TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6b34…b5b5

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
77
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: UFC, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category UFC at 56 out of 100; worst College Football at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
UFC Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT4560%27 W · 18 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
UFC — the 45 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims)backed Yaroslav Amosov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$9.25
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Charles Oliveira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$25.2
UFC Fight Night: Geoff Neal vs. Uros Medic (Welterweight, Prelims)backed Uros Medic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+185.7%+$52
UFC Fight Night: Alden Coria vs. Luis Gurule (Flyweight, Prelims)backed Gurule · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$31
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Volkanovski · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+66.7%+$8
UFC 325: Fiziev vs. Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Ruffy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+92.3%+$9.6
UFC 325: Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Hooker · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$22
UFC 325: Tuivasa vs. Teixeira (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Tuivasa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$22.4
UFC 325: Finney vs. Malkoun (Middleweight, Prelims)backed Finney · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$90
UFC 325: Elliott vs. Micallef (Welterweight, Early Prelims)backed Micallef · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+81.8%+$9
Will the fight be won by submission?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+81.8%+$9
Fight to Go the Distance?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$14.39
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Gaethje · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+211.2%+$156.1
UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed O'Malley · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+49.3%+$33
UFC 324: Lewis vs. Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Lewis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$16.4
UFC 324: Pulyaev vs. Gautier (Middleweight, Prelims)backed Pulyaev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$31.68
UFC Fight Night: Green vs. Gibson Jr. (Catchweight, Prelims)backed Gibson Jr. · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$32
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Amosov (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Amosov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST+25%+$8
UFC Fight Night: Asplund vs. Sharaf (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Asplund · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST+49.3%+$33
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Yan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+334.8%+$66.96
Fight to Go the Distance?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+25%+$5
UFC 323: Pantoja vs. Van (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Van · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+194.1%+$66
UFC 323: Cejudo vs. Talbott (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Talbott · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+44.9%+$15.5
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Machado Garry · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+38.9%+$28
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Menifield (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Menifield · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$10.5
Showing 25 of 45 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+61.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$62
Moonbirds FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+44.7%+$55.13
Ranger FDV above $40M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+37.9%+$38.5
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Lighter Airdrop on December 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+185.7%+$71.5
Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+809.1%+$89
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST+33.3%+$33.33
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 20? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$11
Meteora FDV above $2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$54.5
All 10 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST40%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick75cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$44.93
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT+41%+$6.15
All 2 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 26, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Raptors vs. Wizardsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$22.2
Celtics vs. Pacersbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST+33.3%+$7.5
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+220%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+220%+$40.68
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 12, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Yakutou Brothers (BO3)backed Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST+72.4%+$46.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Congress passes funding bill before Trump inauguration?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST+28.2%+$3.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
DeepSeek better than all OpenAI models before March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST+28.2%+$4.23
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST+27.6%+$3.03
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 27, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Preasy Mix vs CSDIILIT (BO3)backed Preasy Mix · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST+25%+$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Dec 27, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST+25%+$6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro out in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$153
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Dec 13, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Çaykur Rizespor win on 2025-12-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 30, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rams vs. Falconsbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$39
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 27, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pittsburgh vs. East Carolinabacked Pittsburgh · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$39.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.