Token Launches · resolved market
Ranger FDV above $40M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae604e42788a42a00ddb20a2653483037d9843df28907815e971037c965cc366
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $111,183
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $106,213
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,183 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x15b1…33aabacked Yes | 15c | 30,000$4,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcd…c2acbacked No | 75c | 8,764$6,552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,211.53 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2229…f373backed Yes | 0c | 8,361$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 5,531$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…400cbacked Yes | 25c | 4,436$1,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,104.61 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…ab8dbacked Yes | 36c | 4,200$1,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,511.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bc…f954backed Yes | 33c | 2,437$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.34 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…1b9bbacked No | 67c | 2,071$1,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.97 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…fd3bbacked Yes | 39c | 2,022$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.21 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…5e0bbacked Yes | 26c | 1,695$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.45 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,501$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.71 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad4…3d8cbacked Yes | 25c | 1,500$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.68 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd45…3dd4backed Yes | 25c | 1,297$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.59 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…6aacbacked Yes | 15c | 999.99$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3479…ea1abacked No | 61c | 996.99$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…ef00backed Yes | 17c | 951.53$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.83 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 25c | 918.75$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.71 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 900$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbf…4ec0backed No | 79c | 830$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.42 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e5…fabdbacked Yes | 18c | 813.97$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 750$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb7…4ef3backed Yes | 34c | 649.18$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 6c | 617.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 584.51$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.19 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5445…439ebacked Yes | 24c | 551.67$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.98 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeca3…105cbacked No | 62c | 549.99$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e90…19a8backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe511…55f3backed No | 63c | 484.99$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.15 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…4b26backed Yes | 24c | 437.54$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd2…33b8backed Yes | 23c | 434.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00da…2fe4backed No | 40c | 431.23$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.74 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf584…803cbacked Yes | 60c | 418.57$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f9…ba4dbacked No | 73c | 400$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 76c | 365.74$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.56 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +13.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…9bfdbacked Yes | 28c | 361.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…888fbacked No | 58c | 360$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508a…717abacked No | 77c | 310.58$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.46 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +4.7wins | +0.22per pick | 59cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a64…767fbacked Yes | 39c | 244.28$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.86 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed No | 63c | 200$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +22.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xacd8…1325backed No | 72c | 199.99$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb55f…5705backed Yes | 27c | 185$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b2…eccabacked Yes | 9c | 160$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 18c | 157$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 156 | 37.2%58 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd091…e046backed Yes | 38c | 157$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 22c | 150.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a12…ec08backed No | 62c | 149.99$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8663…b280backed Yes | 16c | 149.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b34…b5b5backed No | 73c | 140$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd3…4af3backed No | 56c | 138.17$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.57 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 20c | 136.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c2…e8a3backed Yes | 37c | 135.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb929…16aabacked No | 38c | 133$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e4…0e38backed Yes | 39c | 126.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa23…f59abacked Yes | 20c | 126.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc001…4b7cbacked Yes | 26c | 120$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c3…cf5cbacked Yes | 25c | 109.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…3fd0backed Yes | 49c | 101.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Yes | 18c | 101$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -9.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04d2…2826backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78a8…9850backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…9af5backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x82b5…bd59backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x647e…ee98backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e27…2bcebacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…884ebacked Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…f3dcbacked No | 62c | 82$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb45b…034abacked No | 64c | 79.71$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc123…115cbacked No | 62c | 77$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c7…2371backed Yes | 43c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd3…4191backed No | 65c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd33…1aa9backed No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc05f…9b56backed Yes | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a47…7ce4backed Yes | 30c | 66.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…e59cbacked Yes | 32c | 65.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…a316backed No | 73c | 65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93f3…5d04backed No | 65c | 61.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b48…02f1backed Yes | 34c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f45…42d2backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1a…24a3backed Yes | 38c | 50.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 34c | 47.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3814…4fe4backed No | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.31per pick | 58cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2907…f90fbacked No | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 61c | 40.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 204 | 22.1%45 W · 159 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…f755backed No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe972…4cfbbacked No | 56c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d28…9b1cbacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…4bdebacked Yes | 59c | 33.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…01e0backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…392fbacked No | 60c | 33.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x562d…7a9dbacked No | 63c | 31.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1e…f4fcbacked No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 60cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb7…0cd1backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ec…f6fabacked No | 64c | 31.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeff…0b8cbacked No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7332…2535backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21e9…184ebacked No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b9…cd3cbacked No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd877…dde5backed No | 71c | 28.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ranger FDV above $40M one day after launch?this page
- Ranger FDV above $15M one day after launch?Yes won
- Ranger FDV above $20M one day after launch?No won
- Ranger FDV above $30M one day after launch?No won
- Ranger FDV above $50M one day after launch?No won
- Ranger FDV above $60M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.