Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump lower tariffs on Mexico by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04a16d650e40d709d5bdbcbb2c688d92a2f772a88a273d5c442767cd4d739d08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $117,017
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $117,702
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,017 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc18e…9b16backed Yes | 34c | 52,714$17,923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,922.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc458…ef36backed No | 66c | 52,714$34,791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,922.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 7c | 1,488$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.28 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 22c | 1,119$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.97 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 78c | 903.11$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.23 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes | 8c | 537$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.19 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 20c | 460$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 20c | 439$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.39 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 20c | 435.9$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.12 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked No | 65c | 253$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.05 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…ff53backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +118%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3d…2adbbacked Yes | 26c | 199.63$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.19 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…81b1backed Yes | 19c | 196$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes | 29c | 163.61$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.81 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa14b…b944backed No | 66c | 140.09$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7211…3f06backed No | 75c | 132.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47d2…4c10backed No | 79c | 127.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes | 28c | 127$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a45…0000backed Yes | 22c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…b09ebacked No | 67c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed Yes | 30c | 79.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 26c | 63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3c…9041backed Yes | 35c | 55.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf12f…a7f9backed Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x677d…ae46backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca8…ecd4backed No | 76c | 33.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump lower tariffs on Mexico by May 31?this page
- Will Trump lower tariffs on Mexico by December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.