TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Ranger FDV above $20M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$202,995
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$179,171

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $202,995 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 217 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1bc3…8548backed Yes22c11,509$2,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,478.993330.3%10 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-19.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f24…c911backed Yes13c10,000$1,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,285.625240.4%21 W · 31 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a67…df6fbacked Yes5c9,337$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.484816.7%8 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-53.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5c4…0926backed Yes45c4,661$2,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,092.612653.8%14 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xce1d…1b9bbacked No22c4,552$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,568.2210045%45 W · 55 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3499…2858backed No75c4,079$3,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,024.141526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.6wins-0.24per pick50cpaid-43.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xad23…47c4backed Yes10c4,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41010763.6%68 W · 39 L+11.1wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+11.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xac9b…d4c5backed No13c3,744$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,247.6112840.6%52 W · 76 L+13.8wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9dc5…5a8dbacked No37c3,498$1,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,189.281127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-49.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61d3…fd3bbacked Yes79c3,141$2,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,468.971855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28f7…400cbacked Yes43c2,725$1,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,176.543135.5%11 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x087a…11debacked No70c2,707$1,886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821.13560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf40a…5899backed No13c2,511$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,187.42837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+47.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7416…fef6backed Yes68c2,495$1,693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,692.74250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60d1…0c8fbacked No20c2,352$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,892.7515539.4%61 W · 94 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bfb…1b77backed Yes30c2,265$669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668.811711.8%2 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick24cpaid-79.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa095…66bcbacked No6c2,200$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0601040%4 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+158.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1d…256abacked No17c2,125$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,760.375614.3%8 W · 48 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-52.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf629…bda0backed No18c2,033$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,669.419442.6%40 W · 54 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c1,949$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.77663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x172e…4f37backed No17c1,855$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,539.461020%2 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-25.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x76c9…1917backed No27c1,788$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,308.995330.2%16 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28b2…ff45backed No17c1,688$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,405.352520%5 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a59…ef00backed Yes72c1,666$1,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,191.73130%0 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3df8…be2cbacked No18c1,622$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,330.15580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.35per pick45cpaid+140.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6eb5…d941backed Yes10c1,523$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.372540%10 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-23%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bd8…a74abacked Yes38c1,470$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.77514.7%11 W · 64 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-26.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fe5…a206backed Yes10c1,374$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.414327.9%12 W · 31 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+30.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6911…947cbacked Yes77c1,303$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003834.2%13 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1bc…f954backed Yes72c1,254$903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902.92933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb357…ff05backed No65c1,246$804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.922152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cf1…ee87backed Yes3c1,200$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.64318.6%8 W · 35 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+67.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1dc…ff6cbacked No18c1,172$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$962.231145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick31cpaid+33.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8cb1…50ffbacked No52c1,162$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.191926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-49.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac2…ea15backed No9c1,063$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$964.352245.5%10 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+37.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xba11…59d6backed Yes79c1,046$824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.26250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid+6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No17c1,038$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$861.933013.3%4 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc483…8ac8backed Yes79c1,000$787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$786.585040%20 W · 30 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+29.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked No80c1,000$799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.27545.3%34 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3fe…4a24backed No19c1,000$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81012528%35 W · 90 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+22.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9564…3a32backed No12c1,000$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8803636.1%13 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2048…f572backed Yes72c928.18$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.649046.7%42 W · 48 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda0f…f0e7backed No20c922.86$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742.117234.7%25 W · 47 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc694…1171backed Yes17c899.99$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.57123.9%17 W · 54 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+17.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd526…03abbacked No79c888.19$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.575341.5%22 W · 31 L+4.5wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x77e4…d18fbacked No17c862.17$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$712.175736.8%21 W · 36 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+26.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ad4…3d8cbacked Yes28c857.64$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.6814732%47 W · 100 L+12.7wins+0.09per pick23cpaid+44%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5b3f…f5eebacked No14c803.72$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$692.371822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-28.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed No68c800$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.134938.8%19 W · 30 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+9.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x21b2…b602backed Yes69c800$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5525942.4%25 W · 34 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ced…1f21backed No23c800$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6163729.7%11 W · 26 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-34.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes4c800$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.22442%5 W · 239 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-56.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fca…f72ebacked Yes6c799.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.513131.3%41 W · 90 L+12.1wins+0.09per pick22cpaid+164.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe020…ff13backed No63c797.83$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.83771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c43…2b0abacked Yes79c783.77$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.1820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4636…e0c7backed Yes79c745.57$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick68cpaid-56.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d35…23c1backed Yes11c707.88$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.394037.5%15 W · 25 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x44a6…d1bbbacked No59c683.19$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.881735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-42.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8635…54efbacked No74c677.78$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.78728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-57.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes7c671.4$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.412094.3%9 W · 200 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-73.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbcf…20aebacked Yes5c664.71$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.721838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-20.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51ce…c2ddbacked Yes7c600$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-34.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c600$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.13283%10 W · 318 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefc3…081fbacked No18c600$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4923636.1%13 W · 23 L+6.1wins+0.17per pick19cpaid+72.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf6cb…3f69backed No20c593.64$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.6513134.4%45 W · 86 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x111b…f904backed No18c587.92$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.44425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+39.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c5c…eaf0backed No17c585.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.892326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfae3…f1c9backed No68c559.44$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.77988.9%8 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick71cpaid+24.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbaa9…4baabacked No49c543.82$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.236240.3%25 W · 37 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x640f…bbd8backed No20c543.2$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.361428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick22cpaid-19.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked No20c528.15$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.9314141.8%59 W · 82 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ba3…61b7backed No19c522.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.981241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e37…cccbbacked No32c502.56$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34210143.6%44 W · 57 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No2c500$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490932.2%2 W · 91 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ed3…aa68backed Yes70c500$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3501612.5%2 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick25cpaid-81.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0f6…f699backed No12c500$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44023841.2%98 W · 140 L+25.1wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+30.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdb01…e156backed Yes21c500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10590%0 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x08a0…11f9backed Yes66c499.85$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.91827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-46.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No35c498.46$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.7513054.6%71 W · 59 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+8.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ccb…05edbacked No30c460$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3221100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb24f…38cfbacked No74c452.37$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.372100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5bf…8763backed Yes37c444$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.285332.1%17 W · 36 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked Yes55c427.36$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.059747.4%46 W · 51 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x41f1…3dccbacked No16c400$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3383735.1%13 W · 24 L+3.9wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e90…19a8backed Yes75c400$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30080%0 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdeb0…219cbacked No78c394.32$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.561258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes4c390.79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.622541.6%4 W · 250 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-71.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0d1…c141backed No53c377.36$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.36966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ea5…3fdabacked No73c356.55$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.562944.8%13 W · 16 L+4.6wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+61.7%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x2f25…7e47backed No67c353.33$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.33450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-30%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e53…6ba9backed Yes5c350$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.457745.5%35 W · 42 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe79…e6dcbacked Yes10c350$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.71040%4 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No49c348.24$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.369942.4%42 W · 57 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed Yes7c347.11$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.99422.3%21 W · 73 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-39.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fbc…f820backed Yes5c341.04$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.95922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-54.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf05…2a23backed No15c338.66$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.863716.2%6 W · 31 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick23cpaid+10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb203…1f24backed No15c329.14$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.141118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-26%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb82…4bf9backed No22c300$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2342425%6 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1af5…89babacked No79c300$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$635240.4%21 W · 31 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8f9…55f0backed No32c300$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.022227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.