TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Ranger FDV above $30M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$189,123
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$177,714

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $189,123 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 220 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf5c4…0926backed Yes10c11,432$1,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,143.22653.8%14 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c11,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221712.9%5 W · 166 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-37.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdb01…e156backed Yes0c10,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4090%0 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce1d…1b9bbacked No48c7,829$3,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,054.110045%45 W · 55 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1bc…f954backed Yes48c5,090$2,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,421.53933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x28f7…400cbacked Yes29c4,329$1,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,234.63135.5%11 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes1c4,015$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.941662.4%4 W · 162 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15b1…33aabacked Yes35c4,000$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,40030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1d…256abacked Yes18c4,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7205614.3%8 W · 48 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-52.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3fe…4a24backed Yes25c4,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00012528%35 W · 90 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+22.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb8d7…3e75backed Yes22c3,202$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.08742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x11a7…2c03backed No65c3,082$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,082.023256.3%18 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a3d…e051backed Yes1c3,014$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf629…bda0backed No39c2,887$1,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,758.879442.6%40 W · 54 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe270…10b5backed Yes53c2,551$1,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,363.536634.8%23 W · 43 L+0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ed3…aa68backed Yes48c2,502$1,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,204.071612.5%2 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick25cpaid-81.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x828d…c9a5backed Yes46c2,500$1,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,149.162842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61d3…fd3bbacked Yes57c2,322$1,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,319.171855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bc3…8548backed Yes11c2,283$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2503330.3%10 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-19.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dd2…33b8backed Yes39c2,276$889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$889.12433.3%8 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc445…552cbacked No62c1,979$1,227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.021275%9 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+65.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe511…55f3backed No53c1,970$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$919.773063.3%19 W · 11 L+3.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+18.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5445…439ebacked Yes45c1,831$831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$830.862910.3%3 W · 26 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-63%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5fcd…c2acbacked No61c1,500$915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5851947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick39cpaid-25.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc76…7842backed Yes56c1,411$796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$796.265135.3%18 W · 33 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa5bf…8763backed Yes11c1,332$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.865332.1%17 W · 36 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c1,329$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.83283%10 W · 318 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28c3…a9bebacked Yes71c1,236$878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$877.85366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6911…947cbacked Yes41c1,225$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003834.2%13 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes3c1,185$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.95754%3 W · 72 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-52.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a59…ef00backed Yes39c1,155$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.88130%0 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No63c1,075$679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.339942.4%42 W · 57 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ad4…3d8cbacked Yes41c1,075$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.8814732%47 W · 100 L+12.7wins+0.09per pick23cpaid+44%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc95c…5e0bbacked Yes48c1,050$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00da…2fe4backed No53c999.99$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.852152.4%11 W · 10 L+3.1wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+70.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7ad0…00f4backed No51c982.15$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.15333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-34.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe95e…61f2backed No41c970.17$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570.8115041.3%62 W · 88 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes18c936.8$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.6635712.9%46 W · 311 L-29.9wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-55.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4f61…011abacked Yes66c913.02$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+44.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x93b7…7d51backed No56c900$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39920551.2%105 W · 100 L+13.3wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes39c884.88$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.193013.3%4 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes4c800$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.22541.6%4 W · 250 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-71.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cbf…4ec0backed No56c799.96$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.982646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f1…a9c7backed Yes65c769.98$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.49180%0 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd7b0…bd69backed Yes70c736.65$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.22740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-22.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes4c736.32$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.911343.7%5 W · 129 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-52.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a9a…467bbacked No46c724$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.484129.3%12 W · 29 L-4.2wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-41.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd31c…7424backed Yes7c710$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7875%6 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+36.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd61c…84fbbacked Yes71c703.06$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-48.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc483…8ac8backed Yes55c700.91$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.085040%20 W · 30 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+29.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0bd8…a74abacked Yes11c700$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777514.7%11 W · 64 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-26.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes4c676.35$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.322094.3%9 W · 200 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-73.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0cd3…4af3backed No36c666.69$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.591752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+28.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x91f9…ba4dbacked No64c634.76$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.32666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+32.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1443…e7bebacked Yes4c624.86$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2230%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd588…cec0backed Yes11c611.33$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.88521.2%18 W · 67 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-57.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8344…83aebacked No49c609.07$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.07955.6%5 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e90…19a8backed Yes41c600$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24680%0 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb650…3c7dbacked Yes41c524.72$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.14250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ba3…61b7backed No56c522.41$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.861241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes11c516$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.08850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdb7…4ef3backed Yes58c512.95$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-40.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x05fd…50c9backed Yes49c500$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2452560%15 W · 10 L+3.7wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+30%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x92d4…91bfbacked Yes47c481.59$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.73633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaa2…c75fbacked Yes6c448.48$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44a6…d1bbbacked No59c441.64$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.071735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-42.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2ff…772cbacked No61c412.55$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.654030%12 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-29.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes6c400$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241190.8%1 W · 118 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick5cpaid-85.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes5c400$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.21122.7%3 W · 109 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-65.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41f1…3dccbacked No47c400$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2133735.1%13 W · 24 L+3.9wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xefc3…081fbacked No45c400$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2203636.1%13 W · 23 L+6.1wins+0.17per pick19cpaid+72.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x37d8…36fdbacked No44c399.99$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2252339.1%9 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xad23…47c4backed No80c399.1$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.3310763.6%68 W · 39 L+11.1wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+11.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x924e…3fe8backed Yes53c374.99$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc93…8b29backed Yes55c363.64$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001850%9 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c5c…eaf0backed No54c349.21$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.662326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b3f…f5eebacked No57c344.1$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.781822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-28.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No65c342.34$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.615637.2%58 W · 98 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked No66c328.82$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.878528.2%24 W · 61 L-9.0wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-45.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x51ec…05fdbacked Yes45c307$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.987147.9%34 W · 37 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f7…801dbacked Yes50c306.78$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.9633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-29.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c7d…d30bbacked Yes39c300$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117119.1%1 W · 10 L-3.5wins-0.31per pick41cpaid-86.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xea89…c067backed Yes36c300$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaa5…888fbacked No51c300$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1476940.6%28 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe182…b624backed No31c299.99$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.9911225.9%29 W · 83 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0822…84e5backed No32c284.14$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.693063.3%19 W · 11 L+6.3wins+0.21per pick42cpaid+206.5%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x2cb9…d171backed Yes5c279.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60d1…0c8fbacked No64c272.27$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.3215539.4%61 W · 94 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x508a…717abacked No76c262.53$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.52181%17 W · 4 L+4.7wins+0.22per pick59cpaid+34.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8f90…41fcbacked Yes46c240$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.4425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-53.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6f5…a248backed Yes52c232.63$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0303…2ae3backed Yes48c232.29$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.71040%4 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x036f…31a9backed Yes70c230$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+50.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf62c…b420backed Yes46c225.5$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.96520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-60%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7d…5bc1backed No71c215$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.352100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+105.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xedda…2e39backed No66c211.24$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.249240.2%37 W · 55 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes8c200.85$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.927663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a68…6679backed No44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11215362.7%96 W · 57 L+22.4wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+21.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x3cd1…9249backed Yes11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick19cpaid-74.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb99…4daebacked No31c200$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1389222.8%21 W · 71 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+60.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.