Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump lower tariffs on Mexico by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c238bfea00c8c8aca469223f5b158342f12e24dc4b29dea6802fbdead0a3bdf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,412
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,402
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,412 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 19c | 1,106$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.94 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…1322backed Yes | 79c | 515$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.7 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 76c | 486.89$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.04 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 76c | 453$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.28 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 76c | 430.86$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.32 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe433…1700backed Yes | 5c | 416$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 414.73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1063…1d3fbacked Yes | 6c | 385$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…2486backed Yes | 55c | 370$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.7 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f33…89cfbacked No | 58c | 348.37$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.35 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed No | 46c | 343.57$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.5 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -44%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…01a3backed Yes | 5c | 341$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 35c | 320$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x29da…d808backed Yes | 9c | 265.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…76c1backed Yes | 5c | 258$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +89.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f68…21ecbacked Yes | 6c | 227$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed Yes | 5c | 217$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -53%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 44c | 214.27$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.27 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 52c | 210$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.08 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7d…5bc1backed No | 71c | 208$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf977…aff0backed Yes | 5c | 205$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes | 13c | 198.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | +12.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…162abacked Yes | 6c | 189$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd8…8f4bbacked Yes | 18c | 185$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 38c | 179.96$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.86 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Yes | 77c | 174$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.52 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27f4…0430backed Yes | 41c | 156$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe99c…462abacked No | 24c | 137.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +190.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…aa3cbacked Yes | 7c | 137$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 9c | 115.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd652…d5a4backed No | 18c | 112.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +181.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacbf…be73backed No | 30c | 111.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.54 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 70c | 100.48$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.38 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06cd…e124backed Yes | 18c | 95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31a8…1f07backed Yes | 18c | 93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa457…1a93backed No | 59c | 83$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…a539backed Yes | 41c | 65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x750a…c5fbbacked No | 78c | 64.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…0c79backed Yes | 41c | 59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed No | 80c | 54.25$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 68cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b47…9930backed No | 59c | 51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea1…6487backed No | 59c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b66…002bbacked Yes | 75c | 41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3814…f0bfbacked Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 65cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked Yes | 79c | 29.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…f4d1backed No | 59c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…2849backed Yes | 54c | 20.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc139…2008backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Yes | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump lower tariffs on Mexico by December 31?this page
- Will Trump lower tariffs on Mexico by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.