Token Launches · resolved market
Ranger FDV above $30M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32c8b5338ceee5c4b600c2de3764856678a05cbbd60341b55f854dc11d7be2c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $189,123
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $177,714
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $189,123 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 220 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5c4…0926backed Yes | 10c | 11,432$1,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,143.2 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb01…e156backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…1b9bbacked No | 48c | 7,829$3,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,054.1 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bc…f954backed Yes | 48c | 5,090$2,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,421.53 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…400cbacked Yes | 29c | 4,329$1,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,234.6 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 4,015$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…33aabacked Yes | 35c | 4,000$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…256abacked Yes | 18c | 4,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fe…4a24backed Yes | 25c | 4,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d7…3e75backed Yes | 22c | 3,202$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a7…2c03backed No | 65c | 3,082$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,082.02 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3d…e051backed Yes | 1c | 3,014$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed No | 39c | 2,887$1,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,758.87 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe270…10b5backed Yes | 53c | 2,551$1,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,363.53 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed3…aa68backed Yes | 48c | 2,502$1,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,204.07 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x828d…c9a5backed Yes | 46c | 2,500$1,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,149.16 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…fd3bbacked Yes | 57c | 2,322$1,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,319.17 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc3…8548backed Yes | 11c | 2,283$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd2…33b8backed Yes | 39c | 2,276$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.1 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc445…552cbacked No | 62c | 1,979$1,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.02 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe511…55f3backed No | 53c | 1,970$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.77 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5445…439ebacked Yes | 45c | 1,831$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.86 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcd…c2acbacked No | 61c | 1,500$915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…7842backed Yes | 56c | 1,411$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.26 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bf…8763backed Yes | 11c | 1,332$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.86 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 1,329$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c3…a9bebacked Yes | 71c | 1,236$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked Yes | 41c | 1,225$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,185$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 75 | 4%3 W · 72 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…ef00backed Yes | 39c | 1,155$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.88 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 63c | 1,075$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.33 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad4…3d8cbacked Yes | 41c | 1,075$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.88 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…5e0bbacked Yes | 48c | 1,050$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00da…2fe4backed No | 53c | 999.99$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.85 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad0…00f4backed No | 51c | 982.15$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed No | 41c | 970.17$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.81 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 936.8$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.66 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f61…011abacked Yes | 66c | 913.02$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed No | 56c | 900$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 39c | 884.88$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.19 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 800$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbf…4ec0backed No | 56c | 799.96$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.98 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f1…a9c7backed Yes | 65c | 769.98$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.49 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b0…bd69backed Yes | 70c | 736.65$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.2 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 736.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…467bbacked No | 46c | 724$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.48 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…7424backed Yes | 7c | 710$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd61c…84fbbacked Yes | 71c | 703.06$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc483…8ac8backed Yes | 55c | 700.91$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.08 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd8…a74abacked Yes | 11c | 700$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 75 | 14.7%11 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 676.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd3…4af3backed No | 36c | 666.69$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.59 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91f9…ba4dbacked No | 64c | 634.76$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.32 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1443…e7bebacked Yes | 4c | 624.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd588…cec0backed Yes | 11c | 611.33$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.8 | 85 | 21.2%18 W · 67 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8344…83aebacked No | 49c | 609.07$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.07 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e90…19a8backed Yes | 41c | 600$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb650…3c7dbacked Yes | 41c | 524.72$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…61b7backed No | 56c | 522.41$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.86 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes | 11c | 516$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.08 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb7…4ef3backed Yes | 58c | 512.95$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05fd…50c9backed Yes | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +30%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92d4…91bfbacked Yes | 47c | 481.59$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.73 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa2…c75fbacked Yes | 6c | 448.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a6…d1bbbacked No | 59c | 441.64$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.07 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…772cbacked No | 61c | 412.55$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.65 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 119 | 0.8%1 W · 118 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 5c | 400$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 112 | 2.7%3 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f1…3dccbacked No | 47c | 400$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefc3…081fbacked No | 45c | 400$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 19cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x37d8…36fdbacked No | 44c | 399.99$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad23…47c4backed No | 80c | 399.1$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.33 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x924e…3fe8backed Yes | 53c | 374.99$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc93…8b29backed Yes | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5c…eaf0backed No | 54c | 349.21$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.66 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3f…f5eebacked No | 57c | 344.1$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.78 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 65c | 342.34$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.6 | 156 | 37.2%58 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 66c | 328.82$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.87 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -9.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51ec…05fdbacked Yes | 45c | 307$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.98 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f7…801dbacked Yes | 50c | 306.78$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d30bbacked Yes | 39c | 300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.31per pick | 41cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xea89…c067backed Yes | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…888fbacked No | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…b624backed No | 31c | 299.99$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.99 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0822…84e5backed No | 32c | 284.14$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.69 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +6.3wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +206.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb9…d171backed Yes | 5c | 279.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked No | 64c | 272.27$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.32 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508a…717abacked No | 76c | 262.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +4.7wins | +0.22per pick | 59cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f90…41fcbacked Yes | 46c | 240$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f5…a248backed Yes | 52c | 232.63$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0303…2ae3backed Yes | 48c | 232.29$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed Yes | 70c | 230$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf62c…b420backed Yes | 46c | 225.5$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7d…5bc1backed No | 71c | 215$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedda…2e39backed No | 66c | 211.24$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.24 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 200.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed No | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +22.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd1…9249backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb99…4daebacked No | 31c | 200$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ranger FDV above $30M one day after launch?this page
- Ranger FDV above $15M one day after launch?Yes won
- Ranger FDV above $20M one day after launch?No won
- Ranger FDV above $40M one day after launch?No won
- Ranger FDV above $50M one day after launch?No won
- Ranger FDV above $60M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.