNX (Kendrick Lamar) win Album of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+38.9%+$18.76
Will APT (Rosé and Bruno Mars) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$145.08
Will Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+97.6%+$22.23
Will Olivia Dean win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+68.6%+$30.53
Will "EoO - Bad Bunny" win Best Global Music Performance at the 68th annual GRAMMY Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$322Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+150%+$483
Will "Sinners - Ludwig Göransson" win Best Score Soundtrack For Visual Media at the 68th annual GRAMMY Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$275Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+31.6%+$86.88
D4vd arrested by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$35.84
All 11 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+48.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Premier League — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 3, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-30.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
East Texas A&M Lions vs. Lamar Cardinalsbacked East Texas A&M Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.91
Butler Bulldogs vs. Georgetown Hoyas (W)backed Georgetown Hoyas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$226Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+49.3%+$111.54
Siena Saints vs. Rider Broncs: O/U 135.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$206Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+29.4%+$60.38
St. Francis (PA) Red Flash vs. Chicago State Cougarsbacked St. Francis (PA) Red Flash · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$276Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$276.32
All 4 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+23.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick63cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Asian League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+204.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+231.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$556Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+37%+$205.74
Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+426.3%+$208.98
All 2 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+354.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CSyD Defensa y Justicia win on 2026-03-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$209Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$209.09
Will Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata win on 2026-03-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+809.1%+$688.86
All 2 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 22, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
USD.AI FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.16
Ranger FDV above $30M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+127.3%+$25.76
All 2 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
AHL: Charlotte Checkers vs. Hershey Bearsbacked Hershey Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$440Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$131.56
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Pacific Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$317Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$317
All 2 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$169Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$168.5
Ukraine strike in Russia on 30 November 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$18.26
All 2 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$169.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$10.35
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.85
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Levante UD vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$348Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$347.93
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in November 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$59.08
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.