Token Launches · resolved market
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2423b6987ae1e0f9a13e5a06140804201103abf0f2476e21dcb2d07e1539ed0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $789,511
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $760,876
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $789,511 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x954b…46b1backed Yes | 0c | 41,397$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 30,359$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.16 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Yes | 0c | 24,004$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…77d9backed Yes | 1c | 20,278$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.91 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf208…5eefbacked Yes | 1c | 20,106$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2929…a3a5backed Yes | 0c | 19,744$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 6c | 17,632$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,098.93 | 61 | 16.4%10 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 0c | 15,288$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.86 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Yes | 1c | 11,216$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd9…8ea6backed Yes | 1c | 10,714$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14b9…f378backed Yes | 3c | 10,000$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.17 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8b…30e4backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…ba94backed Yes | 1c | 9,500$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c3…867dbacked Yes | 1c | 9,194$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…ca87backed Yes | 1c | 9,000$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdde…c019backed Yes | 1c | 8,100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 8,098$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x807c…f1e3backed Yes | 0c | 8,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4433…f097backed Yes | 1c | 7,092$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b5…c605backed Yes | 19c | 6,690$1,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,239.12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eba…33bdbacked Yes | 16c | 6,266$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 26cpaid | -80%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82e3…2151backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7529…5cd7backed Yes | 3c | 4,500$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.5 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,500$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…64edbacked Yes | 0c | 3,304$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 14c | 3,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…f72ebacked No | 80c | 3,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x679d…6f07backed Yes | 0c | 2,937$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x107d…1c18backed Yes | 12c | 2,879$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…0dd5backed Yes | 0c | 2,667$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc44b…b202backed Yes | 1c | 2,615$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c7…a21cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf44b…5bc6backed Yes | 1c | 2,241$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c55…10ddbacked Yes | 2c | 2,200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…c79abacked Yes | 1c | 2,006$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d88…9456backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd49d…8ee0backed Yes | 15c | 1,983$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.47 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63e5…ff32backed Yes | 15c | 1,810$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6c…fcfcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,799$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1923…7879backed Yes | 1c | 1,738$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23e8…981abacked Yes | 14c | 1,734$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.46 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd84…b58abacked Yes | 14c | 1,692$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.88 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e10…beeebacked Yes | 1c | 1,637$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c8…2a8dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,433$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…21b0backed Yes | 1c | 1,389$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +8.0wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb4…f59dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…cf2ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d03…32c1backed Yes | 15c | 1,206$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd553…6af5backed Yes | 16c | 1,144$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5898…5028backed Yes | 13c | 903.05$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee2…bea6backed Yes | 22c | 900$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4495…da0abacked Yes | 15c | 870.07$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.51 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +44%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e2…1585backed Yes | 15c | 846.67$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x672c…7afdbacked Yes | 15c | 798.24$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f24…bf31backed Yes | 16c | 772.77$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb71…fbf2backed Yes | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a9…c3cabacked Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bcb…ebd6backed Yes | 20c | 631.25$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…1081backed Yes | 13c | 569.23$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0067…6667backed Yes | 18c | 529.5$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45f4…631dbacked Yes | 14c | 501.63$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.93 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac10…69b1backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +98.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e68…357ebacked Yes | 6c | 477.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x239c…ff3ebacked Yes | 14c | 377.44$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a13…e0f9backed Yes | 17c | 375.49$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed Yes | 14c | 374.57$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a3…c8debacked Yes | 13c | 341.38$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a64…0ee3backed Yes | 23c | 330.43$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Yes | 23c | 326.09$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 144 | 37.5%54 W · 90 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf75…f10fbacked No | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b75…8f36backed Yes | 21c | 273.86$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf89…ede6backed Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75aa…3bbdbacked No | 80c | 249$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf811…69babacked Yes | 18c | 222.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x609a…a4d7backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd3…4191backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96bf…bc30backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x105a…50ddbacked Yes | 7c | 194.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cec…a753backed Yes | 11c | 190$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d3…bb0abacked Yes | 19c | 184.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdee3…bca7backed Yes | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133f…15c4backed Yes | 13c | 159.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 25cpaid | +218%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 125$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x655d…abfebacked Yes | 12c | 108.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33b5…0490backed Yes | 20c | 108.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f1…2d5fbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x646c…3210backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2260…ad28backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…3b02backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9126…1896backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b76…a48abacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x921f…8003backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -71%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7420…7835backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbe…2030backed No | 51c | 95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -46%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95a1…7cc7backed Yes | 19c | 90.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x825f…0997backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6926…ce5dbacked Yes | 15c | 80.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49fa…014abacked Yes | 19c | 73.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 20? this page
- Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 15? Yes won
- Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 31?Yes won
- Will Monad perform an airdrop by June 30?Yes won
- Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15? No won
- Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 25? Yes won
- Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 30? Yes won
- Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? No won
- Will Monad perform an airdrop by September 30? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.