TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x2f68…21ec

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
164
Categories scored
30
Categories below 50
17

Best Category: Champions League, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Champions League at 57 out of 100; worst Movies at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT2832.1%9 W · 19 L-4.6wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-50.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
Movies — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$163Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$163.25
Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 54m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$377Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$376.54
Will One Battle After Another win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$204Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$125.02
Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$91.74
Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 6 awards at the Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.52
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.6
Will Hamnet win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$10.73
Will Benicio del Toro win Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture at the 2026 SAG Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$64.26
Will "One Battle After Another" win Best Director at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$35.43
Will "Frankenstein" win Best Production Design at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$266Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$266.35
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$413Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+44.9%+$185.31
Will Amanda Seyfried be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$203Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$202.83
Will Adam Sandler be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+44.9%+$5.58
Will Jafar Panahi be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$338Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+64.4%+$217.33
Will Jacob Elordi be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$235Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+88.7%+$208.21
Will 2000 Meters to Andriivka be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$61.48
Will The Perfect Neighbor be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$581Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+35%+$203.12
Will Cutting Through Rocks be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$69.42
Will Mr. Nobody Against Putin be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$323Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$322.56
Will Wagner Moura be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+47.1%+$44.48
Will Train Dreams be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$82.8
Will Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$73.33
Will Emily Blunt be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$15.04
Will Elle Fanning be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$316Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+66.7%+$210.4
Will Stephen Graham (Adolescence) win Best Actor – Limited Series at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$148.92
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2250%11 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$408Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$115.06
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$229Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$229.4
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$289Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$72.2
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$193Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$192.85
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$128.52
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$180.81
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$380Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$380.06
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$485Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$485.48
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$191.88
Will Artemis II launch by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,106Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+35.5%+$392.78
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$127.65
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.83
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$362Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$362.32
Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+212.5%+$136
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$286Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+334.8%+$957.11
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+25%+$10.2
Will Apple release a new version of the Apple TV by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$24.51
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$41.03
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$50.05
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+138%+$86.4
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+26.6%+$5.88
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+35.9%+$6.86
All 22 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT1936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick45cpaid+1.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.24
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.51
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.68
US strikes Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$117.81
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$269Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+28.2%+$75.9
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$234Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$234.39
Iran strike on Qatar by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+185.7%+$195
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+669.2%+$468.93
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$89.11
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+81.8%+$9.9
Will Trump say "Armada" during meeting with Netanyahu?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$487Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+58.7%+$286.01
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$114.24
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$297Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$297.22
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$20.86
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$49.95
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+163.2%+$19.84
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$206Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$205.53
Hezbollah strike on Israel by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+49.3%+$5.94
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$281Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$281.05
All 19 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 20, 2026, EDT1656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Chet Holmgren win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.22
Will the Los Angeles Clippers make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$33.81
Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$403Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$402.74
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$343Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+101.1%+$346.85
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$260Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$82.08
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$565Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$564.84
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$35.6
Will the Atlanta Hawks make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$203Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$60.49
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+25%+$21.2
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.92
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025–2026 NBA Southwest Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+245.9%+$78.2
Will the Toronto Raptors win more than 39.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+115%+$59.37
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025–2026 NBA Northwest Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.9
Will the San Antonio Spurs make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.1
Will Keon Ellis be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$31.32
Will Trae Young be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$368Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST+69.5%+$255.84
All 16 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT1338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.63
Named storm forms before hurricane season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$209Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$209.41
Will 70 to 99 tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$275Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+25%+$68.8
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$264Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$264.32
Will February 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$168Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$56
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Will NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+170.3%+$173.25
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$133.64
Will fewer than 1550 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$11.55
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+437%+$283.2
Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$272Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$272
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in November 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$21.89
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$170Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+34.7%+$58.97
All 13 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-26.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$143Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$126.9
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$171Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+81.8%+$139.5
Will Keir Starmer say "Denmark" or "Greenland" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$451Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$451
Will PLN win the second most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$86.39
Will any of the stolen Louvre jewels be returned by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$29.25
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$162Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+65%+$105.59
Will Baluta win by 0-3%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$69.96
Will Ciprian Ciucu get between 20% and 25% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$41.18
Will Anca Alexandrescu get between 15% and 20% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+40.8%+$65.25
Will Anca Alexandrescu get at least 25% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+29.9%+$46.69
Will Keir Starmer say "Emergency" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$18.87
All 11 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+38.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST4100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+152.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Champions League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+101.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+233.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-57.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+135.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Asian League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Al Shabab Saudi Club win on 2025-12-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+371.7%+$450.74
Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club win on 2025-12-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$724Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$723.6
All 2 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+488.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$393.42
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by end of January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+138.1%+$15.66
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dundee FC vs. Motherwell FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$197Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+92.3%+$181.92
All 1 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: sleepers vs M80 (BO3) - VCL North America Playoffsbacked sleepers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+75.4%+$114.38
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin outperform Silver in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$232Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+37%+$85.86
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Nov 29, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in November 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$69.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran strike Habshan Field or any Processing Plants of the Habshan Complex by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$215Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$214.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jun 4, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tyler1 shave his head by June 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$229Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$229.32
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$286Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$286.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump say "2026" this week? (January 18)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$528Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$528.45
All 1 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. Paris Basketballbacked Paris Basketball · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$215Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$214.88
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.