Token Launches · resolved market
Ranger FDV above $60M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa21fa6eae6dcddcba78eb02f215d45eaa8d53a095fe1c96a007321bdf1fda276
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,437
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 27,886$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 4,916$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…400cbacked Yes | 6c | 3,862$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.96 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ea…4524backed Yes | 3c | 1,700$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 15c | 1,250$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.83 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2048…f572backed No | 80c | 1,236$985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.64 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5445…439ebacked Yes | 10c | 953.35$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.39 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…fd3bbacked Yes | 19c | 849.14$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.57 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Yes | 11c | 767.87$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.46 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…7842backed Yes | 10c | 766.35$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…1b9bbacked No | 79c | 641.59$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.82 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 636.61$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.19 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 427.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 9c | 358.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | -20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f07…4518backed Yes | 30c | 306.55$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79f2…15e0backed Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4129…ced6backed Yes | 15c | 287.36$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…542dbacked Yes | 15c | 275.49$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8736…7215backed Yes | 19c | 258.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2472…f7e0backed Yes | 26c | 254.47$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc3…73d1backed Yes | 12c | 253.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 5c | 232.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 11c | 207.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 169 | 27.8%47 W · 122 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfec…09a7backed Yes | 20c | 174$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 12c | 172.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 10c | 154.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 204 | 22.1%45 W · 159 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…884ebacked Yes | 13c | 152.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…73b4backed Yes | 13c | 151.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f68…21ecbacked Yes | 7c | 151$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e9…84eabacked Yes | 20c | 150.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…b38fbacked No | 80c | 140$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a0…5f55backed Yes | 19c | 138.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78a8…9850backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe3…b245backed No | 57c | 90$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…ef00backed Yes | 16c | 85.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x09e0…f99ebacked Yes | 19c | 83.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882e…e757backed No | 79c | 82.43$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…181abacked Yes | 23c | 73.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…4bdebacked Yes | 31c | 64.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc05f…9b56backed Yes | 31c | 64.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…01e0backed Yes | 31c | 64.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 79c | 54.39$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc460…0aa4backed Yes | 21c | 52.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c56…6d26backed Yes | 27c | 43.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…6d90backed No | 80c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ed…09dabacked No | 61c | 25.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ranger FDV above $60M one day after launch?this page
- Ranger FDV above $15M one day after launch?Yes won
- Ranger FDV above $20M one day after launch?No won
- Ranger FDV above $30M one day after launch?No won
- Ranger FDV above $40M one day after launch?No won
- Ranger FDV above $50M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.