Token Launches · resolved market
Ranger FDV above $20M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe31d6c3b3ff7d85d2ac3937133d55fced3ca78d3cdaa7522d9e2b74a8ba92894
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $202,995
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $179,171
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $202,995 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 217 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1bc3…8548backed Yes | 22c | 11,509$2,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,478.99 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f24…c911backed Yes | 13c | 10,000$1,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,285.62 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a67…df6fbacked Yes | 5c | 9,337$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.48 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c4…0926backed Yes | 45c | 4,661$2,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,092.61 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…1b9bbacked No | 22c | 4,552$984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,568.22 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3499…2858backed No | 75c | 4,079$3,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024.14 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad23…47c4backed Yes | 10c | 4,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 13c | 3,744$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,247.61 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…5a8dbacked No | 37c | 3,498$1,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,189.28 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…fd3bbacked Yes | 79c | 3,141$2,469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,468.97 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…400cbacked Yes | 43c | 2,725$1,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,176.54 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x087a…11debacked No | 70c | 2,707$1,886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf40a…5899backed No | 13c | 2,511$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,187.42 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7416…fef6backed Yes | 68c | 2,495$1,693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,692.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked No | 20c | 2,352$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,892.75 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfb…1b77backed Yes | 30c | 2,265$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.81 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa095…66bcbacked No | 6c | 2,200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,060 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +158.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…256abacked No | 17c | 2,125$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,760.37 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed No | 18c | 2,033$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,669.41 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,949$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.7 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x172e…4f37backed No | 17c | 1,855$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,539.46 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76c9…1917backed No | 27c | 1,788$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,308.99 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…ff45backed No | 17c | 1,688$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,405.35 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…ef00backed Yes | 72c | 1,666$1,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,191.73 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3df8…be2cbacked No | 18c | 1,622$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,330.15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +140.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb5…d941backed Yes | 10c | 1,523$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.37 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd8…a74abacked Yes | 38c | 1,470$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.7 | 75 | 14.7%11 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…a206backed Yes | 10c | 1,374$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.41 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked Yes | 77c | 1,303$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bc…f954backed Yes | 72c | 1,254$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.92 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb357…ff05backed No | 65c | 1,246$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.92 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf1…ee87backed Yes | 3c | 1,200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1dc…ff6cbacked No | 18c | 1,172$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.23 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb1…50ffbacked No | 52c | 1,162$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.19 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac2…ea15backed No | 9c | 1,063$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$964.35 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba11…59d6backed Yes | 79c | 1,046$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 17c | 1,038$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.93 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc483…8ac8backed Yes | 79c | 1,000$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.58 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked No | 80c | 1,000$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.2 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fe…4a24backed No | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9564…3a32backed No | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2048…f572backed Yes | 72c | 928.18$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.64 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed No | 20c | 922.86$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.11 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc694…1171backed Yes | 17c | 899.99$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd526…03abbacked No | 79c | 888.19$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.57 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77e4…d18fbacked No | 17c | 862.17$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.17 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad4…3d8cbacked Yes | 28c | 857.64$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.68 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3f…f5eebacked No | 14c | 803.72$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.37 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 68c | 800$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.13 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21b2…b602backed Yes | 69c | 800$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ced…1f21backed No | 23c | 800$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 800$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…f72ebacked Yes | 6c | 799.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe020…ff13backed No | 63c | 797.83$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.83 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c43…2b0abacked Yes | 79c | 783.77$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4636…e0c7backed Yes | 79c | 745.57$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d35…23c1backed Yes | 11c | 707.88$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.39 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44a6…d1bbbacked No | 59c | 683.19$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.88 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8635…54efbacked No | 74c | 677.78$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 7c | 671.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.41 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcf…20aebacked Yes | 5c | 664.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…c2ddbacked Yes | 7c | 600$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 600$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc3…081fbacked No | 18c | 600$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 19cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…3f69backed No | 20c | 593.64$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.65 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x111b…f904backed No | 18c | 587.92$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5c…eaf0backed No | 17c | 585.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.89 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfae3…f1c9backed No | 68c | 559.44$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.77 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa9…4baabacked No | 49c | 543.82$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.23 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x640f…bbd8backed No | 20c | 543.2$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.36 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked No | 20c | 528.15$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.93 | 141 | 41.8%59 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…61b7backed No | 19c | 522.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.98 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e37…cccbbacked No | 32c | 502.56$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 2c | 500$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed3…aa68backed Yes | 70c | 500$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 12c | 500$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdb01…e156backed Yes | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08a0…11f9backed Yes | 66c | 499.85$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.9 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 35c | 498.46$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.75 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccb…05edbacked No | 30c | 460$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb24f…38cfbacked No | 74c | 452.37$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bf…8763backed Yes | 37c | 444$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.28 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked Yes | 55c | 427.36$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.05 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f1…3dccbacked No | 16c | 400$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e90…19a8backed Yes | 75c | 400$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb0…219cbacked No | 78c | 394.32$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.56 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 390.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d1…c141backed No | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea5…3fdabacked No | 73c | 356.55$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.56 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +4.6wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f25…7e47backed No | 67c | 353.33$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -30%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…6ba9backed Yes | 5c | 350$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe79…e6dcbacked Yes | 10c | 350$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 49c | 348.24$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.36 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Yes | 7c | 347.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 94 | 22.3%21 W · 73 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbc…f820backed Yes | 5c | 341.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…2a23backed No | 15c | 338.66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.86 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb203…1f24backed No | 15c | 329.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.14 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb82…4bf9backed No | 22c | 300$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af5…89babacked No | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f9…55f0backed No | 32c | 300$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.02 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ranger FDV above $20M one day after launch?this page
- Ranger FDV above $15M one day after launch?Yes won
- Ranger FDV above $30M one day after launch?No won
- Ranger FDV above $40M one day after launch?No won
- Ranger FDV above $50M one day after launch?No won
- Ranger FDV above $60M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.